european weather Extremes: DrIvers, Predictability and Impacts

Projektinformationen

EDIPI

ID Finanzhilfevereinbarung: 956396

DOI

10.3030/956396

Projekt abgeschlossen

EK-Unterschriftsdatum 13 August 2020

Startdatum 1 März 2021

Enddatum 28 Februar 2025

Finanziert unter

• EXCELLENT SCIENCE - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Actions

Gesamtkosten

€ 3 813 089,76

EU-Beitrag

€ 3 813 089,76

Koordiniert durch

UPPSALA UNIVERSITET
Sweden

CORDIS bietet Links zu öffentlichen Ergebnissen und Veröffentlichungen von HORIZONT-Projekten.

Links zu Ergebnissen und Veröffentlichungen von RP7-Projekten sowie Links zu einigen Typen spezifischer Ergebnisse wie Datensätzen und Software werden dynamisch von OpenAIRE abgerufen.

Leistungen

Documents, reports (17)

Primary Education outreach documentation

Scientific documentation targeted at classroom use.

WP6 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP6 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP7 The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects

WP 5 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP5 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

EDIPI replication guidelines

Guidelines for replication of the EDIPI framework in other fields.

Research paper II drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP6. The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects.

Key EDIPI results for policy-makers

Report of key EDIPI results for policy-makers.

Research paper II drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremesWP5

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP5. The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet and/or windy extremes addressed in each of the projects.

Frontiers for young minds paper draft

Paper draft for submission to Frontiers for young minds or equivalent outlet. Upon further drafts the PO will be notified to reopen the deliverable.

Pedagogical Material

Pedagogical Material from Network-wide training Publicly Available. Confidential material from private-sector partners will only be disseminated within the consortium. Upon any further update the PO will be notifed to reopen the deliverable.

Material for teacher professional development

Pedagogical material for continuing professional development of teachers.

Research paper II drafts on Evaluating Impacts of weather extremes

Working drafts of the second research papers by the individual ESRs and co-authors participating in WP7. The drafts wil touch the specific extreme event impacts addressed in each of the projects.

WP7 contribution to EDIPI synthesis paper draft

The plan is for the project to result in a synthesis paper, providing a holistic overview of the scientific state of the art on the extreme events studied in EDIPI and on the advances made during the project. We refer to this provisionally as the EDIPI synthesis paper draft on drivers, predictability and impacts of regional weather extremes. All three scientific WPs will contribute to the paper. This deliverable covers the contribution from WP7 to the EDIPI synthesis paper draft.

Research paper I drafts on Enhancing the mechanistic understanding of weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP5 The drafts wil touch the specific physical processes driving surface temperature and wet andor windy extremes addressed in each of the projects

Key EDIPI results for the private sector

Report of key EDIPI results for private-sector practitioners.

Research paper I drafts on Advancing predictive capabilities for weather extremes

Working drafts of the first research papers by the individual ESRs and coauthors participating in WP6 The drafts wil touch the specific predictability advances for extreme events addressed in each of the projects

Drought forecast system documentation

Documentation for the prototype hydro-climatic impacts forecast system.

Websites, patent fillings, videos etc. (1)

Project website

Project website online.

Veröffentlichungen

Peer reviewed articles (31)

Projections of temperature-attributable mortality in Europe: a time series analysis of 147 contiguous regions in 16 countries

Autoren: Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester,
Veröffentlicht in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Ausgabe 5, 2021, Seite(n) : e446–54, ISSN 0140-6736
Herausgeber: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00150-9

Climate change on extreme winds already affects off-shore wind power availability in Europe

Autoren: Lia Rapella, Davide Faranda, Marco Gaetani, Philippe Drobinski, Mireia Ginesta
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, Ausgabe Volume 18, Number 3, 2023, Seite(n) 034040, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbdb2

Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact‐based forecasting of droughts

Autoren: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Veröffentlicht in: WIREs Water, Ausgabe 11, 2024, ISSN 2049-1948
Herausgeber: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1698

Future Changes of European Windstorm Losses in EURO-CORDEX Simulations

Autoren: Inovasita Alifdini, Julia Moemken, Alexandre M. Ramos, Joaquim G. Pinto
Veröffentlicht in: Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Ausgabe 77, 2025, Seite(n) 20-37, ISSN 1600-0870
Herausgeber: Swedish Society for Meteorology and Climatology
DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.4094

Mortality burden attributed to anthropogenic warming during Europe’s 2022 record-breaking summer

Autoren: Thessa M. Beck, Dominik L. Schumacher, Hicham Achebak, Ana M. Vicedo–Cabrera, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Joan Ballester
Veröffentlicht in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Ausgabe 7, 2024, Seite(n) 245, ISSN 2397-3722
Herausgeber: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-024-00783-2

Future changes in spatially compounding hot, wet or dry events and their implications for the world’s breadbasket regions

Autoren: Bianca Biess, Lukas Gudmundsson, Michael G Windisch, Sonia I Seneviratne
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, Ausgabe 19, 2024, Seite(n) 064011, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4619

A methodology for attributing severe extratropical cyclones to climate change based on reanalysis data: the case study of storm Alex 2020

Autoren: Mireia Ginesta, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori, Davide Faranda 
Veröffentlicht in: Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 1432-0894
Herausgeber: Springer
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-022-06565-x

How Does a Dry General Circulation Model Represent Atmospheric Blocking?

