Periodic Reporting for period 1 - AQ-WATCH (Air Quality: Worldwide Analysis and Forecasting of Atmospheric Composition for Health)
Berichtszeitraum: 2020-01-01 bis 2020-12-31
According to the World Health Organization, ambient air pollution accounts for an estimated 4.2 million deaths per year due to stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, acute and chronic respiratory diseases. Around 91% of the world's population lives in places where air pollution levels exceed WHO limits. Long-term mitigation actions must be developed to address what can be viewed as a lasting pandemic, which requires fundamental changes in our way of life and in our economic system. In the meantime, air quality forecasts and source attribution can generate immediate actions to reduce the exposure of the population.
To help public services and private corporations to take appropriate actions, AQ-WATCH is co-developing and co-producing innovative downstream products and services derived from space and in situ observational data, and tailored to the identified needs of international users. Through the efficient use of the large array of space and in-situ observations available together with new advanced multi-scale predictive models and downscaling techniques, the purpose of these products and services is to provide a better understanding and mapping of air quality aimed at improving public health and optimizing renewable energy in different regions of the world. A prototype production chain has been initiated through dynamic interactions between the developers of the prototype products/services and three prime users in different parts of the world (Colorado, USA; Santiago, Chile; greater Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, P.R. China). The process by which value is added to space and in situ data is being modulated by the input of these users and is involving successive iterations during which feedback reactions are collected and analysed, and included in the new development.
To help public services and private corporations to take appropriate actions, AQ-WATCH is co-developing and co-producing innovative downstream products and services derived from space and in situ observational data, and tailored to the identified needs of international users. Through the efficient use of the large array of space and in-situ observations available together with new advanced multi-scale predictive models and downscaling techniques, the purpose of these products and services is to provide a better understanding and mapping of air quality aimed at improving public health and optimizing renewable energy in different regions of the world. A prototype production chain has been initiated through dynamic interactions between the developers of the prototype products/services and three prime users in different parts of the world (Colorado, USA; Santiago, Chile; greater Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, P.R. China). The process by which value is added to space and in situ data is being modulated by the input of these users and is involving successive iterations during which feedback reactions are collected and analysed, and included in the new development.
Partners have contributed to the discussion for the development of prototypes for the seven innovative products that are based on existing space, in situ observations and model outputs of air quality. The detailed technical specifications for the seven products under development have been established. Since the technology and the layout of some of these products has clear similarities, it was decided to combine some of these products in the format of four modules. The different modules allow users to access historical and air pollution data as well as air quality forecasts at a global and regional scale, to compare different air pollution reduction scenarios and to assess the effect of wildfires or fracking activities on air quality, and to derive the changes in solar irradiance due to the presence of dust in the atmosphere. Through repeated consultations with the prime users and members of the project’s Advisory Group, the conceptual design and usability of the products and services will gradually be updated and improved during the course of the project. Mockups for each module have already been produced and assembled as part of a Mitigation Toolkit to become available to the stakeholders by the end of the project. This toolkit will allow them to assess past, current and future air quality levels as well as to see the effects of mitigation efforts and of fracking activities and different pollution sources.
Besides the development of the Mitigation Toolkit with all the modules defined in AQ-WATCH, a key part in this first year of the project was the preparation of the datasets that will effectively feed to the products to be made available. Partners have been preparing and analysing satellite and in situ observations from different sources including the global re-analysis of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) that will feed the global and regional atlases. Modelling groups have been discussing the details for the production of air quality forecasts and are adapting existing models to cover the three main regions in the project. Some of these model runs will also produce forecasts for the regional transport of trace gases and aerosols released during large wildfire events or the dispersion of aerosols such as dust particles following intense dust storms, which can have a large impact on the aviation industry by affecting visibility of airplanes and also on the solar energy production industry through the dust deposition on solar panels.
In order to set up an air pollution mitigation service, the partners also focused on the implementation and first evaluation of the LOTOS-EUROS model for Chile and Colorado and on the evaluation of the current WRF-CHEM forecasts for Colorado. These outputs will be made available via one of the modules of the system being developed in AQ-WATCH. In contrast to other products, the “Fracking” module will be an informational tool based on data and analysis of field campaigns. Using emissions based on this dataset, model studies have been conducted that assess the contribution of oil and gas extraction activities to air pollution.
