Description du projet
L’impact de la géopolitique sur les investissements mondiaux
Les changements de pouvoir et les conflits en cours dans le monde pourraient avoir un impact sur la mondialisation financière. L’influence du pouvoir des États sur la finance internationale est peu claire, car les changements sont rares dans ce contexte. Les recherches se concentrent généralement sur les données des années 1970. Le projet Great.Power.Finance financé par l’UE, entend quant à lui étudier l’impact de la géopolitique sur les investissements mondiaux au cours des 200 dernières années. Le projet rassemblera des données sur les flux de capitaux Nord-Sud et les rendements des investisseurs à un niveau microéconomique, portant sur des milliers d’obligations, d’actions et de projets d’infrastructure depuis 1800. Great.Power.Finance examinera, par le biais d’une analyse approfondie des données, la manière dont l’évolution du pouvoir mondial affecte la répartition du capital, dont les guerres et autres événements influencent les rendements des investisseurs, et dont les pays dominants émergents tirent parti des investissements dans les infrastructures pour étendre leur influence à l’étranger.
Objectif
The world is entering a new era of great power rivalry, with the rise of China and the Russia-Ukraine war being only the most visible signs. This proposal asks: What are the implications of these developments for global finance? Will China’s rise accelerate financial globalization or rather reverse it? What do the growing tensions between great powers imply for financial markets around the world? And what motivates China to invest trillions of dollars of state funds into its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)?
It is difficult to answer these questions, because major shifts in the international order occur only every few generations. We therefore need to look back, but existing research in international finance mostly relies on evidence since the 1970s – from an era dominated by the US and in which states had limited influence on capital flows. As a result, our knowledge on the role of state power in global finance is limited. More generally, the literature on geopolitics and international economics is still in its infancy.
With this proposal, I want to fill these gaps. I use theory, rigorous empirical methods, and comprehensive new data to study how the rise and fall of great powers (or geopolitics) shaped global investments over the past 200 years.
In part one, I embark on a major data gathering effort on North-South capital flows and investor returns at a micro-level, covering tens of thousands of individual bonds, stocks, and infrastructure projects since 1800. In part two, I use this comprehensive new data to analyse: (1) how changes in the international balance of power influence the global allocation of capital; (2) how geopolitical shocks such as wars affect investor returns in the short and long run; and (3) whether and how rising powers use infrastructure investments as a strategic tool to extend influence abroad, in particular to advance their energy security, access to scarce raw materials, and for military control.
Champ scientifique
Mots‑clés
Programme(s)
- HORIZON.1.1 - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme
Régime de financement
HORIZON-ERC - HORIZON ERC GrantsInstitution d’accueil
24105 Kiel
Allemagne