Description du projet
Comment l’élévation du niveau de la mer et les inondations affectent-elles le comportement d’adaptation et de migration de l’homme?
L’élévation du niveau de la mer, les inondations extrêmes et l’urbanisation accroîtront les risques d’inondations côtières à l’avenir. Il est cependant difficile de prédire les zones côtières qui seront protégées et de savoir quels riverains seront obligés de migrer. Le projet COASTMOVE, financé par l’UE, entend relever les défis posés par ces tendances et auxquels sont confrontées les politiques d’adaptation et de migration. À cette fin, le projet se concentrera sur le comportement d’adaptation et de migration des riverains et d’autres agents en intégrant un modèle mondial de risque d’inondation côtière à un modèle basé sur les agents (MBA). Les résultats du projet seront utilisés pour évaluer les politiques d’adaptation et de migration.
Objectif
Future sea level rise (SLR), extreme flood events, and urbanization pressure will increase coastal flood risk, and in the absence of costly flood protection measures in numerous regions, millions of coastal residents will be forced to migrate to safer locations. This research addresses the significant challenge these trends pose to adaptation and migration policy: Which coastal areas will be protected, and in which regions will coastal migration become the inevitable adaptation option?
To tackle this challenge, I propose focusing on the human adaptive and migration behavior of residents and other agents within one global framework by integrating (1) a global coastal flood risk model with (2) an agent-based model (ABM). Current global coastal risk assessment and migration methods do not address individuals’ dynamic decisions regarding SLR and extreme flood events, and instead assume their adaptive behavior remains constant. However, the drivers that motivate people to migrate and adapt vary over time and space, and to capture these drivers (3) empirical data will be collected across seven surveys to parametrize realistic ranges for the behavioral rules in the ABM. (4) Novel global databases on flood protection, demography and socio-economy will be developed to extrapolate behavioral rules from the cases to other coastal areas. (5) State-of-the-art big-data methods using Twitter, mobile phone and IRS tax-filing data will be used to calibrate and validate migration patterns simulated by the global framework.
The framework offers several advantages: high resolution (1x1km2) global migration, adaptation, and risk projections (2020–2100); novel maps of future migration hotspots; an improved understanding of what drivers (environmental, socio-economic, demographic, etc.) and interactions between stakeholders influence adaptation and migration decisions; and groundbreaking big-data validation. The framework will be used to assess adaptation and migration policies.
Champ scientifique
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabases
- social sciencessociologydemography
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis managementflood risk management
- engineering and technologyelectrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineeringinformation engineeringtelecommunicationsmobile phones
Programme(s)
Thème(s)
Régime de financement
ERC-ADG - Advanced GrantInstitution d’accueil
1081 HV Amsterdam
Pays-Bas