European Climate Prediction system

Deliverables

Documents, reports (6)

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Exchange of data and results and planned joint activities amongst research communities

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions

Literature research about existing scientific knowledge gaps and best practices related to the use of climate predictions in climate change response and adaptation

Simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Report on simulation strategy for the continuous experiment approach over the Alpine focus sub-region and event-based approach at the pan-European level

Fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events for the simulation of high impact events

Report on the fully assessed CP-RCMs for the simulation of high impact events

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

Activities in research communities related to climate prediction

End user requirements for the EUCP

Report on end user requirements for the EUCP including selection of indicators

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website and internal collaboration platform

Project website and internal collaboration platform available

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (26)

Predicted Chance That Global Warming Will Temporarily Exceed 1.5 °C

Author(s): D. M. Smith, A. A. Scaife, E. Hawkins, R. Bilbao, G. J. Boer, M. Caian, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, R. Doescher, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, M. Ishii, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, T. Koenigk, Y. Kushnir, D. Matei, G. A. Meehl, M. Menegoz, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Power, M. Rixen, R. Sospedra-Alfonso, M. Tuma, K. Wyser, X.
Published in: Geophysical Research Letters, Issue 45/21, 2018, Page(s) 11,895-11,903, ISSN 0094-8276
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl079362

Towards operational predictions of the near-term climate

Author(s): Yochanan Kushnir, Adam A. Scaife, Raymond Arritt, Gianpaolo Balsamo, George Boer, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Masahide Kimoto, Rupa Kumar Kolli, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Katja Matthes, Wolfgang A. Müller, Terence O’Kane, Judith Perlwitz, Scott Power, Marilyn Raphael, Akihiko Shimpo, Doug Smith, Matthias Tuma, Bo Wu
Published in: Nature Climate Change, Issue 9/2, 2019, Page(s) 94-101, ISSN 1758-678X
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0359-7

Robust skill of decadal climate predictions

Author(s): D. M. Smith, R. Eade, A. A. Scaife, L.-P. Caron, G. Danabasoglu, T. M. DelSole, T. Delworth, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, N. J. Dunstone, L. Hermanson, V. Kharin, M. Kimoto, W. J. Merryfield, T. Mochizuki, W. A. Müller, H. Pohlmann, S. Yeager, X. Yang
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 2/1, 2019, Page(s) 1-10, ISSN 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y

How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation?

Author(s): Antje Weisheimer, Damien Decremer, David MacLeod, Christopher O’Reilly, T.N. Stockdale, S. Johnson, T.N. Palmer
Published in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2018, Page(s) 1-20, ISSN 0035-9009
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3446

Future evolution of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean

Author(s): Yves Tramblay, Samuel Somot
Published in: Climatic Change, Issue 151/2, 2018, Page(s) 289-302, ISSN 0165-0009
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2300-5

Toward a European Climate Prediction System

Author(s): Chris D. Hewitt, Jason A. Lowe
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Issue 99/10, 2018, Page(s) 1997-2001, ISSN 0003-0007
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-18-0022.1

Robustness and Scalability of Regional Climate Projections Over Europe

Author(s): Dominic Matte, Morten Andreas Dahl Larsen, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen
Published in: Frontiers in Environmental Science, Issue 6, 2019, ISSN 2296-665X
DOI: 10.3389/fenvs.2018.00163

Robustness of European climate projections from dynamical downscaling

Author(s): Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Morten A. D. Larsen, Ole B. Christensen, Martin Drews, Martin Stendel
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2019, Page(s) 1-13, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04831-z

Analysis of Ensemble Mean Forecasts: The Blessings of High Dimensionality

Author(s): Bo Christiansen
Published in: Monthly Weather Review, Issue 147/5, 2019, Page(s) 1699-1712, ISSN 0027-0644
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0211.1

A first-of-its-kind multi-model convection permitting ensemble for investigating convective phenomena over Europe and the Mediterranean

Author(s): Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski, E. Pichelli, F. Raffaele, B. Ahrens, I. Anders, N. Ban, S. Bastin, M. Belda, D. Belusic, A. Caldas-Alvarez, R. M. Cardoso, S. Davolio, A. Dobler, J. Fernandez, L. Fita, Q. Fumiere, F. Giorgi, K. Goergen, I. Güttler, T. Halenka, D. Heinzeller, Ø. Hodnebrog, D. Jacob, S. Kartsios, E. Katragkou, E. Kendon, S. Khodayar, H. Kunstmann, S. Knist, A. Lavín-Gullón, P.
Published in: Climate Dynamics, 2018, Page(s) 1-32, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4521-8

Towards reliable extreme weather and climate event attribution

Author(s): Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Donat, Markus G.
Published in: Nature Communications, 10, Issue 5, 2019, Page(s) 1-7, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000339757

A Framework to Determine the Limits of Achievable Skill for Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictions

Author(s): Yiling Liu, Markus G. Donat, Andréa S. Taschetto, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Lisa V. Alexander, Matthew H. England
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Issue 124/6, 2019, Page(s) 2882-2896, ISSN 2169-897X
DOI: 10.1029/2018jd029541

Bias adjustment and ensemble recalibration methods for seasonal forecasting: a comprehensive intercomparison using the C3S dataset

