Periodic Reporting for period 2 - DeepDCarb (Deep Decarbonisation: The Democratic Challenge of Navigating Governance Traps)
Berichtszeitraum: 2022-09-01 bis 2024-02-29
Climate change is a grand societal challenge, but society is struggling to provide an effective response. Global emissions continue to rise despite more than thirty years of scientific diplomacy and national policy development.
The main obstacles are not simply scientific or technological, but profoundly political. The DeepDCarb project is focusing on the political challenges of achieving – to quote the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – ‘deep, rapid and sustained reductions’ in greenhouse gas emissions.
While existing research confirms that societal concern is prominent, there remains disagreement on who should do what, when and how. Political backlashes against net zero policies in the UK and Germany have demonstrated the political nature of the challenge. Some have claimed that deep decarbonisation is bedevilled by a “governance trap” through which publics and politicians “seek to attribute primary responsibility to the other, and thus neither acts in a decisive way” (Pidgeon 2012, p. s89).
DeepDCarb is interrogating the relationship between politicians, citizens/voters and others in a uniquely detailed and comparative manner. Its Aim is to understand the conditions under which different political systems – from mature democracies to autocracies – (do not) adopt policy and institutional devices that drive deep, rapid and sustained climate action. It has three Objectives, pursued through five work packages (WPs):
1. To explore what policy measures have been adopted by different countries (principally the 41 largest emitters and the 5 BRICS states), via a nested array of data sets and statistical techniques (WP2).
2. To open up the black box of societal commitment to understand how the relationship between politicians and publics plays out in a selection of countries (WPs1-4).
3. To investigate the scope for unlocking any ‘governance traps’ by combining actors’ perspectives via interviews and focus groups (WPs3-4).
WP5’s task is to disseminate the main findings to a variety of audiences including politicians, policy makers and academics via open access articles, two books and briefing papers.
For further details please visit the project website: deepdcarb.org
The main obstacles are not simply scientific or technological, but profoundly political. The DeepDCarb project is focusing on the political challenges of achieving – to quote the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – ‘deep, rapid and sustained reductions’ in greenhouse gas emissions.
While existing research confirms that societal concern is prominent, there remains disagreement on who should do what, when and how. Political backlashes against net zero policies in the UK and Germany have demonstrated the political nature of the challenge. Some have claimed that deep decarbonisation is bedevilled by a “governance trap” through which publics and politicians “seek to attribute primary responsibility to the other, and thus neither acts in a decisive way” (Pidgeon 2012, p. s89).
DeepDCarb is interrogating the relationship between politicians, citizens/voters and others in a uniquely detailed and comparative manner. Its Aim is to understand the conditions under which different political systems – from mature democracies to autocracies – (do not) adopt policy and institutional devices that drive deep, rapid and sustained climate action. It has three Objectives, pursued through five work packages (WPs):
1. To explore what policy measures have been adopted by different countries (principally the 41 largest emitters and the 5 BRICS states), via a nested array of data sets and statistical techniques (WP2).
2. To open up the black box of societal commitment to understand how the relationship between politicians and publics plays out in a selection of countries (WPs1-4).
3. To investigate the scope for unlocking any ‘governance traps’ by combining actors’ perspectives via interviews and focus groups (WPs3-4).
WP5’s task is to disseminate the main findings to a variety of audiences including politicians, policy makers and academics via open access articles, two books and briefing papers.
For further details please visit the project website: deepdcarb.org
During the first half of the project, the team has focused on: (1) reviewing existing literatures; and (2) amalgamating and cross-checking existing data sources.
With respect to (1), WP1 has produced several state-of-the-art review papers. One of them built bridges between literatures to define new research priorities. Published in the Nature journal npj Climate Action, it has been downloaded over 6,000 times. More are planned.
WP1 also organised a workshop in Mannheim, Germany, which brought together international experts on climate policy and politics. The papers are being prepared for publication in a Special Issue of the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis. Another external expert workshop is planned for 2024-5.
With respect to (2), WP2 has combed through existing policy datasets. To understand how politicians speak about climate change, WP3 has collected parliamentary data in 4 countries (Canada, Germany, South Africa and UK) over at least two consecutive legislative periods.
Existing data has also been re-assembled into new datasets. One of them on policy covers the period 1946-2020 and most countries of the world; another focuses on the world’s biggest emitters. All policy datasets are in an easy-to-use format and include codebooks. Statistical analysis will occur during the second half of the project.
Finally, existing datasets on public opinion have been identified and reviewed (WP3-4), e.g. the European Social Survey, and the EU (Eurobarometer, climate ambassadors). Some of this work has informed the writing of academic papers.
In summary, the six deliverables associated with this work have been successfully delivered on schedule.
