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Implementing short-term prediction at utilities

Obiettivo



Objectives

This project aims to predict the power produced from
grid-connected wind farms by using meteorological
forecasting and to implement this prediction at
electrical utilities. The time-frame is from 0 to 36
hours ahead. This is done by extending and applying the
results of the JOULE project (``Short-term prediction of
local wind conditions'') and of two ongoing Danish
projects (JOULE 2: ``Wind Power Prediction Tool in
Central Dispatch Centres'', and EFP (Energy Research
Program): ``Using Meteorological Predictions'').

The main goal is to develop the models to such an extent
that it can be demonstrated that any utility with a
certain amount of installed wind energy capacity can use
the models with economic benefits.

A further goal is to show that these methods and
techniques developed in Europe can be used world-wide and
thereby create opportunities for the EU wind power
industry.

In the project four areas have been chosen: Denmark;
England, Scotland and Wales; Greece (Crete); and Texas in
the USA.


Technical Approach

Work will be performed by using prediction models based
on the forecast output from Numerical Weather Prediction
(NWP) models. In the present project the HIRLAM model of
the Danish Meteorological Institute will be used. This
is an operational model generating forecasts 36 hours
ahead, twice a day. The output of this model is then
made valid locally by one of two methods: a physical
model where the local effects are corrected for by the
WAsP program and the production of the wind farm is
calculated taking the shadowing of wind turbines into
account by using the PARK program. The other method is a
statistical one, where the statistical relationships
between the historical observations, the output from the
NWP model are being established and used in the
forecasting.


Expected Achievements and Exploitation

A user-friendly model that utilities (in cooperation with
meteorological institutes) can use to predict the energy
produced by wind farms with a range of up to 36 hours
ahead. The model will have been implemented and
evaluated at a number of European utilities from the
generally high wind areas of Northern Europe to the low
wind areas of the Mediterranean.

Meccanismo di finanziamento

CSC - Cost-sharing contracts

Coordinatore

Risø National Laboratory
Indirizzo
399,Frederiksborgvej 399
4000 Roskilde
Danimarca

Partecipanti (6)

COUNCIL FOR THE CENTRAL LABORATORY OF THE RESEARCH COUNCILS
United Kingdom
Indirizzo
Chilton
OX11 0QX Didcot,harwell,chilton
DANISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE
Danimarca
Indirizzo
100,Lyngbyvej 100
2100 Koepenhagen
Elkraft Power Company Ltd.
Danimarca
Indirizzo
5,Lautrupoej
2750 Ballerup
Jysk-Fynske Elsamarbejde I/S
Danimarca
Indirizzo
1-11,Fjordvejen
7000 Fredericia
National Observatory of Athens
Greece
Indirizzo
Lofos Nymphon
11810 Athens
TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF DENMARK
Danimarca
Indirizzo
Building 321
2800 Lyngby