Project description
Improving the reliability of seasonal forecasting
Reliable seasonal forecasts provide vital information about the upcoming season – whether it will be wetter, drier, warmer or colder than normal. This information is important for many weather-sensitive sectors like renewable energy and just as important for better disaster preparedness. The EU-funded CLIMFOR project is developing an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data that can produce very reliable seasonal (from a few weeks up to a decade) forecasts. Its key objective is to improve how risks and opportunities arising from global change are currently addressed through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid.
Objective
6,873 natural disasters happened worldwide in the period 1994-2013 (e.g. floods, drought, and other extreme weather phenomena) killing 68,000 people and affecting 218 million more annually. The early implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction strategies strongly depends on the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts. But global, long-term climate forecasting models are used for seasonal prediction and they are very inaccurate as they have not been designed to this end. On the other hand, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is a challenge to grid operators, utilities and plant managers as they attempt to anticipate energy output. Reliable weather forecasts enabling an accurate prediction of energy generation in order to balance production and demand is key to boost the production of renewables and their smooth integration into the grid. Current weather forecasts used by this industry do not focus in predicting relevant variables for the energy sector (such as solar radiation). At geopredict we have put the most recent mathematical algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence into the task of revolutionising atmospheric forecasts and have created CLIMFOR, an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data producing very reliable seasonal (medium-term: from few weeks up to a decade) forecasts with high spatial resolution (down to 1x1 km). With CLIMFOR we aim at improving the way we currently deal with the risks and opportunities arising from global change through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. By targeting the renewable energy providers, disaster risk reduction players and the insurance sector, we expect to start commercialising CLIMFOR service in 2021 and reach an accumulated revenue of €13 million after 3 years and increase our headcount with almost 25 employees
Fields of science
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energysolar energy
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsfossil energynatural gas
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disasters
Programme(s)
Funding Scheme
SME-1 - SME instrument phase 1Coordinator
17489 GREIFSWALD
Germany
The organization defined itself as SME (small and medium-sized enterprise) at the time the Grant Agreement was signed.