The comprehensive Dissemination, Communication and Exploitation strategy of AQ-WATCH provides concrete measures to disseminate project results, to communicate its activities and to exploit the project outcomes. The strategy also highlights the methods through which these measures may increase the overall impact of the project, and how the consortium initially plans to exploit project activities and results. In order to support this and the product development process, a business case has been developed that aims at establishing the mechanism to judge whether the project and the expected results are desirable, viable and achievable in relation with the investment required. A first iteration of a business case is already available, but must be further developed after consultation with potential customers including prime users. Finally, the exchanges with the stakeholders and the more detailed information on the products will be the basis to build a sound business model in the second part of the project.
Besides the development of the Mitigation Toolkit with all the modules defined in AQ-WATCH, a key part in this first year of the project was the preparation of the datasets that will effectively feed to the products to be made available. Partners have been preparing and analysing satellite and in situ observations from different sources including the global re-analysis of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) that will feed the global and regional atlases. Modelling groups have been discussing the details for the production of air quality forecasts and are adapting existing models to cover the three main regions in the project. Some of these model runs will also produce forecasts for the regional transport of trace gases and aerosols released during large wildfire events or the dispersion of aerosols such as dust particles following intense dust storms, which can have a large impact on the aviation industry by affecting visibility of airplanes and also on the solar energy production industry through the dust deposition on solar panels.
In order to set up an air pollution mitigation service, the partners also focused on the implementation and first evaluation of the LOTOS-EUROS model for Chile and Colorado and on the evaluation of the current WRF-CHEM forecasts for Colorado. These outputs will be made available via one of the modules of the system being developed in AQ-WATCH. In contrast to other products, the “Fracking” module will be an informational tool based on data and analysis of field campaigns. Using emissions based on this dataset, model studies have been conducted that assess the contribution of oil and gas extraction activities to air pollution.
The comprehensive Dissemination, Communication and Exploitation strategy of AQ-WATCH provides concrete measures to disseminate project results, to communicate its activities and to exploit the project outcomes. The strategy also highlights the methods through which these measures may increase the overall impact of the project, and how the consortium initially plans to exploit project activities and results. In order to support this and the product development process, a business case has been developed that aims at establishing the mechanism to judge whether the project and the expected results are desirable, viable and achievable in relation with the investment required. A first iteration of a business case is already available, but must be further developed after consultation with potential customers including prime users. Finally, the exchanges with the stakeholders and the more detailed information on the products will be the basis to build a sound business model in the second part of the project.
The products that are being developed by AQ-WATCH will provide services from one single place that will cater for different stakeholder needs. Through the integration of CAMS global products into regional downscaling applications enriched by local information and in-situ observations added value will be provided on top of the Copernicus data. The AQ-WATCH multi-model forecasting, nowcasting and alert systems will be provided on a higher spatial resolution than currently available. This is particularly true for forecasts of dust beyond the state-of-the-art in regions where high-resolution forecasts are not available. The forecast will be done at a spatial resolution that is higher than the forecasts currently available. AQ-WATCH is also developing state-of-art source apportionment systems for anthropogenic and natural emission sources, differentiating ~25 source contributions including the most important sectors as well as different fuel use or emission processes within these sectors.
The collaborative work done by AQ-WATCH partners shows the strategic interaction between research (MPI-M, FMI, BSC, CNRS, UCAR) and business-oriented (INERIS DEVELOPPEMENT, MapTiler, BreezoMeter, TNO) partners from the consortium. With the development of a strong business case, it will be possible to have a good introduction of AQ-WATCH products and services in the market. This will allow us to describe, design, challenge, invent, and pivot the future business.
The collaborative work done by AQ-WATCH partners shows the strategic interaction between research (MPI-M, FMI, BSC, CNRS, UCAR) and business-oriented (INERIS DEVELOPPEMENT, MapTiler, BreezoMeter, TNO) partners from the consortium. With the development of a strong business case, it will be possible to have a good introduction of AQ-WATCH products and services in the market. This will allow us to describe, design, challenge, invent, and pivot the future business.