Periodic Reporting for period 2 - GENIE (GENIE: GeoEngineering and NegatIve Emissions pathways in Europe)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-11-01 al 2024-04-30
The path to climate neutrality needs to explicitly consider the roles of solar geoengineering and negative emissions technologies. A meta-analytical framework where social science, engineering, and physical science disciplines merge is necessary for a comprehensive mapping of this transition. The EU-funded GENIE project will explore the environmental, technical, social, legal, ethical and policy dimensions of greenhouse gas removal and solar radiation management. GENIE aims to produce a comprehensive scientific assessment for evidence-based policymaking to address climate change, and to expand our toolkit for a zero-emissions future.
Geoengineering technologies, such as solar radiation management (SRM), and negative emissions technologies, such as greenhouse gas removal (GGR), are emerging options to address climate change. This project will investigate the environmental, technical, social, legal, and policy dimensions of GGR and SRM. We provide an urgently needed interdisciplinary and holistic perspective of these technologies in order to understand conditions under which they might be deployed at scale. Our meta-analytical framework integrates insights from social science, engineering and physical science disciplines to provide a comprehensive view of GGR and SRM in the transition to climate neutrality in Europe and the world. The project will conduct excellent research and generate a robust, scientific assessment for evidence-based policymaking. Our research framework consists of three pillars—techno-economic systems, socio-technical systems, and systems of political action—within which we place six work packages (WPs). These are: (1) Understanding the current state and future potential of GGR and SRM technologies in terms of their technical and economic features; (2) Analysing bottlenecks in transitions to climate neutrality and their implications for deployment; (3) Identifying social acceptance and legitimacy constraints, (4) Learning, diffusion, and adoption; (5) Implications for Sustainable Development Goals of archetypical mitigation pathways; and 6) Policy options and governance. A crosscutting WP7 synthesizes research along three salient, but under-researched themes: A) Socio-technical change; B) Managing transition risks; and C) Political economy and feasibility of deployment. WP8 focuses on stakeholder engagement, entailing scenario co-design, science-policy dialogue formats, and specific outreach formats for target groups.
Geoengineering technologies, such as solar radiation management (SRM), and negative emissions technologies, such as greenhouse gas removal (GGR), are emerging options to address climate change. This project will investigate the environmental, technical, social, legal, and policy dimensions of GGR and SRM. We provide an urgently needed interdisciplinary and holistic perspective of these technologies in order to understand conditions under which they might be deployed at scale. Our meta-analytical framework integrates insights from social science, engineering and physical science disciplines to provide a comprehensive view of GGR and SRM in the transition to climate neutrality in Europe and the world. The project will conduct excellent research and generate a robust, scientific assessment for evidence-based policymaking. Our research framework consists of three pillars—techno-economic systems, socio-technical systems, and systems of political action—within which we place six work packages (WPs). These are: (1) Understanding the current state and future potential of GGR and SRM technologies in terms of their technical and economic features; (2) Analysing bottlenecks in transitions to climate neutrality and their implications for deployment; (3) Identifying social acceptance and legitimacy constraints, (4) Learning, diffusion, and adoption; (5) Implications for Sustainable Development Goals of archetypical mitigation pathways; and 6) Policy options and governance. A crosscutting WP7 synthesizes research along three salient, but under-researched themes: A) Socio-technical change; B) Managing transition risks; and C) Political economy and feasibility of deployment. WP8 focuses on stakeholder engagement, entailing scenario co-design, science-policy dialogue formats, and specific outreach formats for target groups.
During this first scientific reporting period of the GENIE project, many results have been made towards the goal of the GENIE project.
The GENIE team at Aarhus University has conducted 125 expert interviews, a large scale survey covering 30 countries, and 44 focus groups in 22 countries. These were conducted to ensure that the Global South was represented at a level that is broader than the entire existing literature on climate intervention technologies. The team has also conducted site visits in Australia, Canada, Ecuador, Greenland, UK, and the US.
IIASA has had several notable publications including “Policy guidance and pitfalls aligning IPCC scenarios to national land emissions inventories”, which for the first-time gross negative and positive land-use emissions pathways have been developed. IIASA has also focused on key modelling improvements in areas of technology granularity and better representation of governance needs for CDR and climate projections. IIASA has also launched a prototype for the GENIE Hub, which will act as a way to disseminate GENIE research and knowledge.
MCC has been a major contributor to “The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal” which has filled a critical gap by establishing a new flagship science assessment in the space of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that has previously been missing.