Autoren: Vinita Deshmukh, Gwendal Rivière, Sébastien Fromang, Marion Saint-Lu
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Ausgabe 82, 2025, Seite(n) 283-300, ISSN 0022-4928
Herausgeber: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jas-d-24-0048.1

Large-scale perspective on extreme near-surface winds in the central North Atlantic

Autoren: Aleksa Stanković, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto, Rodrigo Caballero
Veröffentlicht in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Ausgabe 5, 2024, Seite(n) 821-837, ISSN 2698-4016
Herausgeber: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-821-2024

A climate-change attribution retrospective of some impactfulweather extremes of 2021

Autoren: Davide Faranda, Stella Bourdin, Mireia Ginesta, Meriem Krouma, Robin Noyelle, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Gabriele Messori
Veröffentlicht in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, 2022, ISSN 2698-4016
Herausgeber: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1311-2022

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

Autoren: B. Biess, L. Gudmundsson, S. I. Seneviratne
Veröffentlicht in: Earth's Future, Ausgabe 12, 2024, Seite(n) e2023EF004114, ISSN 2328-4277
Herausgeber: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
DOI: 10.1029/2023ef004114

Atmospheric circulation compounds anthropogenic warming and impacts of climate extremes in Europe

Autoren: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Aglae Jezequel, Pascal Yiou
Veröffentlicht in: Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., Ausgabe 120 (13), 2023, ISSN 0027-8424
Herausgeber: National Academy of Sciences
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2214525120

Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes

Autoren: Emma Holmberg, Steffen Tietsche, Gabriele Messori
Veröffentlicht in: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Ausgabe 150, 2025, Seite(n) 5518-5534, ISSN 0035-9009
Herausgeber: Royal Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1002/qj.4885

Attributing Venice Acqua Alta events to a changing climate and evaluating the efficacy of MoSE adaptation strategy

Autoren: Davide Faranda, Mireia Ginesta, Tommaso Alberti, Erika Coppola, Marco Anzidei
Veröffentlicht in: npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Ausgabe 6, 2024, ISSN 2397-3722
Herausgeber: Springer Nature
DOI: 10.1038/s41612-023-00513-0

ClimaMeter: contextualizing extreme weather in a changing climate

Autoren: Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Erika Coppola, Tommaso Alberti, Mathieu Vrac, Flavio Pons, Pascal Yiou, Marion Saint Lu, Andreia N. S. Hisi, Patrick Brockmann, Stavros Dafis, Gianmarco Mengaldo, Robert Vautard
Veröffentlicht in: Weather and Climate Dynamics, Ausgabe 5, 2024, Seite(n) 959-983, ISSN 2698-4016
Herausgeber: Copernicus
DOI: 10.5194/wcd-5-959-2024

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Autoren: Anne F. Van Loon, Sarra Kchouk, Alessia Matanó, Faranak Tootoonchi, Camila Alvarez-Garreton, Khalid E. A. Hassaballah, Minchao Wu, Marthe L. K. Wens, Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Elena Ridolfi, Riccardo Biella, Viorica Nagavciuc, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Ana Bastos, Louise Cavalcante, Franciska T. de Vries, Margaret Garcia, Johanna Mård, Ileen N. Streefkerk, Claudia Teutschbein, Roshanak Tootoonchi, Rub
Veröffentlicht in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Ausgabe 24, 2024, Seite(n) 3173-3205, ISSN 1684-9981
Herausgeber: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024

The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action

Autoren: Kim R van Daalen, Cathryn Tonne, Jan C Semenza, Joacim Rocklöv, Anil Markandya, Niheer Dasandi, Slava Jankin, Hicham Achebak, Joan Ballester, Hannah Bechara, Thessa M Beck, Max W Callaghan, Bruno M Carvalho, Jonathan Chambers, Marta Cirah Pradas, Orin Courtenay, Shouro Dasgupta, Matthew J Eckelman, Zia Farooq, Peter Fransson, Elisa Gallo, Olga Gasparyan, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Ian Hamilton, Ris
Veröffentlicht in: The Lancet Public Health, Ausgabe 9, 2024, Seite(n) e495-e522, ISSN 2468-2667
Herausgeber: Elsevier
DOI: 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0

Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic

Autoren: Ferran Lopez-Marti, Mireia Ginesta, Davide Faranda, Anna Rutgersson, Pascal Yiou, Lichuan Wu, Gabriele Messori
Veröffentlicht in: Earth System Dynamics, 2025, ISSN 2190-4987
Herausgeber: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711

Comparing the influence of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and spring soil moisture on European summer heat waves

Autoren: Valeria Mascolo, Clément Le Priol, Fabio D’Andrea, Freddy Bouchet
Veröffentlicht in: Oxford Open Climate Change, Ausgabe 5, 2025, Seite(n) kgae023, ISSN 2634-4068
Herausgeber: Oxford University Press
DOI: 10.1093/oxfclm/kgae023

