european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Información del proyecto

EDIPI

Identificador del acuerdo de subvención: 956396

DOI

10.3030/956396

Proyecto cerrado

Fecha de la firma de la CE 13 Agosto 2020

Fecha de inicio 1 Marzo 2021

Fecha de finalización 28 Febrero 2025

Financiado con arreglo a

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coste total

€ 3 813 089,76

Aportación de la UE

€ 3 813 089,76

Coordinado por

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS proporciona enlaces a los documentos públicos y las publicaciones de los proyectos de los programas marco HORIZONTE.

Los enlaces a los documentos y las publicaciones de los proyectos del Séptimo Programa Marco, así como los enlaces a algunos tipos de resultados específicos, como conjuntos de datos y «software», se obtienen dinámicamente de OpenAIRE .

Resultado final

Documents, reports (17)

Primary Education outreach documentation

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

Project website online.

Publicaciones

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Autores: Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Publicado en: The Lancet Planetary Health, Edición 5, 2021, Página(s) : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe

Autores: Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Página(s) 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

Autores: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Publicado en: WIREs Water, Edición 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Editor: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Autores: Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publicado en: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Edición 77, 2025, Página(s) 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Editor: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

Autores: Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 7, 2024, Página(s) 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Autores: Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 19, 2024, Página(s) 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Autores: Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Editor: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking?

Autores: Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Publicado en: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Edición 82, 2025, Página(s) 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Autores: Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 5, 2024, Página(s) 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021

Autores: Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Autores: B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Publicado en: Earth's Future, Edición 12, 2024, Página(s) e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Editor: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autores: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Publicado en: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Edición 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Editor: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Autores: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Edición 150, 2025, Página(s) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Editor: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Autores: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Publicado en: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Edición 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Editor: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Autores: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Edición 5, 2024, Página(s) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Editor: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Autores: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Edición 24, 2024, Página(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Autores: Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Publicado en: The Lancet Public Health, Edición 9, 2024, Página(s) e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Editor: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic

Autores: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves

Autores: Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Publicado en: Oxford Open Climate Change, Edición 5, 2025, Página(s) kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Editor: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence

Autores: Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición 14, 2025, Página(s) 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

Autores: Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Publicado en: Climate Dynamics, Edición Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Página(s) Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model

Autores: Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Publicado en: Earth System Dynamics, Edición Volume 5, Edición 4, 2024, Página(s) 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Editor: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Autores: Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publicado en: Weather and Climate Extremes, Edición 44, 2024, Página(s) 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Editor: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?

Autores: Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publicado en: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Edición 24, 2025, Página(s) 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Editor: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Autores: Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Publicado en: Journal of Climate, Edición 37, 2025, Página(s) 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Editor: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe

Autores: A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 20, 2025, Página(s) 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany

Autores: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Publicado en: Environmental Research Letters, Edición 19, 2023, Página(s) 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Editor: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Autores: Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Publicado en: The Lancet Planetary Health, Edición Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Página(s) E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Editor: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Autores: J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Publicado en: Geophysical Research Letters, Edición 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Editor: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Autores: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Publicado en: Physical Review E, Edición 110, 2024, Página(s) Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Editor: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Autores: Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publicado en: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Edición 155, 2024, Página(s) 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Editor: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z