Descrizione del progetto
Nuovo sistema di segnalazione per la meteorologia spaziale
Una tempesta geomagnetica è una grossa perturbazione che colpisce la magnetosfera terrestre. Avviene quando è presente uno scambio molto efficiente di energia dal vento solare allo spazio che circonda la Terra. La previsione di queste tempeste è cruciale. È questo l’obiettivo del progetto PAGER, finanziato dall’UE, che ha raccolto un team di importanti esperti accademici e del settore in materia di ricerca nella meteorologia spaziale, fisica spaziale, modellazione empirica dei dati ed effetti dell’ambiente spaziale sui veicoli spaziali provenienti da Europa e Stati Uniti. Il progetto fornirà una previsione probabilistica di 1-2 giorni degli ambienti interessati dalla corrente ad anello e dalla fascia di Van Allen. Ciò consentirà agli operatori satellitari di rispondere alle previsioni che presentano una minaccia. Verranno impiegati i codici più avanzati, adattati in modo tale da eseguire simulazioni d’insieme e quantificazioni dell’incertezza.
Obiettivo
The PAGER project will provide space weather predictions that will be initiated from observations on the Sun and will predict radiation in space and its effects on satellite infrastructure. Real-time predictions and a historical record of the dynamics of the cold plasma density and ring current will allow for evaluation of surface charging, and predictions of the relativistic electron fluxes will allow for the evaluation of deep dielectric charging. We will provide a 1-2 day probabilistic forecast of ring current and radiation belt environments, which will allow satellite operators to respond to predictions that present a significant threat. As a backbone of the project, we will use the most advanced codes that currently exist. Codes outside of Europe will be transferred to operation in Europe, such as components of the state-of-the-art Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). We will adapt existing codes to perform ensemble simulations and will perform uncertainty quantifications. The project will include a number of innovative tools including data assimilation and uncertainty quantification, new models of near-Earth electromagnetic wave environment, ensemble predictions of solar wind parameters at L1, and data-driven forecast of the geomangetic Kp index and plasma density. The developed codes may be used in the future for realistic modelling of extreme space weather events. Consultations with stakeholders will be central for the project. We will reach out to scientific, industry and government stakeholders and will tailor our products for the stakeholder’s needs and requirements. Dissemination of the results will play a central role in the project. Our team includes leading academic and industry experts in space weather research, space physics, empirical data modelling, and space environment effects on spacecraft from Europe and the US.
Campo scientifico
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorology
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringastronautical engineeringspacecraft
- engineering and technologymechanical engineeringvehicle engineeringaerospace engineeringsatellite technology
- natural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomygalactic astronomysolar physics
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
RIA - Research and Innovation actionCoordinatore
14473 POTSDAM
Germania