Project description
How rising sea levels and floods affect human adaptive and migration behaviour
Rising sea levels, extreme flood events and urbanisation will increase the risk of coastal floods in the future. However, it is unclear which coastal areas will be protected and in which regions residents will be forced to migrate. The EU-funded COASTMOVE project aims to address the challenges these trends pose to adaptation and migration policy. To this end, it will focus on the adaptive and migration behaviour of residents and other agents by integrating a global coastal flood risk model with an agent-based model (ABM). The project’s results will be used to evaluate adaptation and migration policies.
Objective
Future sea level rise (SLR), extreme flood events, and urbanization pressure will increase coastal flood risk, and in the absence of costly flood protection measures in numerous regions, millions of coastal residents will be forced to migrate to safer locations. This research addresses the significant challenge these trends pose to adaptation and migration policy: Which coastal areas will be protected, and in which regions will coastal migration become the inevitable adaptation option?
To tackle this challenge, I propose focusing on the human adaptive and migration behavior of residents and other agents within one global framework by integrating (1) a global coastal flood risk model with (2) an agent-based model (ABM). Current global coastal risk assessment and migration methods do not address individuals’ dynamic decisions regarding SLR and extreme flood events, and instead assume their adaptive behavior remains constant. However, the drivers that motivate people to migrate and adapt vary over time and space, and to capture these drivers (3) empirical data will be collected across seven surveys to parametrize realistic ranges for the behavioral rules in the ABM. (4) Novel global databases on flood protection, demography and socio-economy will be developed to extrapolate behavioral rules from the cases to other coastal areas. (5) State-of-the-art big-data methods using Twitter, mobile phone and IRS tax-filing data will be used to calibrate and validate migration patterns simulated by the global framework.
The framework offers several advantages: high resolution (1x1km2) global migration, adaptation, and risk projections (2020–2100); novel maps of future migration hotspots; an improved understanding of what drivers (environmental, socio-economic, demographic, etc.) and interactions between stakeholders influence adaptation and migration decisions; and groundbreaking big-data validation. The framework will be used to assess adaptation and migration policies.
Fields of science
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencesdatabases
- social sciencessociologydemography
- social sciencessociologygovernancecrisis managementflood risk management
- engineering and technologyelectrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineeringinformation engineeringtelecommunicationsmobile phones
Programme(s)
Topic(s)
Funding Scheme
ERC-ADG - Advanced GrantHost institution
1081 HV Amsterdam
Netherlands