Descripción del proyecto
Evaluación del impacto demográfico de la crisis humanitaria en Latinoamérica
Durante décadas, los países latinoamericanos se han visto azotados por amenazas naturales, crisis políticas y económicas, y conflictos armados que han provocado una crisis humanitaria prolongada. Desde 1994, la Comisión Europea ha proporcionado más de 1 000 millones EUR de ayuda humanitaria a países afectados por una crisis humanitaria. Sin embargo, a causa de la falta de datos regionales oficiales fiables, todavía están pendientes de evaluar el impacto demográfico de esas crisis y el alcance de la ayuda humanitaria. La insuficiencia de datos provoca carencias en el suministro de ayuda humanitaria. El proyecto financiado con fondos europeos DEMOcrises proporcionará unas evaluaciones demográficas fiables para mejorar nuestra comprensión de las complejas dimensiones de la crisis humanitaria en Latinoamérica utilizando como modelo a Venezuela. El proyecto aplicará innovadoras técnicas estadísticas para obtener datos fiables que respalden los planes de ayuda humanitaria.
Objetivo
Latin American countries are vulnerable to a range of natural hazards; to political and economic crises; and to armed conflicts. Since 1994, the European Commission has provided over €1 billion in assistance to Latin American countries facing humanitarian crisis. However, little is known about the demographic impacts of those crises and the humanitarian aid outreach. The reason could be attributable to the lack of good quality in regional official data. Inadequate estimates have implications on the attention that a humanitarian crisis receives, as policy makers need to be aware of the sensitivity of changes in accurate figures and rates. The main objective of this project is to produce accurate demographic estimates that enlighten our understanding of the complex dimensions of a humanitarian crisis in Latin America, using Venezuela as an example. Venezuela is currently undergoing a profound social and economic crisis with far-reaching consequences for its demographic trends. As migration became the only survival strategy possible for most Venezuelans, the crisis has been spilling over the continent, leaving no country in Latin America unaffected. Studies on the demographic consequences of a catastrophe usually refer to events in the distance past, in this regard; the main innovations of this project is to produce accurate updated estimates for keeping track of the demographic consequence of an ongoing crisis. To achieve this, I will (1) apply advanced statistical techniques and demographic (in)direct methods to ensure high-quality and updated demographic estimates of an ongoing crisis; (2) forecast demographic responses to the crisis in order to shed light on public policy design and on humanitarian aid preparedness plans; and (3) use a cross-country comparison and regional perspective to account for the feedback effects among neighbouring nations.
Ámbito científico
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MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinador
93322 Aubervilliers Cedex
Francia