Descripción del proyecto
Mejora de la fiabilidad de los pronósticos estacionales
Los pronósticos estacionales fiables proporcionan información vital sobre la próxima temporada, como si será más húmeda, más seca, más cálida o más fría de lo normal. Esta información es importante para muchos sectores sensibles al clima, como el de la energía renovable, e igualmente importante para una mejor preparación ante las catástrofes. El proyecto CLIMFOR, financiado con fondos europeos, está desarrollando un motor de pronóstico inteligente, probabilístico y basado en la observación de la Tierra y en datos «in situ» que puede producir previsiones estacionales muy fiables (desde unas pocas semanas hasta una década). Su objetivo principal es mejorar la manera en que los riesgos y las oportunidades derivados del cambio global se abordan actualmente mediante negociaciones sobre el clima, la política de desarrollo sostenible, la ayuda humanitaria y la gestión de crisis, así como permitir una integración sin problemas de las fuentes de energía renovables en la red.
Objetivo
6,873 natural disasters happened worldwide in the period 1994-2013 (e.g. floods, drought, and other extreme weather phenomena) killing 68,000 people and affecting 218 million more annually. The early implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction strategies strongly depends on the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts. But global, long-term climate forecasting models are used for seasonal prediction and they are very inaccurate as they have not been designed to this end. On the other hand, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is a challenge to grid operators, utilities and plant managers as they attempt to anticipate energy output. Reliable weather forecasts enabling an accurate prediction of energy generation in order to balance production and demand is key to boost the production of renewables and their smooth integration into the grid. Current weather forecasts used by this industry do not focus in predicting relevant variables for the energy sector (such as solar radiation). At geopredict we have put the most recent mathematical algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence into the task of revolutionising atmospheric forecasts and have created CLIMFOR, an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data producing very reliable seasonal (medium-term: from few weeks up to a decade) forecasts with high spatial resolution (down to 1x1 km). With CLIMFOR we aim at improving the way we currently deal with the risks and opportunities arising from global change through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. By targeting the renewable energy providers, disaster risk reduction players and the insurance sector, we expect to start commercialising CLIMFOR service in 2021 and reach an accumulated revenue of €13 million after 3 years and increase our headcount with almost 25 employees
Ámbito científico
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energysolar energy
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsfossil energynatural gas
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disasters
Programa(s)
Convocatoria de propuestas
Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoriaConvocatoria de subcontratación
H2020-SMEInst-2018-2020-1
Régimen de financiación
SME-1 - SME instrument phase 1Coordinador
17489 GREIFSWALD
Alemania
Organización definida por ella misma como pequeña y mediana empresa (pyme) en el momento de la firma del acuerdo de subvención.