Periodic Reporting for period 2 - GoNEXUS (Innovative tools and solutions for governing the water-energy-food-ecosystems NEXUS under global change)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2022-12-01 al 2024-05-31
The WEFE nexus, including the interconnected systems of water, energy, food, and ecosystems, is complex and affected by feedback. A better understanding of it over multiple spatio-temporal scales and across institutional borders (including transboundary systems) is essential for adapting to the sustainability challenges posed by climate and global change. However, existing modelling tools lack integration of significant interactions and feedbacks between the WEFE components and across scales. Developing a comprehensive set of indicators to evaluate nexus performance and trade-offs is also essential. Moreover, developing solutions requires stakeholder involvement, fostering transparency, effectiveness, equity, trust and ambition in policy change. Studies that include stakeholders as co-creators of the knowledge in WEFE conceptual models remain scarce and atypical, and even fewer studies involve stakeholders in assessing alternative scenarios of long-term changes in WEFE systems. There is a need for a framework linking modelling evidence with multi-stakeholder participatory approaches (Dialogues) that provides a systemic process to identify, evaluate and select win-win nexus solutions for future climate and global change scenarios.
The overall objective of GoNEXUS is to develop a framework for designing and assessing innovative solutions for efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus. The project supports evidence-based policy and decision-making addressing the challenges posed by climate and global change. Solutions will combine policy changes and other soft-path options with technical and infrastructure measures for a more resilient future. Improved modelling at different scales and across them will support evidence for a better understanding of nexus interlinkages. The Model Toolbox will allow assessing the impact of solutions to meet the challenges of climate and other projected changes. Creative multi-level dialogues with stakeholders will support the co-design of scenarios, models, indicators and solutions. The project's focus on involving stakeholders in the co-design can lead to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. Besides integrating robust modelling approaches with cross-sectoral dialogues, the project will go beyond the state-of-the-art by specifically addressing policy uptake and governance mechanisms, including institutional change, in order to co-develop socially and politically-feasible solutions. The utility and effectiveness of the framework will be showcased in a series of geographically, economically, climatically and politically diverse case studies that span all levels, from local/river basin to continental and global, including transboundary basins in Europe and Africa.
The overall objective of GoNEXUS is to develop a framework for designing and assessing innovative solutions for efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus. The project supports evidence-based policy and decision-making addressing the challenges posed by climate and global change. Solutions will combine policy changes and other soft-path options with technical and infrastructure measures for a more resilient future. Improved modelling at different scales and across them will support evidence for a better understanding of nexus interlinkages. The Model Toolbox will allow assessing the impact of solutions to meet the challenges of climate and other projected changes. Creative multi-level dialogues with stakeholders will support the co-design of scenarios, models, indicators and solutions. The project's focus on involving stakeholders in the co-design can lead to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. Besides integrating robust modelling approaches with cross-sectoral dialogues, the project will go beyond the state-of-the-art by specifically addressing policy uptake and governance mechanisms, including institutional change, in order to co-develop socially and politically-feasible solutions. The utility and effectiveness of the framework will be showcased in a series of geographically, economically, climatically and politically diverse case studies that span all levels, from local/river basin to continental and global, including transboundary basins in Europe and Africa.
Different approaches to build local socio-economic and land use scenarios have been implemented, considering the ones already existing and the characteristics of the downscaled and bias-adjusted CMIP6 climate change scenarios at the local scale. These scenarios took into account several socioeconomic pathways aligned with climate change scenarios. Current global and EU WEFE-related policies and strategies have been assessed, together with their interrelations and challenges.
The Global and continental scale WEFE models used in GoNEXUS have been improved by adding new processes and enhancing existing ones. Results for the future evolution of the WEFE nexus at global and EU scales are available. At the river basin scale, a wide set of WEFE models encompassing several modelling approaches has been finalized and tested under the scenarios considered to generate regional and local scale trajectories.
