Descrizione del progetto
Allineare la finanza alla stabilità climatica
Una doppia sfida sistemica attende le società europee. In primo luogo, dovranno orientarsi verso un sistema produttivo a basse emissioni di carbonio per mitigare i cambiamenti climatici. In secondo luogo, dovranno ridurre al minimo le perturbazioni economiche e finanziarie che questa transizione potrebbe provocare. Per raggiungere questi obiettivi, i sistemi finanziari devono essere allineati agli obiettivi di stabilità climatica e di transizione. Per questo motivo il progetto SMOOTH, finanziato dall’UE, approfondirà le barriere psicologiche e istituzionali agli investimenti a basse emissioni di carbonio e svilupperà un nuovo quadro analitico macro-finanziario per studiare i potenziali scenari di decarbonizzazione. Combinando la macroeconomia del clima, la finanza comportamentale e l’economia politica, questo quadro analizzerà i fattori e gli ostacoli finanziari, nonché le loro implicazioni per la crescita, la stabilità finanziaria, l’occupazione, la distribuzione e il debito pubblico/privato.
Obiettivo
The threat of climate change calls for a rapid transition to a low-carbon society. Aligning the financial system with climate stability is a crucial prerequisite for achieving decarbonisation while preserving economic prosperity and societal welfare. However, we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of how the institutional and behavioural features of financial systems may affect the speed and shape of the low-carbon transition. Additionally, the coevolving socioeconomic, financial and environmental repercussions of such a large-scale societal transformation have not yet been systematically analysed. The SMOOTH project will lay the foundations of an innovative macro-financial analytical framework to provide essential insights on the links between financial systems and decarbonisation dynamics. Methodologically, I will introduce a breakthrough by linking macroeconomic analysis with an original evidence-based representation of investment decisions based on forward-looking expectations of transition pathways. In the course of five years, this integrated modelling framework will enable the first comprehensive assessment of the transition financial drivers and obstacles, and their implications for growth, financial stability, employment, private/public debt and functional distribution, with a focus on Europe. Building on this knowledge, a harmonised set of policies aimed at achieving a rapid and smooth transition can be designed. I will go beyond the current state of the art by integrating the analysis of fiscal policies with monetary policies and financial regulation, and investigating their institutional requirements and implications. SMOOTH will create a new interdisciplinary field of research integrating elements from macroeconomic modelling, climate economics, behavioural finance, socio-technical transition theory and political science, lifting the analytical power of transition modelling to a new level and opening up novel avenues for future research.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-STG - Starting GrantIstituzione ospitante
40126 Bologna
Italia