european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Informations projet

EDIPI

N° de convention de subvention: 956396

DOI

10.3030/956396

Projet clôturé

Date de signature de la CE 13 Août 2020

Date de début 1 Mars 2021

Date de fin 28 Février 2025

Financé au titre de

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Coût total

€ 3 813 089,76

Contribution de l’UE

€ 3 813 089,76

Coordonné par

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS fournit des liens vers les livrables publics et les publications des projets HORIZON.

Les liens vers les livrables et les publications des projets du 7e PC, ainsi que les liens vers certains types de résultats spécifiques tels que les jeux de données et les logiciels, sont récupérés dynamiquement sur OpenAIRE .

Livrables

Documents, reports (17)

Primary Education outreach documentation

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

Project website online.

Publications

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Auteurs: Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Publié dans: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numéro 5, 2021, Page(s) : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Éditeur: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe

Auteurs: Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Page(s) 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

Auteurs: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Publié dans: WIREs Water, Numéro 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Éditeur: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Auteurs: Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publié dans: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Numéro 77, 2025, Page(s) 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Éditeur: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

Auteurs: Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numéro 7, 2024, Page(s) 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Auteurs: Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 19, 2024, Page(s) 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Auteurs: Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Éditeur: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking?

Auteurs: Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Publié dans: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Numéro 82, 2025, Page(s) 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Auteurs: Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 5, 2024, Page(s) 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Auteurs: B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Publié dans: Earth's Future, Numéro 12, 2024, Page(s) e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Publié dans: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Numéro 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Éditeur: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Auteurs: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Numéro 150, 2025, Page(s) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Éditeur: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Publié dans: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Numéro 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Éditeur: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Auteurs: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Numéro 5, 2024, Page(s) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Éditeur: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Auteurs: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 24, 2024, Page(s) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Auteurs: Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Publié dans: The Lancet Public Health, Numéro 9, 2024, Page(s) e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Éditeur: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic

Auteurs: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves

Auteurs: Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Publié dans: Oxford Open Climate Change, Numéro 5, 2025, Page(s) kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Éditeur: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence

Auteurs: Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro 14, 2025, Page(s) 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

Auteurs: Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Publié dans: Climate Dynamics, Numéro Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Page(s) Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model

Auteurs: Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Publié dans: Earth System Dynamics, Numéro Volume 5, Numéro 4, 2024, Page(s) 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Éditeur: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Auteurs: Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publié dans: Weather and Climate Extremes, Numéro 44, 2024, Page(s) 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Éditeur: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?

Auteurs: Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publié dans: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Numéro 24, 2025, Page(s) 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Éditeur: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Auteurs: Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Publié dans: Journal of Climate, Numéro 37, 2025, Page(s) 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Éditeur: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe

Auteurs: A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 20, 2025, Page(s) 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany

Auteurs: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Publié dans: Environmental Research Letters, Numéro 19, 2023, Page(s) 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Éditeur: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Auteurs: Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Publié dans: The Lancet Planetary Health, Numéro Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Page(s) E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Éditeur: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Auteurs: J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Publié dans: Geophysical Research Letters, Numéro 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Éditeur: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Auteurs: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Publié dans: Physical Review E, Numéro 110, 2024, Page(s) Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Éditeur: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Auteurs: Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Publié dans: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Numéro 155, 2024, Page(s) 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Éditeur: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z