Applying game theory to food security-biodiversity conflicts
Food security means that all people, at all times, have access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food. Various stress factors – such as climate change, population growth and rising food prices – can all play a part in threatening food security. Biodiversity underpins food security but increasingly conflicts have arisen when actions that prioritise biodiversity conservation appear to be to the detriment of local food security. Demands to protect certain bird and mammal species and habitats, for example, can constrain the life of farmers. “Such conflicts are increasing in scale and intensity, and have been shown to be damaging for both biodiversity and human livelihoods,” says ConFooBio project coordinator Nils Bunnefeld from the University of Stirling in the United Kingdom. “Uncertainties created by climate change have decreased food security and put further pressure on biodiversity, thus further exacerbating such conflicts.”
From game theory to computer games
ConFooBio, which was supported by the European Research Council, sought to develop new approaches to address such situations. The ultimate goal was to encourage collaboration and understanding between all parties concerned. The project began by characterising and analysing seven real-world conservation conflicts. Farming conflicts included various bird species such as pink-footed geese in Denmark, greylag geese in Scotland and common cranes in Sweden. Tensions between elephants and crop raiding in Gabon were also examined. Long-term data sets were used. These showed that conflicts increase and decrease over time, and that evidence-based decision-making can make a big difference for mitigating these conflicts. The project team next integrated game theory and social-ecological modelling, to devise new ways of mitigating such conservation conflicts. Over 300 game workshops involving more than 900 stakeholders were carried out in Gabon, Kenya, Madagascar, Scotland and Tanzania. The aim was to evaluate the impacts of different conflict interventions, such as subsidies and compensation payments, on decision-making. “Our games with stakeholders showed that underlying issues of trust and equity are important when understanding and mitigating conflicts,” explains Bunnefeld. “Computer games were shown to be effective for understanding conflicts and engaging under-represented stakeholders in research and conflict mitigation.”
Resolving conflict situations
The bottom line is that conflicts between stakeholders focused on improving food security and those focused on biodiversity conservation will continue to flare, as climate change uncertainties and demand for food resources increase. The utility of this project is that it has forged a new path towards managing such conflicts, from the level of farmers right up to international climate negotiations. All data and tools developed by the project are now freely available online. A novel modelling framework that predicts conflict management outcomes for example has already been downloaded over 28 000 times. In addition, a tablet computer game, where users make decisions about wildlife populations that damage their agricultural crops, was developed specifically with illiterate participants in mind. The aim here is to help give voice to under-represented and marginalised stakeholders such as farmers.
Conservation conflicts
Analytical research also came up with a number of interesting findings. For example, long-term analysis of conservation conflicts involving geese and cranes in northern Europe demonstrated a time lag of 1 to 3 years in managing population numbers. “This highlights the need for more adaptive and timely population management responses, so as not to increase social conflicts and jeopardise the status of wildlife populations and local livelihoods,” says Bunnefeld.
Keywords
ConFooBio, biodiversity, food, game theory, nutritious, habitats, conservation
