Descrizione del progetto
Studiare il futuro delle nostre foreste
I cambiamenti climatici, la perdita della diversità biologica e la rapida introduzione di specie alloctone stanno modificando la struttura e la composizione degli ecosistemi forestali. Poiché si sa poco dei nuovi ecosistemi emergenti, la politica e la gestione delle foreste sono questioni impegnative. Il progetto FORWARD, finanziato dal CER, farà luce sulle cause e le conseguenze della riorganizzazione negli ecosistemi forestali. Indagherà sul perché avviene la riorganizzazione, quando e dove è probabile che avvenga e quali impatti avrà sulla biodiversità e sui servizi ecosistemici. I risultati contribuiranno alla formulazione di indicatori di allerta precoci della riorganizzazione degli ecosistemi. Inoltre, verrà creata una mappa degli hotspot di riorganizzazione forestale utilizzando una sintesi di apprendimento automatico di set di megadati.
Obiettivo
Forest ecosystems around the globe are undergoing rapid reorganization. The unabated continuation of climate change, the accelerating rate of alien species introductions, and the precipitous loss of biological diversity are altering the structure and composition of forest ecosystems. As a consequence, novel ecosystems are emerging. However, the trajectories to novelty and the consequences thereof remain widely unknown. This limits the ability of forest policy and management to counteract undesired developments and safeguard the supply of ecosystem services to society. Here I will investigate the causes and consequences of reorganization in forest ecosystems. I will use a concerted combination of complementary methodological approaches to understand why reorganization takes place, when and where reorganization is likely to happen, and what impacts reorganization will have on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Replicated experiments will be conducted both in the field and in walk-in climate chambers to answer whether compounding climatic extremes could result in bottlenecks of forest regeneration. A next-generation forest landscape model will be developed to investigate how invasive alien species alter forest development. Based on these insights the FORWARD project will derive operational early warning indicators of reorganization, and test their generality and applicability in the field for landscapes on three continents. Subsequently, a machine-learning aided synthesis of big datasets will be used to compile the first map of global hotspots of forest reorganization. Finally, robust management strategies for addressing reorganization will be developed. Jointly studying the effects of global change on tree mortality and regeneration across scales, the FORWARD project will bring about a new level of understanding of forest change, and will provide the data, tools and strategies to tackle one of the most pressing challenges of current forest policy and management.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantIstituzione ospitante
80333 Muenchen
Germania