Periodic Reporting for period 1 - GoNEXUS (Innovative tools and solutions for governing the water-energy-food-ecosystems NEXUS under global change)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2021-06-01 do 2022-11-30
The WEFE nexus, which includes the interconnected systems of water, energy, food, and ecosystems, is complex and affected by feedback. A better understanding of the WEFE nexus over multiple spatio-temporal scales and across institutional borders (including transboundary systems) is essential for adapting to the sustainability challenges posed by climate and global change. However, the existing modelling tools lack integration of the significant interactions and feedbacks between the WEFE components and across scales. A comprehensive set of indicators is also required to evaluate nexus performance and trade-offs. Moreover, developing solutions requires stakeholder involvement, fostering transparency, effectiveness, equity, trust and ambition in policy change. Studies that include stakeholders as co-creators of the knowledge in WEFE conceptual models remain scarce and atypical, and even fewer studies involve stakeholders in assessing alternative scenarios of long-term changes in WEFE systems. There is a need for a framework linking modelling evidence with multi-stakeholder participatory approaches (Dialogues) that provides a systemic process to identify, evaluate and select win-win nexus solutions for the challenging future climate and global change scenarios.
The overall objective of GoNEXUS is to develop a framework for designing and assessing innovative solutions for efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus. The project can support evidence-based policy and decision-making that addresses the challenges posed by climate and global changes. Solutions will combine policy changes and other soft-path options with technical and infrastructure measures for a more resilient future. Improved modelling at different scales and across scales will support evidence for a better understanding of the interlinkages of the nexus. The Model Toolbox will allow assessing the impact of solutions to meet the challenges of climate and other projected changes. Creative multi-level dialogues with stakeholders will support the co-design of scenarios, models, indicators and solutions. The project's focus on involving stakeholders in the co-design can lead to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. Besides integrating robust modelling approaches with cross-sectoral dialogues, the project will go beyond the state-of-the-art by specifically addressing policy uptake and governance mechanisms, including institutional change, in order to co-develop socially and politically-feasible solutions. The utility and effectiveness of the framework will be showcased in a series of geographically, economically, climatically and politically diverse case studies that span all levels, from local/river basin to continental and global, including transboundary basins in Europe and Africa.
The overall objective of GoNEXUS is to develop a framework for designing and assessing innovative solutions for efficient and sustainable coordinated governance of the water-energy-food-ecosystem nexus. The project can support evidence-based policy and decision-making that addresses the challenges posed by climate and global changes. Solutions will combine policy changes and other soft-path options with technical and infrastructure measures for a more resilient future. Improved modelling at different scales and across scales will support evidence for a better understanding of the interlinkages of the nexus. The Model Toolbox will allow assessing the impact of solutions to meet the challenges of climate and other projected changes. Creative multi-level dialogues with stakeholders will support the co-design of scenarios, models, indicators and solutions. The project's focus on involving stakeholders in the co-design can lead to more inclusive and equitable outcomes. Besides integrating robust modelling approaches with cross-sectoral dialogues, the project will go beyond the state-of-the-art by specifically addressing policy uptake and governance mechanisms, including institutional change, in order to co-develop socially and politically-feasible solutions. The utility and effectiveness of the framework will be showcased in a series of geographically, economically, climatically and politically diverse case studies that span all levels, from local/river basin to continental and global, including transboundary basins in Europe and Africa.
