Descrizione del progetto
Migliorare l’affidabilità delle previsioni stagionali
Previsioni stagionali affidabili forniscono informazioni vitali sulla stagione in arrivo, sia che sia più umida, più secca, più calda o più fredda del normale. Queste informazioni sono importanti per molti settori sensibili alle condizioni meteorologiche, come le energie rinnovabili, e altrettanto importanti per una migliore preparazione alle catastrofi. Il progetto CLIMFOR, finanziato dall’UE, sta sviluppando un motore di previsione intelligente, probabilistico e basato sull’osservazione della terra e su dati in situ in grado di produrre previsioni stagionali (da poche settimane a un decennio) molto affidabili. L’obiettivo principale è migliorare il modo in cui i rischi e le opportunità derivanti dal cambiamento globale sono attualmente affrontati attraverso i negoziati sul clima, la politica di sviluppo sostenibile, gli aiuti umanitari e la gestione delle crisi, oltre a consentire un’agevole integrazione delle fonti di energia rinnovabile nella rete.
Obiettivo
6,873 natural disasters happened worldwide in the period 1994-2013 (e.g. floods, drought, and other extreme weather phenomena) killing 68,000 people and affecting 218 million more annually. The early implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction strategies strongly depends on the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts. But global, long-term climate forecasting models are used for seasonal prediction and they are very inaccurate as they have not been designed to this end. On the other hand, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is a challenge to grid operators, utilities and plant managers as they attempt to anticipate energy output. Reliable weather forecasts enabling an accurate prediction of energy generation in order to balance production and demand is key to boost the production of renewables and their smooth integration into the grid. Current weather forecasts used by this industry do not focus in predicting relevant variables for the energy sector (such as solar radiation). At geopredict we have put the most recent mathematical algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence into the task of revolutionising atmospheric forecasts and have created CLIMFOR, an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data producing very reliable seasonal (medium-term: from few weeks up to a decade) forecasts with high spatial resolution (down to 1x1 km). With CLIMFOR we aim at improving the way we currently deal with the risks and opportunities arising from global change through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. By targeting the renewable energy providers, disaster risk reduction players and the insurance sector, we expect to start commercialising CLIMFOR service in 2021 and reach an accumulated revenue of €13 million after 3 years and increase our headcount with almost 25 employees
Campo scientifico
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energysolar energy
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsfossil energynatural gas
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disasters
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Invito a presentare proposte
Vedi altri progetti per questo bandoBando secondario
H2020-SMEInst-2018-2020-1
Meccanismo di finanziamento
SME-1 - SME instrument phase 1Coordinatore
17489 GREIFSWALD
Germania
L’organizzazione si è definita una PMI (piccola e media impresa) al momento della firma dell’accordo di sovvenzione.