A preliminary set of indicators was identified at the first stages of the project and has been refined, consolidated and finalised to achieve the best possible WEFE evidence quantification based on data availability and model capabilities. These indicators were considered during model development, taking into account the goal of nexus evidence demonstration and quantification at different scales. Specific inputs from the dialogues were also accounted for. Two rounds of nexus dialogues have been developed to gather knowledge, build trust, shape model development, foresee regional and local socioeconomic scenarios, and point at prospected WEFE solutions. In the Senegal river basin, the cultural dimension of migration and its role has been preliminarily assessed.
The current global and EU WEFE-related policies and strategies have been assessed, together with their interrelations, to identify WEFE solutions and measures. Likewise, the same is being evaluated for basin-level cases in studies. WEFE solutions have been prioritized by analysing feasibility, desirability, sustainability, and implementation barriers. A thorough literature review on institutional setups has identified institutional challenges that hinder nexus governance, compiled a pool of preconfigured institutional solutions compatible with the WEFE nexus, and outlined the enabling conditions for their implementation. GoNEXUS has launched a YouTube channel, has established contacts with sister projects to identify synergies and prepare a webinar series, and has successfully applied to the E-COST Network.
The Global and continental scale WEFE models used in GoNEXUS have been improved by adding new processes and enhancing existing ones. Results for the future evolution of the WEFE nexus at global and EU scales are available. At the river basin scale, a wide set of WEFE models encompassing several modelling approaches has been finalized and tested under the scenarios considered to generate regional and local scale trajectories.
A preliminary set of indicators was identified at the first stages of the project and has been refined, consolidated and finalised to achieve the best possible WEFE evidence quantification based on data availability and model capabilities. These indicators were considered during model development, taking into account the goal of nexus evidence demonstration and quantification at different scales. Specific inputs from the dialogues were also accounted for. Two rounds of nexus dialogues have been developed to gather knowledge, build trust, shape model development, foresee regional and local socioeconomic scenarios, and point at prospected WEFE solutions. In the Senegal river basin, the cultural dimension of migration and its role has been preliminarily assessed.
The current global and EU WEFE-related policies and strategies have been assessed, together with their interrelations, to identify WEFE solutions and measures. Likewise, the same is being evaluated for basin-level cases in studies. WEFE solutions have been prioritized by analysing feasibility, desirability, sustainability, and implementation barriers. A thorough literature review on institutional setups has identified institutional challenges that hinder nexus governance, compiled a pool of preconfigured institutional solutions compatible with the WEFE nexus, and outlined the enabling conditions for their implementation. GoNEXUS has launched a YouTube channel, has established contacts with sister projects to identify synergies and prepare a webinar series, and has successfully applied to the E-COST Network.
CMIP6 climate scenarios from global to local scales, as well as global land use scenarios, have been developed and/or acquired using statistical downscaling techniques as well as participatory scenario foresight approaches. In particular, GoNEXUS has developed 15 future climate scenarios with a variability range broader enough to ensure that all plausible socioeconomic trajectories are included. These will serve as inputs for developing the trajectories of water, energy, food and ecosystems. The global WEFE models have been improved and used to deliver the Tier 1 runs employing the scenarios developed. Tier 2 scenario runs, where global WEFE models exchange information, are under development. These will be inputs for policy scenario runs and boundary conditions for river basin case studies. All river basin case studies have combined model development and nexus dialogue celebration to account for local knowledge and interests. Then, additional local feedback is incorporated into modelling to develop solutions that best address nexus challenges. Based on the GoNEXUS Sustainability Assessment Framework (SAF), WEFE nexus evidence was evaluated under different scenarios to build a reference framework against which simulations of future scenarios and WEFE nexus solutions will be compared. Innovative participatory approaches were used and combined in the nexus dialogues to devise future scenarios and blueprint WEFE nexus solutions to be evaluated by the models. The GONEXUS SEF has been developed to evaluate solutions, considering both the global/continental context and the particular problems. Evaluation will be performed in the last stages of the project. A nexus-coherence assessment will lead to the refinement of solutions, further assessed with models when possible, evidence and cross-sectoral dialogues. This interactive and dynamic process will end with policy recommendations. A preliminary assessment of the institutional context is ongoing. Each case study will assess risks arising between the energy and water sectors, to propose nexus solutions that minimize trade-offs between water and energy.