Author(s): R. Manzanas, J. M. Gutiérrez, J. Bhend, S. Hemri, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, V. Torralba, E. Penabad, A. Brookshaw
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-19, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04640-4

Calibration and combination of monthly near-surface temperature and precipitation predictions over Europe

Author(s): Luis R. L. Rodrigues, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Caio A. S. Coelho
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 02-2019, 2019, Page(s) 1-16, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4140-4

Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation

Author(s): Pierre Spandre, Hugues François, Deborah Verfaillie, Marc Pons, Matthieu Vernay, Matthieu Lafaysse, Emmanuelle George, Samuel Morin
Published in: The Cryosphere, Issue 13/4, 2019, Page(s) 1325-1347, ISSN 1994-0424
DOI: 10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019

Investigating the Effects of Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures on the Wind Drought of 2015 Over the United States

Author(s): Lledó, Llorenç; Bellprat, Omar; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Soret, Albert
Published in: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Issue 6, 2018, Page(s) 4837-4849, ISSN 2169-897X
DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028019

Characterization of the near surface wind speed distribution at global scale: ERA-Interim reanalysis and ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 4

Author(s): Raül Marcos, Nube González-Reviriego, Verónica Torralba, Albert Soret, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 52/5-6, 2019, Page(s) 3307-3319, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-018-4338-5

Skilful forecasting of global fire activity using seasonal climate predictions

Author(s): Marco Turco, Sonia Jerez, Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, Amir AghaKouchak, Maria Carmen Llasat, Antonello Provenzale
Published in: Nature Communications, Issue 9/1, 2018, Page(s) 1-9, ISSN 2041-1723
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-05250-0

Climate controls on snow reliability in French Alps ski resorts

Author(s): P. Spandre, H. François, D. Verfaillie, M. Lafaysse, M. Déqué, N. Eckert, E. George, S. Morin
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 9/1, 2019, ISSN 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-019-44068-8

The biggest unknowns related to decadal prediction: what 50 experts think are the 5 major knowledge gaps

Author(s): Dragana Bojovic, Roberto Bilbao, Leandro B. Díaz, Markus Donat, Pablo Ortega, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Balakrishnan Solaraju-Murali, Marta Terrado, Deborah Verfaillie, Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2019, ISSN 0003-0007
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-19-0190.1

Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting

Author(s): Lukas Brunner, Ruth Lorenz, Marius Zumwald, Reto Knutti
Published in: Environmental Research Letters, Issue 14/12, 2019, Page(s) 124010, ISSN 1748-9326
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab492f

Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO

Author(s): Panos J. Athanasiadis, Stephen Yeager, Young-Oh Kwon, Alessio Bellucci, David W. Smith, Stefano Tibaldi
Published in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Issue 3/1, 2020, ISSN 2397-3722
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6

Uncertainties in projections of sandy beach erosion due to sea level rise: an analysis at the European scale

Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis I. Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Published in: Scientific Reports, Issue 10/1, 2020, Page(s) 11895, ISSN 2045-2322
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-020-68576-0

"Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation"

Author(s): Hong Xuan Do, Fang Zhao, Seth Westra, Michael Leonard, Lukas Gudmundsson, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Yoshihide Wada
Published in: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, Issue 24/3, 2020, Page(s) 1543-1564, ISSN 1607-7938
DOI: 10.5194/hess-24-1543-2020

Using the Budyko Framework for Calibrating a Global Hydrological Model

Author(s): P. Greve, P. Burek, Y. Wada
Published in: Water Resources Research, Issue 56/6, 2020, ISSN 0043-1397
DOI: 10.1029/2019wr026280

Europe-wide precipitation projections at convection permitting scale with the Unified Model

Author(s): Steven C. Chan, Elizabeth J. Kendon, Ségolène Berthou, Giorgia Fosser, Elizabeth Lewis, Hayley J. Fowler
Published in: Climate Dynamics, Issue 55/3-4, 2020, Page(s) 409-428, ISSN 0930-7575
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05192-8

Conference proceedings (2)

Towards European wide maps of climatologic homogeneous regions for rainfall

Author(s): Zander MJ, Sperna Weiland FC, and Weerts AH
Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Issue Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, vol 21,, 2019

Uncertainty analysis in land loss prediction due to sea level rise, for sandy systems, at the European scale

Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Roshanka Ranasinghe, Jaap Kwadijk
Published in: Geophysical Research Abstracts, Proceedings of the EGU General Assembly 2019, Issue Vol. 21, 2019

Non-peer reviewed articles (1)

Global distribution of nearshore slopes with implications for coastal retreat

Author(s): Panagiotis Athanasiou, Ap van Dongeren, Alessio Giardino, Michalis Vousdoukas, Sandra Gaytan-Aguilar, Roshanka Ranasinghe
Published in: Earth System Science Data, Issue 11/4, 2019, Page(s) 1515-1529, ISSN 1866-3516
DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1515-2019

Other (1)

How to better predict North Atlantic’s atmospheric pressure patterns

Author(s): Based on paper by Athanasiou, P., van Dongeren, A., Giardino, A., Vousdoukas, M., Gaytan-Aguilar, S., and Ranasinghe, R.
Published in: 2020