Description du projet
Un nouveau système d’alerte pour la météorologie spatiale
Un orage géomagnétique est une perturbation majeure de la magnétosphère terrestre, qui se produit lorsqu’il y a un échange très efficace d’énergie entre le vent solaire et l’environnement spatial entourant la Terre. Il est essentiel d’être en mesure de prévoir ces tempêtes. C’est l’objectif du projet PAGER, financé par l’UE, qui a réuni une équipe d’experts universitaires et industriels de premier plan dans les domaines de la recherche sur la météorologie spatiale, de la physique spatiale, de la modélisation des données empiriques et des effets de l’environnement intersidéral sur les engins spatiaux lancés par l’Europe et des États-Unis. Le projet proposera des prévisions probabilistes à un ou deux jours concernant les environnements des courants annulaires et des ceintures de radiation. Cela permettra aux opérateurs de satellites de réagir aux prévisions présentant un risque potentiel. Les codes les plus avancés seront utilisés et adaptés afin d’effectuer des simulations d’ensemble et des quantifications d’incertitude.
Objectif
The PAGER project will provide space weather predictions that will be initiated from observations on the Sun and will predict radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current will allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes will allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. We will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we will use the most advanced codes that currently exist. Codes outside of Europe will be transferred to operation in Europe, such as components of the state-of-the-art Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). We will adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and will perform uncertainty quantifications. The project will include a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. Consultations with stakeholders will be central for the project. We will reach out to scientific, industry and government stakeholders and will tailor our products for the stakeholder’s needs and requirements. Dissemination of the results will play a central role in the project. Our team includes leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.
Champ scientifique
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorology
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringastronautical engineeringspacecraft
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringsatellite technology
- natural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomygalactic astronomysolar physics
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Régime de financement
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinateur
14473 POTSDAM
Allemagne