Objetivo "This project will develop a new framework for modeling economic agents having ""boundedly rational expectations"" (BRE). It is based on the concept of Bayesian networks (more generally, graphical models), borrowed from statistics and AI. In the framework's basic version, an agent is characterized by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) over the set of all relevant random variables. The DAG is the agent's ""type"" – it represents how he systematically distorts any objective probability distribution into a subjective belief. Technically, the distortion takes the form of the standard Bayesian-network factorization formula given by the agent's DAG. The agent's choice is modeled as a ""personal equilibrium"", because his subjective belief regarding the implications of his actions can vary with his own long-run behavior. The DAG representation unifies and simplifies existing models of BRE, subsuming them as special cases corresponding to distinct graphical representations. It captures hitherto-unmodeled fallacies such as reverse causation. The framework facilitates behavioral characterizations of general classes of models of BRE and expands their applicability. I will demonstrate this with applications to monetary policy, behavioral I.O. asset pricing, etc. I will extend the basic formalism to multi-agent environments, addressing issues beyond the reach of current models of BRE (e.g. formalizing the notion of ""high-order"" limited understanding of statistical regularities). Finally, I will seek a learning foundation for the graphical representation of BRE, in the sense that it will capture how the agent extrapolates his belief from a dataset (drawn from the objective distribution) containing ""missing values"", via some intuitive ""imputation method"". This part, too, borrows ideas from statistics and AI, further demonstrating the project's interdisciplinary nature." Ámbito científico natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligencenatural sciencesphysical sciencestheoretical physicsparticle physicssocial scienceseconomics and businesseconomicsmonetary and financesnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsgame theorysocial scienceseconomics and businessbusiness and managementemployment Palabras clave non-rational expectations graphical models Bayesian networks coarse reasoning causality equilibrium concepts attribution biases imputation entropy missing data Programa(s) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Tema(s) ERC-ADG-2015 - ERC Advanced Grant Convocatoria de propuestas ERC-2015-AdG Consulte otros proyectos de esta convocatoria Régimen de financiación ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant Institución de acogida UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON Aportación neta de la UEn € 777 038,00 Dirección GOWER STREET WC1E 6BT London Reino Unido Ver en el mapa Región London Inner London — West Camden and City of London Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Participación en los programas de I+D de la UE Opens in new window Red de colaboración de HORIZON Opens in new window Coste total € 777 038,00 Beneficiarios (2) Ordenar alfabéticamente Ordenar por aportación neta de la UE Ampliar todo Contraer todo UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON Reino Unido Aportación neta de la UEn € 777 038,00 Dirección GOWER STREET WC1E 6BT London Ver en el mapa Región London Inner London — West Camden and City of London Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Participación en los programas de I+D de la UE Opens in new window Red de colaboración de HORIZON Opens in new window Coste total € 777 038,00 TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY Israel Aportación neta de la UEn € 602 250,00 Dirección RAMAT AVIV 69978 Tel Aviv Ver en el mapa Tipo de actividad Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Enlaces Contactar con la organización Opens in new window Sitio web Opens in new window Participación en los programas de I+D de la UE Opens in new window Red de colaboración de HORIZON Opens in new window Coste total € 602 250,00