Cel "This project will develop a new framework for modeling economic agents having ""boundedly rational expectations"" (BRE). It is based on the concept of Bayesian networks (more generally, graphical models), borrowed from statistics and AI. In the framework's basic version, an agent is characterized by a directed acyclic graph (DAG) over the set of all relevant random variables. The DAG is the agent's ""type"" – it represents how he systematically distorts any objective probability distribution into a subjective belief. Technically, the distortion takes the form of the standard Bayesian-network factorization formula given by the agent's DAG. The agent's choice is modeled as a ""personal equilibrium"", because his subjective belief regarding the implications of his actions can vary with his own long-run behavior. The DAG representation unifies and simplifies existing models of BRE, subsuming them as special cases corresponding to distinct graphical representations. It captures hitherto-unmodeled fallacies such as reverse causation. The framework facilitates behavioral characterizations of general classes of models of BRE and expands their applicability. I will demonstrate this with applications to monetary policy, behavioral I.O. asset pricing, etc. I will extend the basic formalism to multi-agent environments, addressing issues beyond the reach of current models of BRE (e.g. formalizing the notion of ""high-order"" limited understanding of statistical regularities). Finally, I will seek a learning foundation for the graphical representation of BRE, in the sense that it will capture how the agent extrapolates his belief from a dataset (drawn from the objective distribution) containing ""missing values"", via some intuitive ""imputation method"". This part, too, borrows ideas from statistics and AI, further demonstrating the project's interdisciplinary nature." Dziedzina nauki natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligencenatural sciencesphysical sciencestheoretical physicsparticle physicssocial scienceseconomics and businesseconomicsmonetary and financesnatural sciencesmathematicsapplied mathematicsgame theorysocial scienceseconomics and businessbusiness and managementemployment Słowa kluczowe non-rational expectations graphical models Bayesian networks coarse reasoning causality equilibrium concepts attribution biases imputation entropy missing data Program(-y) H2020-EU.1.1. - EXCELLENT SCIENCE - European Research Council (ERC) Main Programme Temat(-y) ERC-ADG-2015 - ERC Advanced Grant Zaproszenie do składania wniosków ERC-2015-AdG Zobacz inne projekty w ramach tego zaproszenia System finansowania ERC-ADG - Advanced Grant Instytucja przyjmująca UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON Wkład UE netto € 777 038,00 Adres GOWER STREET WC1E 6BT London Zjednoczone Królestwo Zobacz na mapie Region London Inner London — West Camden and City of London Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Uczestnictwo w unijnych programach w zakresie badań i innowacji Opens in new window sieć współpracy HORIZON Opens in new window Koszt całkowity € 777 038,00 Beneficjenci (2) Sortuj alfabetycznie Sortuj według wkładu UE netto Rozwiń wszystko Zwiń wszystko UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON Zjednoczone Królestwo Wkład UE netto € 777 038,00 Adres GOWER STREET WC1E 6BT London Zobacz na mapie Region London Inner London — West Camden and City of London Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Uczestnictwo w unijnych programach w zakresie badań i innowacji Opens in new window sieć współpracy HORIZON Opens in new window Koszt całkowity € 777 038,00 TEL AVIV UNIVERSITY Izrael Wkład UE netto € 602 250,00 Adres RAMAT AVIV 69978 Tel Aviv Zobacz na mapie Rodzaj działalności Higher or Secondary Education Establishments Linki Kontakt z organizacją Opens in new window Strona internetowa Opens in new window Uczestnictwo w unijnych programach w zakresie badań i innowacji Opens in new window sieć współpracy HORIZON Opens in new window Koszt całkowity € 602 250,00