In the second half of the project, the tasks will become considerably more challenging as the emphasis shifts towards collecting and analysing fresh data. For example, researchers are currently in the field undertaking elite interviews with MPs in the UK and Germany. Surveys are also being fielded with MPs in both countries. Original data collection on publics views is about to start in five countries (Great Britain, Germany, Canada, Chile, South Africa), following a procurement process. Planning for focus groups with publics in Germany and the UK will commence in 2024.
With respect to (1), WP1 has produced several state-of-the-art review papers. One of them built bridges between literatures to define new research priorities. Published in the Nature journal npj Climate Action, it has been downloaded over 6,000 times. More are planned.
WP1 also organised a workshop in Mannheim, Germany, which brought together international experts on climate policy and politics. The papers are being prepared for publication in a Special Issue of the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis. Another external expert workshop is planned for 2024-5.
With respect to (2), WP2 has combed through existing policy datasets. To understand how politicians speak about climate change, WP3 has collected parliamentary data in 4 countries (Canada, Germany, South Africa and UK) over at least two consecutive legislative periods.
Existing data has also been re-assembled into new datasets. One of them on policy covers the period 1946-2020 and most countries of the world; another focuses on the world’s biggest emitters. All policy datasets are in an easy-to-use format and include codebooks. Statistical analysis will occur during the second half of the project.
Finally, existing datasets on public opinion have been identified and reviewed (WP3-4), e.g. the European Social Survey, and the EU (Eurobarometer, climate ambassadors). Some of this work has informed the writing of academic papers.
In summary, the six deliverables associated with this work have been successfully delivered on schedule.
In the second half of the project, the tasks will become considerably more challenging as the emphasis shifts towards collecting and analysing fresh data. For example, researchers are currently in the field undertaking elite interviews with MPs in the UK and Germany. Surveys are also being fielded with MPs in both countries. Original data collection on publics views is about to start in five countries (Great Britain, Germany, Canada, Chile, South Africa), following a procurement process. Planning for focus groups with publics in Germany and the UK will commence in 2024.
In our original proposal we suggested that DeepDCarb “will have succeeded if it has established a new sub-field of interdisciplinary research” that explores the conditions in which societies commit to deep, rapid and sustained reductions in emissions.
Thirty months into the work we are actively working towards that end, building new bridges between relevant literatures in political science, sociology and psychology. For example:
• the whole team outlined a new, more integrated research agenda for the sub-field. The paper, which was published in the Nature journal npj Climate Action, has been downloaded over 6,000 times.
• A special issue of the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis is in production, which seeks to consolidate the new sub-field, by publishing new work linking the politics associated with the adoption of new climate policies and the public backlash against existing ones.
• Prof Jale Tosun (a project Co-I) is further developing the new sub-field by taking on the editorship of npj Climate Action.
Next, the project will collect and analyse new data to provide:
• A more in-depth understanding of politicians' perspectives (via interviews and surveys) and of publics (via cross national surveys and focus groups);
• An original, cross-national analysis of policy responses drawing on both existing and new data;
• A further consolidation of the new sub-field, to offer a fuller understanding of the conditions in which societal commitment to deep decarbonisation is (not) achieved.
Finally, our work is attracting considerable interest from academic publishers. We are delighted that we have been by contracted by Oxford University Press to publish two interdisciplinary monographs. These will showcase the project’s main findings and will be fully open access. One referee proclaimed that one volume will “indeed be a significant contribution to the comparative study of the politics and policy of climate change”; another said they were “confident there is a large market” for the other.
In the next 12 months we expect to publish a systematic review of the literature on politicians and climate change.
Thirty months into the work we are actively working towards that end, building new bridges between relevant literatures in political science, sociology and psychology. For example:
• the whole team outlined a new, more integrated research agenda for the sub-field. The paper, which was published in the Nature journal npj Climate Action, has been downloaded over 6,000 times.
• A special issue of the Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis is in production, which seeks to consolidate the new sub-field, by publishing new work linking the politics associated with the adoption of new climate policies and the public backlash against existing ones.
• Prof Jale Tosun (a project Co-I) is further developing the new sub-field by taking on the editorship of npj Climate Action.
Next, the project will collect and analyse new data to provide:
• A more in-depth understanding of politicians' perspectives (via interviews and surveys) and of publics (via cross national surveys and focus groups);
• An original, cross-national analysis of policy responses drawing on both existing and new data;
• A further consolidation of the new sub-field, to offer a fuller understanding of the conditions in which societal commitment to deep decarbonisation is (not) achieved.
Finally, our work is attracting considerable interest from academic publishers. We are delighted that we have been by contracted by Oxford University Press to publish two interdisciplinary monographs. These will showcase the project’s main findings and will be fully open access. One referee proclaimed that one volume will “indeed be a significant contribution to the comparative study of the politics and policy of climate change”; another said they were “confident there is a large market” for the other.
In the next 12 months we expect to publish a systematic review of the literature on politicians and climate change.