Description du projet
Améliorer la fiabilité des prévisions saisonnières
Les prévisions saisonnières fiables apportent des informations essentielles sur la prochaine saison, qu’elle soit plus humide, plus sèche, plus chaude ou plus froide que prévu. Ces informations sont importantes pour de nombreux secteurs qui dépendent des conditions météorologiques comme les énergies renouvelables et sont tout aussi importantes pour mieux se préparer aux catastrophes. Le projet CLIMFOR, financé par l’UE, développe un moteur de prévision intelligent et probabiliste basé sur les données d’observation de la Terre et in-situ capable de produire des prévisions saisonnières (de quelques-unes à une dizaine de semaines) très fiables. Son principal objectif consiste à améliorer la manière dont les risques et les opportunités liés au changement climatique sont actuellement abordés lors des négociations relatives au climat, dans les politiques de développement durable, l’aide humanitaire et la gestion des crises, et à faciliter une intégration en douceur des sources d’énergie renouvelables dans le réseau.
Objectif
6,873 natural disasters happened worldwide in the period 1994-2013 (e.g. floods, drought, and other extreme weather phenomena) killing 68,000 people and affecting 218 million more annually. The early implementation of Disaster Risk Reduction strategies strongly depends on the availability of reliable seasonal forecasts. But global, long-term climate forecasting models are used for seasonal prediction and they are very inaccurate as they have not been designed to this end. On the other hand, the intermittent nature of renewable energy sources is a challenge to grid operators, utilities and plant managers as they attempt to anticipate energy output. Reliable weather forecasts enabling an accurate prediction of energy generation in order to balance production and demand is key to boost the production of renewables and their smooth integration into the grid. Current weather forecasts used by this industry do not focus in predicting relevant variables for the energy sector (such as solar radiation). At geopredict we have put the most recent mathematical algorithms based on Artificial Intelligence into the task of revolutionising atmospheric forecasts and have created CLIMFOR, an intelligent, probabilistic, forecasting engine based on earth observation and in-situ data producing very reliable seasonal (medium-term: from few weeks up to a decade) forecasts with high spatial resolution (down to 1x1 km). With CLIMFOR we aim at improving the way we currently deal with the risks and opportunities arising from global change through climate negotiations, sustainable development policy, humanitarian aid and crisis management, as well as enabling a smooth integration of renewable energy sources into the grid. By targeting the renewable energy providers, disaster risk reduction players and the insurance sector, we expect to start commercialising CLIMFOR service in 2021 and reach an accumulated revenue of €13 million after 3 years and increase our headcount with almost 25 employees
Champ scientifique
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsrenewable energysolar energy
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringenergy and fuelsfossil energynatural gas
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesmeteorologysolar radiation
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis management
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesphysical geographynatural disasters
Programme(s)
Régime de financement
SME-1 - SME instrument phase 1Coordinateur
17489 GREIFSWALD
Allemagne
L’entreprise s’est définie comme une PME (petite et moyenne entreprise) au moment de la signature de la convention de subvention.