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Complex Research of Earthquake’s Prediction Possibilities, Seismicity and Climate Change Correlations

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Enhancing 'when' imminent seismic regional activity forecasting

Society sometimes expects the near-impossible of scientists, with predicting natural disasters high on that list of expectations. EU researchers set out to predict when and where an earthquake will occur.

Climate Change and Environment

Being able to predict the location and severity of future natural disasters is of great interest, both to science and to society. However, predicting an earthquake is complicated and difficult to do. The main result of the BLACKSEAHAZNET project is statistical proof of imminent forecasting possibility for seismic regional activity on the basis of the geomagnetic monitoring and boreholes water level data in the framework of special created data acquisition system for data archiving, visualisation and analysis. Through the EU-funded project, a consortium consolidated a wide range of geomagnetic monitoring and modelling techniques. The overall aim was to create complex research group, which to start the solving of the problem for imminent forecast the time, epicentre, magnitude and intensity by employing reliable precursors — signs that occur before an earthquake. Researchers propose to set up complex data acquisition system that measured Earth's crust temperature, shifts in electromagnetic fields, biological indicators, boreholes water level, and even cosmic rays from the Sun and space, including real-time seismic regional situation. The real-time model in the BLACKSEAHAZNET project carried out daily geomagnetic and earthquake monitoring by exploiting sources from global networks. Their success was contingent upon long-term cooperation of research partners. They shared methods and approaches for data monitoring and analysis concerning differences of seismic activity and climatic systems on various time scales. In addition, researchers reassessed or enhanced existing models that estimate risk and forecast earthquakes. Knowledge transfer activities such as conferences, seminars and joint field work resulted in journal publications. Researchers considered possibilities for data integration. They tested the predictive capacity of models based on this data, and established new monitoring programmes in Black Sea and Caucas regions. Extensive scientific research in the Black Sea region addressed the global question of determining the reliable precursors for imminent earthquake prediction. The models proposed by BLACKSEAHAZNET may very well hold the key to achieving the ultimate goal of seismologists and save thousands of lives in the future.

Keywords

Earthquake, earthquake prediction, natural disasters, geomagnetic monitoring, seismological, meteorological monitoring, earthquake monitoring, seismic activity

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