UWISC has primarily been working on quantitative effort to measure rates of upscaling in 166 historical technologies, across multiple different national contexts. In addition to this, UWISC has also been working on deeper, slower, qualitative approach which uses a structured process of historical analogue research to look in detail at the factors affecting the upscaling rate of comparable historical technologies, as well as the risks and challenges that these technologies faced and the extent to which these might affect CDR and SRM technologies in the future.
The GENIE team at Aarhus University has conducted 125 expert interviews, a large scale survey covering 30 countries, and 44 focus groups in 22 countries. These were conducted to ensure that the Global South was represented at a level that is broader than the entire existing literature on climate intervention technologies. The team has also conducted site visits in Australia, Canada, Ecuador, Greenland, UK, and the US.
IIASA has had several notable publications including “Policy guidance and pitfalls aligning IPCC scenarios to national land emissions inventories”, which for the first-time gross negative and positive land-use emissions pathways have been developed. IIASA has also focused on key modelling improvements in areas of technology granularity and better representation of governance needs for CDR and climate projections. IIASA has also launched a prototype for the GENIE Hub, which will act as a way to disseminate GENIE research and knowledge.
MCC has been a major contributor to “The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal” which has filled a critical gap by establishing a new flagship science assessment in the space of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) that has previously been missing.
UWISC has primarily been working on quantitative effort to measure rates of upscaling in 166 historical technologies, across multiple different national contexts. In addition to this, UWISC has also been working on deeper, slower, qualitative approach which uses a structured process of historical analogue research to look in detail at the factors affecting the upscaling rate of comparable historical technologies, as well as the risks and challenges that these technologies faced and the extent to which these might affect CDR and SRM technologies in the future.
W are beyond the state of the art in terms of our meta-theoretical framework, and our reliance on a huge swathe of mixed-methods data so far. This includes:
• Expert elicitation exercise and opinion survey (N=74)
• Semi-structured expert research interviews (N=125)
• Site visits and naturalistic observation (N=8 so far, and growing, with supplemental research interviews onsite)
o July 2021: ice protection in Western Greenland on the Greenland Ice Sheet near Kangerlussuaq
o September 2021: the Climeworks Orca Direct Air Capture facility at Hellisheiði Iceland
o April 2022: The Drax BECCS facility near the Humber, England
o June 2022: afforestation, reforestation, and mangrove restoration in western Ecuador
o October 2022: the Carbon Engineering Direct Air Capture facility at Squamish Canada
o October 2022: marine cloud brightening, coral reef fogging and shading, enhanced weathering, biochar, and ecosystem adaptation and restoration in eastern (tropical) Australia
o March 2023: seagrass restoration and marine carbon removal in Wales (UK)
o March 2023: Running Tide, seaweed planting, kelp, blue carbon, carbon boys, ocean alkalinization, but also some coastal protection and beach nourishment in Maine, USA
• The survey (n=30,284 respondents, across 19 languages in 30 countries)
• Focus groups (N=323 respondents across 44 focus groups in 22 countries)
• Historical analogues and case studies across 10 technologies
• Systematic reviews and the State of CDR report
• Refined IAM modeling concerning DACCS and BECCS via IIASA and the Message-ix platform
In terms of tasks to the end of the project, we still have many, we have mapped out a remaining 20+ tasks across all 8 WPs which will take us until the end of the project.
• Expert elicitation exercise and opinion survey (N=74)
• Semi-structured expert research interviews (N=125)
• Site visits and naturalistic observation (N=8 so far, and growing, with supplemental research interviews onsite)
o July 2021: ice protection in Western Greenland on the Greenland Ice Sheet near Kangerlussuaq
o September 2021: the Climeworks Orca Direct Air Capture facility at Hellisheiði Iceland
o April 2022: The Drax BECCS facility near the Humber, England
o June 2022: afforestation, reforestation, and mangrove restoration in western Ecuador
o October 2022: the Carbon Engineering Direct Air Capture facility at Squamish Canada
o October 2022: marine cloud brightening, coral reef fogging and shading, enhanced weathering, biochar, and ecosystem adaptation and restoration in eastern (tropical) Australia
o March 2023: seagrass restoration and marine carbon removal in Wales (UK)
o March 2023: Running Tide, seaweed planting, kelp, blue carbon, carbon boys, ocean alkalinization, but also some coastal protection and beach nourishment in Maine, USA
• The survey (n=30,284 respondents, across 19 languages in 30 countries)
• Focus groups (N=323 respondents across 44 focus groups in 22 countries)
• Historical analogues and case studies across 10 technologies
• Systematic reviews and the State of CDR report
• Refined IAM modeling concerning DACCS and BECCS via IIASA and the Message-ix platform
In terms of tasks to the end of the project, we still have many, we have mapped out a remaining 20+ tasks across all 8 WPs which will take us until the end of the project.