When do Olympic athletes peak?
About 10 000 Olympians from around the world are competing in the ultimate sporting event. Most of this exceptional talent is young, but there are seasoned athletes who are just as competitive. In the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, the average age was 27, the highest since 1948. A major reason is that advances in exercise science and technology are pushing the limits of how far humans can go. Athletes can compete at a high level for longer. When someone is past a certain age in any sport, questions inevitably arise about performance levels. Many athletes have arrived in Paris in the prime of their careers, but is there an age when they’re at their best? To answer this question, a research team at Canada’s University of Waterloo examined career performance data from every track and field athlete who has competed in an individual event at the Olympics since the 1996 Games in Atlanta. The findings were published in the journal ‘Significance’.
Over the hill?
“Unlike other Olympic sports such as soccer and tennis that have their own high-profile competitions outside of the Games, the Olympics is the largest stage upon which track- and-field athletes compete,” commented lead author David Awosoga in a news release. “Because the Olympics occur only once every four years, track-and-field athletes must carefully consider when and how they should train to maximize their probability of qualifying for the Olympics while at their personal peak.” In their analysis, the researchers took into account five key factors: gender, nationality, event type, how long the athlete had been training at an elite level, and whether it was an Olympic year. At just under 27 years old, the study shows that the average age of Olympic male and female track and field athletes has remained surprisingly consistent over the last 30 years or so. Another interesting result was that their median peak age corresponded with this average age. After 27, the likelihood of an athlete’s peak performance still being ahead of them plunges to 44 %. That number dropped every year from then on.
Age doesn't define you
“Age, however, isn’t the only factor in an athlete’s peak. What’s really exciting is that we also found that knowing it’s an Olympic year actually helps predict an athlete’s performance,” explained co-author Matthew Chow. “When we watch track-and-field athletes compete, we are witnessing a statistical anomaly: someone who is both at the peak of their physical performance, while also benefiting from extremely fortuitous timing,” he added. So, whether you’re watching competitors in the twilight of their careers, like 65-year-old Spanish equestrian Juan Antonio Jiménez Cobo, or just starting out, like 11-year-old Chinese skateboarder Zheng Haohao, remember that age is just a number. What makes it all worthwhile is that many of us live vicariously through their single-minded focus, determination, tenacity, commitment, hard work and desire to be the best. Lifelong dreams will be accomplished, hopes dashed, careers and legacies cemented.
Keywords
Olympics, athlete, Olympian, sports, performance, peak, track and field, age