The link between European warm-temperature extremes and atmospheric persistence

Autoren: Emma Holmberg, Gabriele Messori, Rodrigo Caballero, Davide Faranda
Veröffentlicht in: Earth System Dynamics, Ausgabe 14, 2025, Seite(n) 737-765, ISSN 2190-4987
Herausgeber: Earth System Dynamics
DOI: 10.5194/esd-14-737-2023

Oceanic maintenance of atmospheric blocking in wintertime in the North Atlantic

Autoren: Jamie Mathews, Arnaud Czaja
Veröffentlicht in: Climate Dynamics, Ausgabe Volume 62, published in 2024, 2024, Seite(n) Article ID 07196-0, ISSN 0930-7575
Herausgeber: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-024-07196-0

Variability and Predictability of a reduced-order land atmosphere coupled model

Autoren: Anupama K. Xavier, Jonathan Demaeyer, Stéphane Vannitsem
Veröffentlicht in: Earth System Dynamics, Ausgabe Volume 5, Ausgabe 4, 2024, Seite(n) 893-912, ISSN 2190-4987
Herausgeber: Copernicus GmbH
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2257

Windstorm losses in Europe – What to gain from damage datasets

Autoren: Julia Moemken, Gabriele Messori, Joaquim G. Pinto
Veröffentlicht in: Weather and Climate Extremes, Ausgabe 44, 2024, Seite(n) 100661, ISSN 2212-0947
Herausgeber: Elsevier BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100661

Insurance loss model vs. meteorological loss index – how comparable are their loss estimates for European windstorms?

Autoren: Julia Moemken, Inovasita Alifdini, Alexandre M. Ramos, Alexandros Georgiadis, Aidan Brocklehurst, Lukas Braun, Joaquim G. Pinto
Veröffentlicht in: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Ausgabe 24, 2025, Seite(n) 3445-3460, ISSN 1684-9981
Herausgeber: Copernicus Publications
DOI: 10.5194/nhess-24-3445-2024

Anthropogenic Climate Change Will Intensify European Explosive Storms Analogous to Alex, Eunice, and Xynthia

Autoren: Mireia Ginesta, Emmanouil Flaounas, Pascal Yiou, Davide Faranda
Veröffentlicht in: Journal of Climate, Ausgabe 37, 2025, Seite(n) 5427-5452, ISSN 0894-8755
Herausgeber: American Meteorological Society
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0761.1

How good is my drought index? Evaluating predictability and ability to estimate impacts across Europe

Autoren: A Shyrokaya, F Pappenberger, G Messori, I Pechlivanidis, H Cloke, G Di Baldassarre
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, Ausgabe 20, 2025, Seite(n) 034051, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/adb869

Significant relationships between drought indicators and impacts for the 2018–2019 drought in Germany

Autoren: Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Gabriele Messori, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Florian Pappenberger, Hannah L Cloke, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Veröffentlicht in: Environmental Research Letters, Ausgabe 19, 2023, Seite(n) 014037, ISSN 1748-9326
Herausgeber: Institute of Physics Publishing
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ad10d9

Seasonality reversal of temperature attributable mortality projections due to previously unobserved extreme heat in Europe

Autoren: Marcos Quijal-Zamorano, Èrica Martínez-Solanas, Hicham Achebak, Desislava Petrova, Jean-Marie Robine, François R Herrmann, Xavier Rodó, Joan Ballester
Veröffentlicht in: The Lancet Planetary Health, Ausgabe Vol. 5, 9, 2021, Seite(n) E573-E575, ISSN 0140-6736
Herausgeber: The Lancet Publishing Group
DOI: 10.1016/s2542-5196(21)00211-4

Gulf Stream Moisture Fluxes Impact Atmospheric Blocks Throughout the Northern Hemisphere

Autoren: J. P. Mathews, A. Czaja, F. Vitart, C. Roberts
Veröffentlicht in: Geophysical Research Letters, Ausgabe 51, 2025, ISSN 0094-8276
Herausgeber: American Geophysical Union
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl108826

Statistical physics and dynamical systems perspectives on geophysical extreme events

Autoren: D. Faranda, G. Messori, T. Alberti, C. Alvarez-Castro, T. Caby, L. Cavicchia, E. Coppola, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, V. M. Galfi, E. Holmberg, V. Lembo, R. Noyelle, P. Yiou, B. Spagnolo, D. Valenti, S. Vaienti, C. Wormell
Veröffentlicht in: Physical Review E, Ausgabe 110, 2024, Seite(n) Article ID 041001, ISSN 2470-0045
Herausgeber: American Physical Society (APS)
DOI: 10.1103/physreve.110.041001

A comparison of climate drivers’ impacts on silage maize yield shock in Germany

Autoren: Federico Stainoh, Julia Moemken, Celia M. Gouveia, Joaquim G. Pinto
Veröffentlicht in: Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Ausgabe 155, 2024, Seite(n) 9197-9209, ISSN 0177-798X
Herausgeber: Springer Verlag
DOI: 10.1007/s00704-024-05179-z