Periodic Reporting for period 2 - CAPABLE (ClimAte Policy AcceptaBiLity Economic framework)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2024-07-01 al 2025-12-31
Climate change requires rapid EU transition to neutrality, but ambitious policies like Fit for 55 face implementation barriers due to limited evidence on socio-economic feasibility and public acceptance. CAPABLE developed multi-objective decision-making frameworks integrating economics with social sciences.
Obj 1: Advanced methods for decision-making incorporating deep uncertainty, social heterogeneity, behavioral factors, and multi-objective welfare measurement.
Obj 2: Generated empirical evidence through two waves of large-scale surveys across 13 EU countries (~20,000 respondents), behavioral experiments, and interviews on drivers of climate policy acceptance.
Obj 3: Synthesized fragmented literature using systematic reviews and machine learning, informing evidence-based recommendations for Fit for 55 implementation across emissions trading, carbon border adjustment, and just transition.
Obj 4: Analyzed how policymakers at European, national, regional, and local levels perceive scientific evidence and how citizen engagement mechanisms function.
Obj 5: Developed an interactive online policy evaluation tool integrating evidence on climate policy performance across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.
Obj 1: Advanced methods for decision-making incorporating deep uncertainty, social heterogeneity, behavioral factors, and multi-objective welfare measurement.
Obj 2: Generated empirical evidence through two waves of large-scale surveys across 13 EU countries (~20,000 respondents), behavioral experiments, and interviews on drivers of climate policy acceptance.
Obj 3: Synthesized fragmented literature using systematic reviews and machine learning, informing evidence-based recommendations for Fit for 55 implementation across emissions trading, carbon border adjustment, and just transition.
Obj 4: Analyzed how policymakers at European, national, regional, and local levels perceive scientific evidence and how citizen engagement mechanisms function.
Obj 5: Developed an interactive online policy evaluation tool integrating evidence on climate policy performance across environmental, economic, and social dimensions.
We conducted systematic reviews on socio-economic heterogeneity in emissions and climate policy acceptance. Empirically, we collected two waves of surveys (~20,000 respondents across 13 EU countries), behavioral experiments, and analyzed 1,187 political party manifestos across 27 countries and EU public consultations. We extended climate-economy models incorporating heterogeneity, bounded rationality, and uncertainty. We evaluated Fit for 55 policies—expanded ETS, Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, Just Transition mechanisms, renewable directives. Stakeholder engagement was continuous through advisory meetings, workshops, and capacity-building. We developed an interactive online tool making scientific evidence on policy performance accessible to policymakers at all levels.
Main outputs
CAPABLE Tool "Opinions on Climate Policies": an interactive dashboard that illustrates the results of the CAPABLE two waves of surveys carried out in 2024 and 2025 in the European Union. The online interactive tool allows users to browse countries and instruments to discover the latest public opinions on a set of different climate change policies in the EU (https://capableclimate.eu/online-tool/(si apre in una nuova finestra)).
CAPABLE Tool "Climate Policy Literature Map": an interactive website that uses machine learning to identify and classify the literature on climate policy instruments (https://climateliterature.org/#/project/policymap(si apre in una nuova finestra)).
The Capable researchers have drafted seven high-level summaries of the CAPABLE research project's main results. They address the actionable policy recommendations on key research topics for policymakers, practitioners, businesses, and consumers' representatives.
Key results and recommendations: “CAPABLE factsheet” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb6-factsheet/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Climate Policy Acceptability and Effectiveness: “CAPABLE’s User Manual” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb7-handbook/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Public’s opinion: “Online Dashboard: public’s opinions – climate policies across Europe” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb3-dashboard/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Carbon pricing: “Lessons from carbon pricing in Europe: beyond effectiveness” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb1-ets/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
The Green Deal: “Truly just? Barriers to participation and uneven impacts of the Green Deal policies” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb2-barriers/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Determinants of policy support: “A Systematic Literature Review of Determinants of Climate-Policy Support” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb4-determinants/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
ETS revenues: “Strengthening Public Support for ETS2 Through Wise Revenue Use” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb5-ets-revenues/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Datasets:
Policlim: A Dataset of Climate Change Discourse in the Political Manifestos of Forty-Five Countries from 1990 to 2022 (https://zenodo.org/records/18803186(si apre in una nuova finestra))
A dataset collecting estimated effect sizes of the effectiveness of carbon pricing collected from 80 primary studies for the systematic review and meta-analysis (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48512-w(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Replication data: Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle (https://zenodo.org/records/18743688(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Main outputs
CAPABLE Tool "Opinions on Climate Policies": an interactive dashboard that illustrates the results of the CAPABLE two waves of surveys carried out in 2024 and 2025 in the European Union. The online interactive tool allows users to browse countries and instruments to discover the latest public opinions on a set of different climate change policies in the EU (https://capableclimate.eu/online-tool/(si apre in una nuova finestra)).
CAPABLE Tool "Climate Policy Literature Map": an interactive website that uses machine learning to identify and classify the literature on climate policy instruments (https://climateliterature.org/#/project/policymap(si apre in una nuova finestra)).
The Capable researchers have drafted seven high-level summaries of the CAPABLE research project's main results. They address the actionable policy recommendations on key research topics for policymakers, practitioners, businesses, and consumers' representatives.
Key results and recommendations: “CAPABLE factsheet” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb6-factsheet/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Climate Policy Acceptability and Effectiveness: “CAPABLE’s User Manual” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb7-handbook/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Public’s opinion: “Online Dashboard: public’s opinions – climate policies across Europe” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb3-dashboard/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Carbon pricing: “Lessons from carbon pricing in Europe: beyond effectiveness” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb1-ets/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
The Green Deal: “Truly just? Barriers to participation and uneven impacts of the Green Deal policies” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb2-barriers/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Determinants of policy support: “A Systematic Literature Review of Determinants of Climate-Policy Support” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb4-determinants/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
ETS revenues: “Strengthening Public Support for ETS2 Through Wise Revenue Use” (https://capableclimate.eu/pb5-ets-revenues/(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Datasets:
Policlim: A Dataset of Climate Change Discourse in the Political Manifestos of Forty-Five Countries from 1990 to 2022 (https://zenodo.org/records/18803186(si apre in una nuova finestra))
A dataset collecting estimated effect sizes of the effectiveness of carbon pricing collected from 80 primary studies for the systematic review and meta-analysis (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-48512-w(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Replication data: Climate Policy Feasibility across Europe Relies on the Conditional Middle (https://zenodo.org/records/18743688(si apre in una nuova finestra))
Our survey data shows substantial heterogeneity in policy support across regions and demographics, with equity and fairness strongly influencing acceptability. Behavioral experiments reveal that transparent policy design, information on co-benefits, and distributional consideration significantly increase public support. These findings informed Fit for 55 recommendations, highlighting design features enhancing feasibility. Our methodological advances demonstrated how decision-making under uncertainty improves evaluation of transformative policies. Systematic reviews synthesized literature across economics, political science, and psychology. The online tool provides policymakers with evidence on policy instrument effectiveness. Datasets released under FAIR principles enable future research. CAPABLE publications in high-impact journals established new standards for integrating social sciences into climate policy evaluation.