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Demographic consequences of humanitarian crises in Latin America

Project description

Assessing the demographic impact of the humanitarian crisis in Latin America

For decades, Latin American countries have been affected by natural threats, political and economic crises and armed conflicts, resulting in an extended humanitarian crisis. Since 1994, the European Commission has provided more than EUR 1 billion for humanitarian assistance to countries facing a humanitarian crisis. However, the demographic impacts of these crises and the humanitarian aid outreach is yet to be assessed, due to the lack of reliable official regional data. Insufficient data result in shortcomings in providing humanitarian aid. The EU-funded DEMOcrises project will provide accurate demographic assessments to advance our understanding of the complex dimensions of the humanitarian crisis in Latin America, using Venezuela as a model. The project will apply innovative statistical techniques to obtain reliable data to support humanitarian aid plans.


Latin American countries are vulnerable to a range of natural hazards; to political and economic crises; and to armed conflicts. Since 1994, the European Commission has provided over €1 billion in assistance to Latin American countries facing humanitarian crisis. However, little is known about the demographic impacts of those crises and the humanitarian aid outreach. The reason could be attributable to the lack of good quality in regional official data. Inadequate estimates have implications on the attention that a humanitarian crisis receives, as policy makers need to be aware of the sensitivity of changes in accurate figures and rates. The main objective of this project is to produce accurate demographic estimates that enlighten our understanding of the complex dimensions of a humanitarian crisis in Latin America, using Venezuela as an example. Venezuela is currently undergoing a profound social and economic crisis with far-reaching consequences for its demographic trends. As migration became the only survival strategy possible for most Venezuelans, the crisis has been spilling over the continent, leaving no country in Latin America unaffected. Studies on the demographic consequences of a catastrophe usually refer to events in the distance past, in this regard; the main innovations of this project is to produce accurate updated estimates for keeping track of the demographic consequence of an ongoing crisis. To achieve this, I will (1) apply advanced statistical techniques and demographic (in)direct methods to ensure high-quality and updated demographic estimates of an ongoing crisis; (2) forecast demographic responses to the crisis in order to shed light on public policy design and on humanitarian aid preparedness plans; and (3) use a cross-country comparison and regional perspective to account for the feedback effects among neighbouring nations.


Net EU contribution
€ 257 619,84
9 cours des Humanités
93322 Aubervilliers Cedex

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Ile-de-France Ile-de-France Seine-Saint-Denis
Activity type
Research Organisations
Total cost
€ 257 619,84

Partners (1)