Descrizione del progetto
Convalidare i sistemi di supporto alla pianificazione per consentire alla natura di contrastare gli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici
Le soluzioni basate sulla natura ci aiutano ad adattarci agli impatti esercitati dai cambiamenti climatici sfruttando la forza della natura. Sin dal 2014, l’Europa incentiva tali soluzioni per la gestione sostenibile degli spartiacque urbani. Questo compito può essere supportato dai sistemi di supporto alla pianificazione con l’obiettivo di promuovere un’implementazione strategica efficiente. Purtroppo, data l’assenza di procedure standard di convalida, questi sistemi si sono trovati dinanzi difficoltà che ne ostacolano l’adozione, in quanto sussiste una mancanza di credibilità e legittimità. Il progetto MOVE-NBS, finanziato dall’UE, svilupperà un quadro specializzato basato su criteri di valutazione ampiamente accettati allo scopo di migliorare l’affidabilità dei sistemi di supporto alla pianificazione, nonché la relativa credibilità.
Obiettivo
Since 2014, Europe allocated €5.5 billion in sustainable watershed management, including Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) of green-blue infrastructure to combat aquatic ecosystem decline and climate change impacts (e.g. flooding, urban heat). Reliable integrated Planning Support Systems (PSS) are needed for strategic NBS implementation, an EU priority. In past decades, many PSS for NBS have emerged. However, standard validation procedures for PSS lack, which limits PSS credibility, uptake and hampers strategic NBS planning. While diverse model performance criteria and corresponding validation procedures have been proposed, no standard approach has been agreed on.
My proposal, MOVE-NBS, aims to create such a standard: to build a framework of widely agreed holistic performance criteria and validation procedures for PSS. I have three objectives: 1) systematically enquiring expert preferences for model performance and validation; 2) empirically testing selected procedures; and 3) building a novel evaluation and validation framework for PSS. To advance current state-of-the-art, I propose an innovative approach: 1) Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with leading PSS and NBS experts from science and practice using online preference elicitation; 2) implementing validation procedures in four test cases of real-world NBS planning projects on three continents, using two PSS developed by myself and project partner; and 3) synthesising findings.
Academic impact for PSS and the wider environmental modelling community formally capturing current high-level ideas about model performance and validation into standardised procedures, resulting from wide academic consensus. This will critically improve PSS credibility and comparability. For practice, impacts include improved interpretation and reliability of PSS. These impacts should lead to more strategic siting of NBS, and improved realisation of the multiple benefits of green-blue infrastructure for society.
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Meccanismo di finanziamento
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinatore
8600 Dubendorf
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