The project has made significant advancements and has achieved its planned milestones. A very brief summary of actions includes: The final set of Global and European climate scenarios was processed, fulfilling Milestone 2. The land use and socioeconomic scenarios have been downloaded and are now available. The development of the local land use change and socioeconomic scenarios were aligned with the dialogues. Many general models have been improved. For PCR-GLOBWL, coupling the model with a crop growth model is a task close to being finished. In LISFLOOD-EPIC, the addition of a module on water temperature is ongoing. In PROMETHEUS, the inclusion of water constraints for the power sector by region and the verification of biomass demand/potential under different scenario conditions are the main advancements. In PRIMES, works are underway to include water constraints for thermal and nuclear power plants. In GEM-E3, significant improvements in water/land use, including agriculture elements for employment, have been realized. GLOBIO now has a new module to quantify the impacts of dams on habitats and to quantify the combined impacts of dams and changes in streamflow and water temperature on freshwater fish diversity. Each local team is working on improving the knowledge and the models of their case study. To name a few advancements and collaborations, the Jucar robust analysis experiment is being performed by a collaboration between POLIMI and UPV. A hydro-economic model for the Tagus and the Segura basins is under development, focusing so far on the Segura part of the basin. Including a mathematical model of the current operation of the Tagus-Segura water transfer using fuzzy logic, which is expected to be ready by early 2023. In Senegal, the hydro-economic model of the Senegal River Basin is being developed. The Zambezi system dynamics model is being developed by UPV with support of POLIMI. In the Danube, the initial model has been set up and linked to ecological indicators.
A complete literature review on the Sustainability Assessment Framework (SAF) has been performed, and the preliminary SAF was completed and submitted. Regarding the Nexus Dialogues, partners were mostly involved in organising and carrying out the first round of basin and sub-basin dialogues. All case study coordinators have been working on developing reports and videos on the dialogues. As for the global and European Union scale dialogues, international initiatives that work on the nexus were identified. The Solutions Evaluation Framework (SEF) was delivered. Some case studies already have a preliminary policy, and technical and operational list of solutions identified. The visual identity as well as social media accounts and the website of the project, were created. A dedicated communication toolkit was created in October 2022. Videos and newsletters were disseminated. Additionally, news pieces have been shared monthly. The main topics include outcomes of dialogues and key challenges or takeaways discussed, what GoNEXUS has been reading, profiles on young researchers and video releases. Finally, GoNEXUS has joined the Nexus Project Cluster and participated as a presenter in the last Nexus Project Cluster Workshop. In addition, GoNEXUS has joined a project group of the Horizon Results Booster (HRB) led by SIGMA Nexus. The Risk and Data Management Plan were submitted.
A complete literature review on the Sustainability Assessment Framework (SAF) has been performed, and the preliminary SAF was completed and submitted. Regarding the Nexus Dialogues, partners were mostly involved in organising and carrying out the first round of basin and sub-basin dialogues. All case study coordinators have been working on developing reports and videos on the dialogues. As for the global and European Union scale dialogues, international initiatives that work on the nexus were identified. The Solutions Evaluation Framework (SEF) was delivered. Some case studies already have a preliminary policy, and technical and operational list of solutions identified. The visual identity as well as social media accounts and the website of the project, were created. A dedicated communication toolkit was created in October 2022. Videos and newsletters were disseminated. Additionally, news pieces have been shared monthly. The main topics include outcomes of dialogues and key challenges or takeaways discussed, what GoNEXUS has been reading, profiles on young researchers and video releases. Finally, GoNEXUS has joined the Nexus Project Cluster and participated as a presenter in the last Nexus Project Cluster Workshop. In addition, GoNEXUS has joined a project group of the Horizon Results Booster (HRB) led by SIGMA Nexus. The Risk and Data Management Plan were submitted.
GoNEXUS will provide global to continental projections of WEFE nexus indicators at resolutions that reflect constraints, interactions, and feedback between WEFE components. Water, energy, agricultural-food and biodiversity models will be coupled to explore WEFE nexus performance under combined climate and socio-economic scenarios. Progress in the modelling framework and indicators have already been realized. The project will go beyond the current state-of-the-art by developing policy recommendations on how to strengthen current approaches to hydro diplomacy by expanding the focus to a more integrative WEFE nexus diplomacy approach and by discussing and disseminating it with relevant international actors who can take recommendations up and translate them into diplomatic action. These recommendations are currently being prepared after the modelling framework, scenarios, dialogues, and indicators provide significant outcomes for the planned policy briefing. Finally, GoNEXUS is developing innovative participatory Nexus Dialogues. Studies that include stakeholders as co-creators of the knowledge contained and portrayed in WEFE models and decision support systems remain scarce, and GoNEXUS expects to fill the existing gap.