european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Informazioni relative al progetto

EDIPI

ID dell’accordo di sovvenzione: 956396

DOI

10.3030/956396

Progetto chiuso

Data della firma CE 13 Agosto 2020

Data di avvio 1 Marzo 2021

Data di completamento 28 Febbraio 2025

Finanziato da

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Costo totale

€ 3 813 089,76

Contributo UE

€ 3 813 089,76

Coordinato da

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS fornisce collegamenti ai risultati finali pubblici e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti ORIZZONTE.

I link ai risultati e alle pubblicazioni dei progetti del 7° PQ, così come i link ad alcuni tipi di risultati specifici come dataset e software, sono recuperati dinamicamente da .OpenAIRE .

Risultati finali

Documents, reports (17)

Primary Education outreach documentation

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

Project website online.

Pubblicazioni

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Autori: Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numero 5, 2021, Pagina/e : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Editore: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe

Autori: Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Pagina/e 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

Autori: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Pubblicato in: WIREs Water, Numero 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Editore: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Autori: Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Pubblicato in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Numero 77, 2025, Pagina/e 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Editore: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

Autori: Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 7, 2024, Pagina/e 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Autori: Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 19, 2024, Pagina/e 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Autori: Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editore: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking?

Autori: Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Pubblicato in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Numero 82, 2025, Pagina/e 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Autori: Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 5, 2024, Pagina/e 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021

Autori: Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Autori: B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Pubblicato in: Earth's Future, Numero 12, 2024, Pagina/e e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Editore: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autori: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Pubblicato in: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Numero 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Editore: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Autori: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numero 150, 2025, Pagina/e 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Editore: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Autori: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Pubblicato in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numero 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editore: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Autori: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numero 5, 2024, Pagina/e 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Editore: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Autori: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numero 24, 2024, Pagina/e 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Autori: Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Public Health, Numero 9, 2024, Pagina/e e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Editore: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic

Autori: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves

Autori: Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Pubblicato in: Oxford Open Climate Change, Numero 5, 2025, Pagina/e kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Editore: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence

Autori: Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero 14, 2025, Pagina/e 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

Autori: Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Pubblicato in: Climate Dynamics, Numero Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Pagina/e Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model

Autori: Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Pubblicato in: Earth System Dynamics, Numero Volume 5, Numero 4, 2024, Pagina/e 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Editore: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Autori: Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Pubblicato in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numero 44, 2024, Pagina/e 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Editore: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?

Autori: Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Pubblicato in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numero 24, 2025, Pagina/e 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Editore: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Autori: Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Pubblicato in: Journal of Climate, Numero 37, 2025, Pagina/e 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Editore: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe

Autori: A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 20, 2025, Pagina/e 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany

Autori: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Pubblicato in: Environmental Research Letters, Numero 19, 2023, Pagina/e 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Editore: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Autori: Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Pubblicato in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numero Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Pagina/e E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Editore: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Autori: J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Pubblicato in: Geophysical Research Letters, Numero 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Editore: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Autori: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Pubblicato in: Physical Review E, Numero 110, 2024, Pagina/e Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Editore: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Autori: Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Pubblicato in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Numero 155, 2024, Pagina/e 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Editore: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z