Periodic Reporting for period 1 - GRAPHICS (Integrated analysis of air pollution, human health and income inequality for alternative climate change scenarios.)
Periodo di rendicontazione: 2023-06-01 al 2025-05-31
The objective of the project is to integrate inequality considerations into the estimation of health impacts attributable to both ambient and household air pollution under various socioeconomic and climate mitigation scenarios co-produced with relevant stakeholders. This integration would allow to assess the contributions of different countries and population groups to air pollution and identify those most affected. While scientific literature had extensively analysed the impacts of ambient for human health, and the potential co-benefits of decarbonization, existing analyses usually focused on the region level, without diving into the impacts for different population groups. Likewise, household air pollution was often ignored and not considered in this type of studies, and it is a major risk factor, particularly in the Global South. In this context, GRAPHICS addresses a critical gap in the literature by incorporating both ambient and household air pollution impacts, offering a valuable contribution that will be of broad interest to both scientific and policy communities.
One of the main achievements of the project is the development a fully accessible methodological framework that combines different models and tools, enabling the analysis of air pollution and health impacts from a novel perspective that goes beyond the current state of the art. This framework allows to quantify the contribution of each population group to air pollution under different future scenarios, the future health impacts of air pollution on each population group, and how do these groups benefit from its reduction through alternative decarbonization strategies. The models developed during the project include an enhanced version of an integrated assessment model with consumer heterogeneity in end-use demand sectors (GCAM_GRAPHICS), as well as two distinct air quality tools, each focused on either ambient (rfasst-v2.0) or household air pollution (rhap). All these tools are fully open-access and available through public GitHub repositories. They are designed to be easily adapted and integrated with other models, which can foster collaboration across modelling teams and facilitate new, impactful research.
In addition, I have (co-)authored several scientific articles that address the core research questions of the GRAPHICS project, drawing on the methodological framework developed. Some of these studies have been published in leading peer-reviewed journals and presented at the major international conferences in the field. Moreover, the central analysis, focused on assessing health impacts and social inequalities under alternative decarbonization scenarios co-produced with a range of diverse stakeholders, is currently being finalized as a scientific manuscript. Preliminary results, shared during internal meetings and at the final GRAPHICS workshop, have received strong interest and highly positive feedback, underscoring the relevance and potential impact of this work.
In addition, I have (co-)authored several scientific articles that address the core research questions of the GRAPHICS project, drawing on the methodological framework developed. Some of these studies have been published in leading peer-reviewed journals and presented at the major international conferences in the field. Moreover, the central analysis, focused on assessing health impacts and social inequalities under alternative decarbonization scenarios co-produced with a range of diverse stakeholders, is currently being finalized as a scientific manuscript. Preliminary results, shared during internal meetings and at the final GRAPHICS workshop, have received strong interest and highly positive feedback, underscoring the relevance and potential impact of this work.
The core analysis of the project, which analyses the health co-benefits of air pollution reductions under alternative decarbonization scenarios co-developed with stakeholders, has yielded findings that make a direct contribution to some of the most pressing academic and policy debates. The analysis shows that decarbonization alone is not enough to address air pollution and its health impacts. While climate policies help reduce pollution due to shared sources (e.g. coal plants), meeting WHO air quality guidelines requires greater ambition and the integration of air quality and health into climate policy design. Even under decarbonization scenarios, PM2.5 levels remain uneven across countries, with regions like Southeast Asia facing far higher burdens than places like Scandinavia. Within regions, wealthier groups, especially through transport, contribute more to pollution. These inequalities vary by sector, underscoring the need for targeted, sector-specific strategies that address both emissions and equity.
The additional studies carried out within the project have generated findings of strong relevance to both the academic and policy communities. Using the GCAM_GRAPHICS model developed during the project, we demonstrated that reducing within-region inequality can improve access to energy and food (particularly for lower-income groups) without necessarily conflicting with existing emissions pledges or long-term climate goals. This provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to design fair, equitable, and socially sustainable transition strategies. In another study, I analysed the implications of a potential cut-off of Russian gas supplies to the European Union, a topic that attracted attention from the European Commission due to its high policy relevance during a critical geopolitical moment. A further key achievement of the project was the development and release of the gcamreport tool, a major milestone for both the GCAM and broader integrated assessment modelling (IAM) communities. This tool enables GCAM scenarios to be translated into a standardized format suitable for submission to international initiatives such as the IPCC and ScenarioMIP, thereby enhancing transparency, consistency, and collaboration in global climate scenario analysis.
The additional studies carried out within the project have generated findings of strong relevance to both the academic and policy communities. Using the GCAM_GRAPHICS model developed during the project, we demonstrated that reducing within-region inequality can improve access to energy and food (particularly for lower-income groups) without necessarily conflicting with existing emissions pledges or long-term climate goals. This provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to design fair, equitable, and socially sustainable transition strategies. In another study, I analysed the implications of a potential cut-off of Russian gas supplies to the European Union, a topic that attracted attention from the European Commission due to its high policy relevance during a critical geopolitical moment. A further key achievement of the project was the development and release of the gcamreport tool, a major milestone for both the GCAM and broader integrated assessment modelling (IAM) communities. This tool enables GCAM scenarios to be translated into a standardized format suitable for submission to international initiatives such as the IPCC and ScenarioMIP, thereby enhancing transparency, consistency, and collaboration in global climate scenario analysis.