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Population Dynamics under Global Climate Change

Project description

Examining population dynamics under global climate change

The impacts of climate change on health, wellbeing and livelihoods are already being felt. It is thus reasonable to assume that climate change can influence demographic processes, through influencing fertility, mortality and migration, the three key demographic outcomes driving population change. However, until now, global population projections have not considered the possible effects of climate change on population trends. The EU-funded POPCLIMA project will comprehensively address this research gap by studying how climate change influences demographic outcomes as well as identifying the mechanisms, examining the differential impacts on subgroups of populations, and forecasting future population dynamics under climate change. Results will help the scientific community build more realistic scenarios about population trends under the rapid pace of climate change.

Objective

This study is the first to comprehensively address the impacts of climate change (CC) on population trends. Existing studies on population and CC focus either on the effects of population growth on CC or on identification of populations at risks to climatic hazards. There is virtually no literature on the mechanisms and the extent to which CC affects and will affect demographic outcomes. It is even not clear whether CC may increase or decrease fertility, mortality and migration. Being the first study to comprehensively and systematically address this issue, this project is very timely given that CC impacts have already been felt and are forecast to be much stronger in the future.

The project has four main objectives: 1) to study the way (direction and extent) in which CC influences demographic outcomes; 2) to examine the differential impacts of CC on subgroups of populations; 3) to identify the mechanisms through which CC influences demographic outcomes; 4) to forecast future population dynamics under climate change.

The project will analyse fertility, mortality and migration separately, using a variety of methodologies and datasets. Results from these analyses will then be used to inform the population projections under future CC scenarios. Our methodological approach is innovative. We will utilise and combine geo-referenced climate, demographic and socioeconomic data from different data sources (surveys and social media data) at the individual-, regional and country-level. Structural equation models are employed to identify the causal pathways and machine learning method is used to handle large-scale data.

Results will be particularly important for: 1) helping the scientific community in building more realistic scenarios about populations trends under the rapid pace of CC; 2) informing the international debate over the social costs of CC; and 3) providing a set of estimations useful to design better social and environmental policies.

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Keywords

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Programme(s)

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Topic(s)

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Funding Scheme

Funding scheme (or “Type of Action”) inside a programme with common features. It specifies: the scope of what is funded; the reimbursement rate; specific evaluation criteria to qualify for funding; and the use of simplified forms of costs like lump sums.

ERC-COG - Consolidator Grant

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Call for proposal

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(opens in new window) ERC-2020-COG

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Host institution

ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA
Net EU contribution

Net EU financial contribution. The sum of money that the participant receives, deducted by the EU contribution to its linked third party. It considers the distribution of the EU financial contribution between direct beneficiaries of the project and other types of participants, like third-party participants.

€ 1 569 500,00
Address
VIA ZAMBONI 33
40126 Bologna
Italy

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Region
Nord-Est Emilia-Romagna Bologna
Activity type
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
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Total cost

The total costs incurred by this organisation to participate in the project, including direct and indirect costs. This amount is a subset of the overall project budget.

€ 1 569 500,00

Beneficiaries (1)

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