Assessing the drivers and barriers of the organic transition
Progress in organic farming and aquaculture is one of the goals set out under the European Green Deal(opens in new window), aiming to achieve 25 % of the EU’s agricultural land under organic farming by 2030, and a significant increase in organic aquaculture. “Achieving these ambitious goals requires a systemic transformation, a balanced upscaling of both production and consumption, with a huge transformation in farm structures and value chains,” explains Ambra De Simone(opens in new window), R&I associate manager at IFOAM Organics Europe(opens in new window), the project host. “We need ambitious research and innovation, strong advisory services, and extensive knowledge exchange and training across the organic value chain.” Farmers face technical, economic and regulatory barriers, and need supportive policies, stable markets and accessible knowledge to convert to or remain organic. “We need to encourage farmers to convert to organic farming and create viable opportunities for attracting new generations and entrants in the sector,” says De Simone, OrganicTargets4EU(opens in new window) project coordinator. In the OrganicTargets4EU project, researchers and stakeholders formed plausible future scenarios of how 2040 could look if the targets were achieved by 2030, to find the most promising areas for investment and support.
Developing foresight scenarios
The project began with an extensive literature review to identify the driving forces for organic farming development. Stakeholders and experts then took part in EU-level workshops to develop storylines for two policy-driven scenarios and two demand-driven scenarios, as well as equivalent scenarios for organic aquaculture. The team then analysed the socio-economic impacts of the various scenarios, exploring key factors, including promising targets for organic farmland expansion, market impacts and mechanisms behind demand. Further work explored how to achieve the target.
Organic farmland targets
The project results suggest that on current trends, the 25 % organic farmland target by 2030 is unlikely to be achieved and 16-18 % is more realistic. “We need both aspirational and realistic targets,” says De Simone. “The 25 % target holds a crucial motivational value motivating Member States to boost policy support, while realistic targets help align resources and measure progress,” she adds. This is reflected in CAP Strategic Plans(opens in new window) and the fact that, for the first time, all EU countries provided support for organic farming and set targets for the organic land area by 2027 or 2030, she notes. Progress will depend on supply chain development, policy support and ambition, market health and innovation, and access to knowledge. OrganicTargets4EU delivered a comprehensive analysis of the factors driving organic farming and organic aquaculture growth across Europe, including 29 country fact sheets(opens in new window), socio-economic assessment and multi-actor policy dialogue identifying key gaps and opportunities relating to the organic target.
Towards a sustainable food system
“In contrast to ‘normal’ innovation, organic farming relies on a highly complex multi-level knowledge system,” notes De Simone. “In addition to formal advisory and training systems and organic farming institutions, informal networks and peer groups are key.” Due to complete at the end of February 2026, OrganicTargets4EU aims to deliver comprehensive policy recommendations on key areas in the organic sector, based on the perspectives of farmers, advisors, business, research and policy actors.
