Descrizione del progetto
Comprendere i modelli spaziali dei cambiamenti idrologici in Europa
Le comunità subiscono l’effetto diretto dello spostamento delle correnti oceaniche e dei modelli di circolazione atmosferica, nonché dell’aumento dei periodi di siccità e degli eventi meteorologici estremi. Tuttavia, gli attuali modelli climatici mancano di informazioni fondamentali sui modelli spaziali dei cambiamenti idrologici, ostacolando l’attuazione efficace di strategie di mitigazione e adattamento ai cambiamenti climatici. Il progetto STEEPclim, finanziato dall’UE, intende colmare questa lacuna nelle conoscenze ricostruendo i cambiamenti idrologici storici durante le brusche variazioni della temperatura e della circolazione oceanica del passato, con particolare attenzione al continente europeo. Sfruttando un approccio a doppio biomarcatore, il progetto analizzerà record climatici terrestri precisi per generare preziosi dati paleoidrologici quantitativi. STEEPclim fornirà approfondimenti importanti sui modelli spaziali e sui meccanismi dei cambiamenti idrologici, consentendo alle comunità di costruire la propria resilienza contro le sfide climatiche future.
Obiettivo
With global temperatures on the rise due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, one of the largest short-term threats to societies comes from a changing water cycle: changing ocean currents and atmospheric circulation patterns, increased periods of drought or extreme precipitation events directly affect the socio-economic foundation of communities. However, one of the great unknowns in state-of-the art climate models predicting future changes is the spatial distribution of changing precipitation patterns. This lack of knowledge severely limits implementation of mitigation and adaptation options to divert the most severe consequences of climate change.
I propose a fundamentally new approach to understand spatial patterns and mechanisms of hydrological changes on the European continent by reconstructing such changes during past abrupt temperature and ocean circulation changes. We will develop an innovative research program integrating ideas and methods from diverse disciplines: organic geochemistry, plant physiology, event stratigraphy and geostatistical data analysis. We will generate quantitative paleohydrological data by developing a dual biomarker approach as a novel and direct proxy for fluxes in the hydrological cycle from 10 of the most precisely dated terrestrial climate records encompassing the European continent.
STEEPclim will enter uncharted territory and establish master records of continental climate change, comparable in resolution and quality to the polar ice cores. We will identify continental-scale feedback mechanisms and particularly vulnerable regions in European hydroclimate relevant for the evaluation of the consequences of ongoing climate change. These mechanistic insights will be essential to validate future generations of climate models, ensuring more accurate predictions of regional effects of anthropogenic climate changes and as such enable a targeted mitigation and adaptation policy.
Campo scientifico
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencespalaeontologypaleoclimatology
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologyatmospheric circulation
- natural sciencesbiological sciencesecologyecosystems
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesgeochemistryorganic geochemistry
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-COG - Consolidator GrantIstituzione ospitante
14473 POTSDAM
Germania