Descrizione del progetto
L’impatto del comportamento degli agricoltori sui cambiamenti climatici
I cambiamenti climatici possono ridurre la produttività agricola. Nel contesto odierno in cui l’aumento delle temperature, la diminuzione delle precipitazioni, le alluvioni e le siccità diventano fenomeni frequenti, affrontare questo problema è divenuto una necessità. Le risposte dei singoli agricoltori sono fondamentali per ridurre la vulnerabilità e garantire la durata dei sistemi di irrigazione multifunzionali. Il progetto MODFaBe, finanziato dall’UE, si propone di modellare il comportamento degli agricoltori e di informare gli attori del mercato in merito all’efficienza di metodi di intervento alternativi. Esso valuterà il comportamento degli agricoltori nel distretto di irrigazione del canale della Muzza, in provincia di Milano. Il progetto approfondirà inoltre la misura in cui la modellizzazione del comportamento può rendere l’agricoltura sostenibile, flessibile e adattabile ai cambiamenti climatici.
Obiettivo
Agriculture is one of the sectors most affected by climate change, especially in lower latitude areas, were climate change will result in increased temperature, reduced rainfall, and increased frequency of extreme weather events such as floods and droughts. Water and food nexus, often embedded in seemingly endless ecological, social and political interactions, are context-dependent, socially constructed and technically uncertain. Modelling techniques have been recognized, also in social sciences, as effective computational techniques to simulate social influence processes in human-nature systems from interactions within community of individual agents. The aim of the proposal is to reduce the vulnerability and improve the resilience of multifunctional irrigation systems to climate change scenarios by modelling individual farmer’ behaviour and informing managers and decision-makers about the effectiveness of different types of interventions. Through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and evidence-based analysis from social learning process (survey sample, interviews, statistical analyses, behavioural modelling simulations, artificial intelligence), insights are collected on how individual farmer and key stakeholders behave with respect to climate change adaptation in Coupled Human Natural Systems (CHNS), such as hydrosocial systems (e.g. multifunctional irrigation systems). A key question in today climate change adaptation research will be addressed: Can behaviour modelling help farmers to promote actions and anticipate decisions to adapt to climate change and become more sustainable and resilient? The assessment of farmer’ behavioural on climate change adaptation measures will be conducted on the Muzza irrigation district, located southeast of the city of Milan (Northern Italy). Modelling human behaviour can be used as a safe laboratory for policy experimentation, testing the effectiveness of strategies and policy measures on climate change.
Campo scientifico
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesartificial intelligence
- engineering and technologycivil engineeringwater engineeringirrigation
- agricultural sciencesagriculture, forestry, and fisheriesagriculture
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinatore
20133 Milano
Italia