Projektbeschreibung
Mehr Zuverlässigkeit bei saisonalen Wettervorhersagen
Verlässliche saisonale Wettervorhersagen liefern wichtige Informationen darüber, ob die kommende Saison feuchter, trockener, wärmer oder kälter wird als normal. Diese Daten wiederum sind wichtig für viele witterungsabhängige Bereiche wie erneuerbare Energien und nicht zuletzt auch für bessere Katastrophenprävention. Das EU-finanzierte Projekt CLIMFOR entwickelt ein intelligentes, probabilistisches Prognosemodul auf Basis von Erdbeobachtungs- und In-Situ-Daten für sehr genaue saisonale Prognosen (mehrere Wochen bis zu einem Jahrzehnt). Schwerpunkt dessen ist, den derzeitigen Umgang mit Risiken und Möglichkeiten, die der globale Wandel mit sich bringt, durch Klimaverhandlungen, nachhaltige Entwicklungspolitik, humanitäre Hilfe und Krisenmanagement zu verbessern, und erneuerbare Energieträger reibungslos in das Stromnetz zu integrieren.
Ziel
6,873 natural disasters happened worldwide in the period 1994-2013 (e.g. floods, drought, and other extreme weather phenomena) killing 68,000 people and affecting 218 million more annually. The early implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction strategies strongly depends on the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts. But global, long-term climate forecasting models are used for seasonal prediction and they are very inaccurate as they have not been designed to this end. On the other hand, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is a challenge to grid operators, utilities and plant managers as they attempt to anticipate energy output. Reliable weather forecasts enabling an accurate prediction of energy generation in order to balance production and demand is key to boost the production of renewables and their smooth integration into the grid. Current weather forecasts used by this industry do not focus in predicting relevant variables for the energy sector (such as solar radiation). At geopredict we have put the most recent mathematical algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence into the task of revolutionising atmospheric forecasts and have created CLIMFOR, an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data producing very reliable seasonal (medium-term: from few weeks up to a decade) forecasts with high spatial resolution (down to 1x1 km). With CLIMFOR we aim at improving the way we currently deal with the risks and opportunities arising from global change through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. By targeting the renewable energy providers, disaster risk reduction players and the insurance sector, we expect to start commercialising CLIMFOR service in 2021 and reach an accumulated revenue of €13 million after 3 years and increase our headcount with almost 25 employees
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energysolar energy
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsfossil energynatural gas
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disasters
Programm/Programme
Thema/Themen
Aufforderung zur Vorschlagseinreichung
Andere Projekte für diesen Aufruf anzeigenUnterauftrag
H2020-SMEInst-2018-2020-1
Finanzierungsplan
SME-1 - SME instrument phase 1Koordinator
17489 GREIFSWALD
Deutschland
Die Organisation definierte sich zum Zeitpunkt der Unterzeichnung der Finanzhilfevereinbarung selbst als KMU (Kleine und mittlere Unternehmen).