european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Informacje na temat projektu

EDIPI

Identyfikator umowy o grant: 956396

DOI

10.3030/956396

Projekt został zamknięty

Data podpisania przez KE 13 Sierpnia 2020

Data rozpoczęcia 1 Marca 2021

Data zakończenia 28 Lutego 2025

Finansowanie w ramach

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Koszt całkowity

€ 3 813 089,76

Wkład UE

€ 3 813 089,76

Koordynowany przez

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS oferuje możliwość skorzystania z odnośników do publicznie dostępnych publikacji i rezultatów projektów realizowanych w ramach programów ramowych HORYZONT.

Odnośniki do rezultatów i publikacji związanych z poszczególnymi projektami 7PR, a także odnośniki do niektórych konkretnych kategorii wyników, takich jak zbiory danych i oprogramowanie, są dynamicznie pobierane z systemu OpenAIRE .

Rezultaty

Documents, reports (17)

Primary Education outreach documentation

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

Project website online.

Publikacje

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Autorzy: Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numer 5, 2021, Strona(/y) : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Wydawca: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe

Autorzy: Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Strona(/y) 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

Autorzy: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Opublikowane w: WIREs Water, Numer 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Wydawca: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Autorzy: Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Opublikowane w: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Numer 77, 2025, Strona(/y) 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Wydawca: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

Autorzy: Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 7, 2024, Strona(/y) 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Autorzy: Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 19, 2024, Strona(/y) 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Autorzy: Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Wydawca: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking?

Autorzy: Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Opublikowane w: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Numer 82, 2025, Strona(/y) 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Autorzy: Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numer 5, 2024, Strona(/y) 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021

Autorzy: Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Autorzy: B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Opublikowane w: Earth's Future, Numer 12, 2024, Strona(/y) e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autorzy: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Opublikowane w: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Numer 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Wydawca: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Autorzy: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Opublikowane w: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numer 150, 2025, Strona(/y) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Wydawca: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Autorzy: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Opublikowane w: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numer 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Wydawca: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Autorzy: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numer 5, 2024, Strona(/y) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Wydawca: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Autorzy: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Opublikowane w: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numer 24, 2024, Strona(/y) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Autorzy: Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Public Health, Numer 9, 2024, Strona(/y) e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Wydawca: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic

Autorzy: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves

Autorzy: Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Opublikowane w: Oxford Open Climate Change, Numer 5, 2025, Strona(/y) kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Wydawca: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence

Autorzy: Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer 14, 2025, Strona(/y) 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

Autorzy: Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Opublikowane w: Climate Dynamics, Numer Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Strona(/y) Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model

Autorzy: Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Opublikowane w: Earth System Dynamics, Numer Volume 5, Numer 4, 2024, Strona(/y) 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Wydawca: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Autorzy: Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Opublikowane w: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numer 44, 2024, Strona(/y) 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Wydawca: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?

Autorzy: Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Opublikowane w: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numer 24, 2025, Strona(/y) 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Wydawca: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Autorzy: Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Opublikowane w: Journal of Climate, Numer 37, 2025, Strona(/y) 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Wydawca: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe

Autorzy: A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 20, 2025, Strona(/y) 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany

Autorzy: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Opublikowane w: Environmental Research Letters, Numer 19, 2023, Strona(/y) 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Wydawca: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Autorzy: Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Opublikowane w: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numer Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Strona(/y) E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Wydawca: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Autorzy: J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Opublikowane w: Geophysical Research Letters, Numer 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Wydawca: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Autorzy: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Opublikowane w: Physical Review E, Numer 110, 2024, Strona(/y) Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Wydawca: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Autorzy: Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Opublikowane w: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Numer 155, 2024, Strona(/y) 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Wydawca: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z