Almost 500 million people live in river deltas, which host among the most important areas for economic activities and global food production on the planet. Relative sea-level rise in delta systems is predominantly caused by land subsidence and accelerating subsidence rates threaten the future existence of these low-lying landforms, including their inhabitants, environment and economy.
Reliable projections of future RSLR are urgently needed to prospect the fate of sinking delta systems but their creation was hampered by our inability to accurately resolve delayed subsidence. This causes uncertainties in subsidence rate projections potentially much larger than climate-change driven rates of sea-level rise.
The InSPiRED (Improving Subsidence PREdictions in Delta systems) MSCA-IF enabled dr. Philip Minderhoud (hereafter: Fellow) to move to the University of Padova in Italy to work in the group of Prof. Pietro Teatini within the Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering (DICEA). In the InSPiRED project the Fellow and the research group at DICEA aimed to improve our ability to quantify delayed subsidence by upgrading a novel, physics-based numerical simulator and to develop an integrated approach to create numerical models and simulate relative sea-level rise (rSLR) projections for sinking coastal-deltaic areas. These projections then aid local delta policymakers to create effective management strategies. The approach was designed for different temporal and spatial scales, ranging from decennial to millennial and from a single marsh to an entire delta, respectively, in three major delta systems, the Po, Mississippi, and Mekong deltas. In addition, the project team also engaged in field experiments in the lagoon of Venice (northern Po Delta) which added valuable field data to calibrate and validate modelling results. During the project a number of successful communication and exploitation activities were undertaken, both communicating the scientific work within the science community and general public, and presenting policy reports to policymakers, translating the science to policy. The planned two-way knowledge exchanged turned out to be very effective. It resulted in the creation of large number of new interdisciplinary research topics and new joint research projects between Prof. Teatini and the Fellow.
These advancements facilitate the design of effective management strategies for local delta policymakers. The approach is designed for different temporal and spatial scales, ranging from decennial to millennial and from a single marsh to an entire delta, respectively, in three major delta systems, the Po, Mississippi, and Mekong deltas. The research has lead to new insights on the present and future evolution of coastal-deltaic environmental settings and enables the improvement of RSLR projections, thus filling a vital knowledge gap for delta policymakers. The research findings have been disseminated to the research community and communicated through public engagement.
