Projektbeschreibung
Die Anfälligkeit des Kohlenstoffs im Permafrost für den Klimawandel in der Arktis quantifizieren
Der arktische Permafrost speichert immense Mengen Kohlenstoff und ist somit ein wesentliches Element des globalen Klimasystems. Hydrologie, Topographie und Biologie sind drei zentrale Faktoren, welche die Rückwirkungen zwischen dem Kohlenstoff im arktischen Permafrost und dem Klimawandel steuern. Das vom Europäischen Forschungsrat finanzierte Projekt Q-ARCTIC wird eine beispiellose prozessbasierte Synthese der aktuellen und früheren Anfälligkeit des Kohlenstoffs im Permafrost sowie Prognosen der Nachhaltigkeit des Permafrosts unter bestimmten Zukunftsszenarien erzeugen. Dabei wird ein Schwerpunkt auf abrupten Veränderungen liegen. Die bahnbrechende Forschung beruht auf dem neu entwickelten Erdsystemmodell (ICON-ESM), das hochauflösende Simulationen auf der Grundlage einer Infrastruktur für Hochleistungsrechner ermöglicht. Das Projekt wird synergetisch Fernerkundungsdaten der europäischen Sentinel-Satelliten, Beobachtungen auf Standortebene sowie globale Modellsimulationen einsetzen.
Ziel
Arctic permafrost has been identified as a critical element in the global climate system, since it stores a vast amount of carbon that is at high risk of being released under climate change. The feedbacks between permafrost carbon and climate change are moderated by many factors, including hydrology, topography, and biology. Shifts in these factors lead to highly complex feedbacks between biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes. These are only rudimentarily represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs), in particular due to a scaling gap between processes and model grid.
Q-ARCTIC will establish a next generation coupled land-surface model that explicitly resolves highest resolution landscape features and disturbance processes in the Arctic. Model development will be informed by novel remote sensing methodologies linking landscape characteristics and change potential at an exceptional level of detail. Interdisciplinary observations at multiple spatiotemporal scales will deliver novel insight into permafrost carbon cycle processes. All components are essential for our objective to generate an unprecedented process-based hindcast of glacial permafrost carbon state and projection of permafrost sustainability under future scenarios with a focus on abrupt changes.
Our ground-breaking research is based on the newly developed ICON-ESM that enables highest-resolution simulations based on high-performance computing infrastructure. The required remote sensing information can for the first time be produced from new pan-Arctic data streams, such as the European Sentinel satellites. Finally, recent breakthroughs in ultraportable instrumentation and mobile air- and water-borne platforms facilitate bridging the gap between in-situ process understanding and landscape-scale surface-atmosphere exchange. The Q-ARCTIC PI-consortium will combine their world-leading expertise in these fields to close the scaling gap between high-resolution processes and the coarser ESM resolution.
Wissenschaftliches Gebiet
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental scienceshydrology
- natural sciencesphysical sciencesastronomyplanetary sciencesplanetary geology
- engineering and technologyenvironmental engineeringremote sensing
- natural sciencesearth and related environmental sciencesatmospheric sciencesclimatologyclimatic changes
- natural sciencescomputer and information sciencessoftwaresoftware applicationssimulation software
Schlüsselbegriffe
Programm/Programme
Thema/Themen
Finanzierungsplan
ERC-SyG - Synergy grantGastgebende Einrichtung
80539 Munchen
Deutschland