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Meteorological uncertainty management for Flow Management Positions

Periodic Reporting for period 2 - FMPMet (Meteorological uncertainty management for Flow Management Positions)

Berichtszeitraum: 2021-05-01 bis 2022-10-31

Weather is difficult to predict even with the help of the latest in forecasting technology, but an accurate weather outlook is crucial for air traffic management. As such, meteorological forecast uncertainty should be included in the decision-making process. The framework for this project is the integration of MET forecast uncertainty information into the decision-making process for Flow Management Positions (FMP), an operational position that monitors the level of traffic in airspace sectors, and coordinates flow measures when an excess of demand over capacity is detected. This project uses Ensemble Weather Forecasting to quantify the MET forecast uncertainty, that is, the uncertainty is defined by scenarios.

Thus, FMP-Met deals with the provision of probabilistic forecasts of sector demand, sector complexity, and sector capacity reduction under convective weather for a forecasting horizon of 8 hours. The overall objective is to provide the FMP with an intuitive and interpretable probabilistic assessment of the impact of convective weather on the traffic, up to 8 hours in advance, to allow better-informed decision making. The importance of this project for society is linked to the benefits for the passengers and the different stakeholders expected from the outcome of the project.
The work done in the project is summarized next per Work Package (WP), making reference to deliverables (Dx.y) and milestones (MS).

1) The following activities have been carried out in WP1:
• signature of the Consortium Agreement (MS1);
• organization of the Kick-Off Meeting (MS2);
• elaboration of the Project Management Plan (D1.1);
• appointment of the Advisory Board members;
• organization of the 4 Steering Board Meetings (MS4, MS5, MS8, MS9);
• elaboration of the 3 Annual Progress Reports (D1.1.010 D1.1.020 D1.1.030);
• elaboration of the Validation Plan and definition of the Validation Exercise;
• elaboration of the 1st Periodic Technical and Financial Progress Report;
• elaboration of the TRL Assessment Report (D1.3 MS10); the assessment is positive, and, therefore, we can claim that the goal of reaching TRL 1 at the end of the project has been achieved;
• elaboration of the Final Project Results Report (D1.2);
• preparation of the Intermediate Review and Close-Out Meetings (MS6, MS13).

2) In WP2 the Concept of Operations has been developed (D2.1). After the SJU review and the assessments of the Advisory Board members, an updated version has been produced. Deliverable D2.1 was approved on 21/12/20.

3) In WP3 the meteorological input has been defined (D3.1) and the methodology to produce a probabilistic nowcast has been developed. Deliverable D3.1 was approved on 16/12/20.

4) In WP4 a methodology to predict probabilistic aircraft trajectories using multi-scale convective weather information has been developed. The core of this work is to effectively propagate uncertainties from a given current state up to look-ahead times of 8 hours. Deliverable D4.1 was approved on 04/06/21.

5) In WP5 the methodologies to predict probabilistic sector demand and sector congestion, under convective weather in multi-sector scenarios, have been developed. The input trajectories come from WP4, and the capacity measure from WP6. Deliverable D5.1 was approved on 14/01/22.

6) In WP6 the methodologies to predict probabilistic sector capacity reduction caused by adverse weather, and sector complexity, under convective weather, in multi-sector scenarios, have been developed. Again, WP4 provides the input trajectories. Deliverable D6.1 was approved on 31/01/22.

7) In WP7 the assessment of the Project is presented. The assessment has 2 main parts: 1) Assessment of the probabilistic methodologies developed for traffic analysis, and 2) Validation of the operational concept developed in the project (validation based on FMPs’ feedback via questionnaires). The overall assessment is quite positive. Deliverable D7.1 was approved on 08/07/22.

8) In WP 8 the dissemination, communication, exploitation and data management plans have been elaborated (D8.1 D8.2 D8.3 and D8.4). The Data Managemnet Plan has beed updated twice with the data used in WP4 and WPs 5-7.
Different dissemination and communication activities have been carried out:
• construction of the FMP-Met website (MS3);
• Twitter and Research Gate profiles;
• participation in the ER/IR MET&ENV Workshop organized by the SJU (1/10/2020);
• presentation of posters and videos at SID’20 (MS7) and SID'21 (MS11);
• participation in the 3rd Engage TC3 Workshop organized by SESAR (09/09/21);
• participation in ICRAT 2022 conference (in June 2022), presenting a paper;
• preparation of a contribution to SESAR ER4 Projects Results Brochure (June 2022).
To coordinate and to find synergies with other projects, the following activities have been carried out:
• participation in ER/IR MET&ENV workshops, organized by the SJU, on 01/10/20 and 19/01/22;
• attendance to the 2nd ISOBAR Project Workshop, on-line, on 20/09/2021;
• participation in ER4 MET&ENV SESAR Projects Workshop, organized by CREATE project, on 06/07/22, attended by all FMP-Met project members (MS12). A leaflet describing FMP-Met contribution has been prepared (July 2022).
The following exploitation activity has been carried out: development of the Meteorological Interpolation Toolbox for Optimization and Simulation (METINTOS) library.

The main outcome of the project is the development of two probabilistic methodologies to forecast sector congestion (coming from the combination of probabilistic demand and capacity reduction) and traffic complexity. These methodologies have led to the definition of a tool concept that could easily incorporate the new features, in the form of a new tool layer added to the tools currently employed by FMPs. This concept has been positively assessed by FMP experts.
The expected outcome of the project is the development of a methodology intended to improve the decision-making process for FMPs. More specifically, a methodology to generate probabilistic predictions of demand-capacity balance to be used in conjunction with the tools currently used by FMPs.

The novelty of the concept developed is the integration of weather information into the FMP tools and of uncertainty information into the FMP decision-making process under adverse weather, with an extended lead time of 8 hours (which requires the use of different probabilistic weather forecast products, with different lead times and coverage areas). This concept also facilitates the consideration of other sources of uncertainty in addition to the meteorological one, such as the uncertainty in the take-off time and the uncertainty linked to the storm avoidance strategy.

The potential impact of this project, from the point of view of the overall efficiency of the ATM system, will be the improvement of the decision-making process in traffic flow management under convective weather. Indeed, the provision of a trustworthy forecast of the future sector demand and complexity and of a reliable estimation of the impact of the convective weather on the sector capacity will support the FMP in taking anticipated, appropriate, and timely tactical flow measures, which will ultimately reduce flight delays and improve passenger journeys.

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