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A Novel Understanding of Pandemic Disease in Preindustrial Europe (1300-1800): Combining History, Machine Learning and Natural Sciences

Descrizione del progetto

Tracciare le pestilenze nella storia per prevedere le future pandemie

Le epidemie non si verificano nel vuoto, ma emergono da reti interconnesse di clima, ecologia, società e storia. In base a tale premessa, il progetto EUROpest, finanziato dal CER, si propone di svelare queste reti esaminando come i sistemi socio-ecologici abbiano plasmato i modelli di malattia nell’Europa tardo-medievale e proto-moderna. Attraverso un approccio interdisciplinare che coniuga documenti storici, archeologia, genetica, scienza del clima e apprendimento automatico, EUROpest studierà le epidemie regionali di peste in Europa. L’obiettivo è costruire un modello eco-bio-sociale che chiarisca come il contesto abbia influenzato la diffusione e l’impatto di malattie come la peste, la malaria e la tubercolosi. EUROpest si propone di dotare i responsabili delle politiche di strumenti più efficaci per affrontare le future epidemie.

Obiettivo

Born from years of interdisciplinary collaboration, EUROpest aims to articulate the complex ways in which social-ecological systems shape epidemics. It builds on resilience and actor-network theories to advance its own eco-bio-social paradigm that embraces a multi-causal understanding of disease transmission and disease impacts on human societies and ecosystems. While striving to develop and validate a general theoretical model, it takes the well-documented and highly diverse world of late medieval and early modern Europe as its laboratory – investigating its interconnected climatic, cultural, demographic, economic, ecological, and pathogenic history. With regard to the latter, EUROpest assumes malaria, smallpox, tuberculosis and enteric diseases were major components of a disease baseline over which the most devastating disease, plague (Y. pestis), occurred. EUROpest will carry out regional case studies – from Spain to Lithuania, Greece to England – selected on the basis of available and procurable written, scientific and archaeological data. It will holistically consider the contexts of plague outbreaks identified in those regions, to understand how context both facilitated outbreaks and also shaped them, and their short- and medium-term impacts. EUROpest combines archival source analysis with archaeology, archaeogenetics, paleoecology and paleoclimatology, and subjects case studies to novel human-supervised machine-learning to identify the causal role of factors influencing regional outbreaks. As the contemporary imagination is guided in its understanding of epidemic disease by the outbreaks of the past, EUROpest’s contribution will be critical to developing more nuanced and realistic scenarios of future pandemics, academic as well as popular. With EUROpest PIs already engaging policy makers, the mathematical precision of the eco-bio-social analysis EUROpest proposes will help design more successful and targeted interventions for future pandemic response.

Campo scientifico (EuroSciVoc)

Parole chiave

Programma(i)

Argomento(i)

Meccanismo di finanziamento

HORIZON-ERC-SYG - HORIZON ERC Synergy Grants

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(si apre in una nuova finestra) ERC-2024-SyG

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Istituzione ospitante

UNIWERSYTET MIKOLAJA KOPERNIKA
Contributo netto dell'UE
€ 2 300 750,00
Indirizzo
UL. JURIJA GAGARINA 11
87-100 TORUN
Polonia
Regione
Makroregion północny Kujawsko-pomorskie Bydgosko-toruński
Tipo di attività
Higher or Secondary Education Establishments
Collegamenti
Costo totale
€ 2 300 750,00

Beneficiari (15)