Descrizione del progetto
Una nuova serie di strumenti per la modellizzazione comportamentale su larga scala
Servono modelli comportamentali umani efficaci volti a prevedere i problemi e a progettare soluzioni più sane, più sicure e più sostenibili. Oggi, le nuove tecnologie offrono migliori informazioni basate sui dati; tuttavia, per ottenere modelli matematici realistici applicabili al mondo reale, è necessario riconoscere la piena complessità del processo decisionale umano. Il progetto SYNERGY, finanziato dall’UE, creerà nuovi modelli coerenti a livello psicologico che si riferiscono a problemi reali, offrendo un equilibrio tra presupposti e informazioni basate sui dati. A tal fine, il progetto integrerà tre paradigmi di metodi fondamentali: psicologico (chiarire le modalità del processo decisionale), econometrico e comportamentale (comprendere ciò che influisce sui processi decisionali), e basato sull’apprendimento automatico (incentrato su risultati specifici). Tali paradigmi possono contribuire a cogliere gli spostamenti e altri comportamenti durante una pandemia.
Obiettivo
The SYNERGY project will unify three key paradigms for the mathematical modelling of human behaviour, namely: i) process models in psychology and cognate disciplines that seek to explain how decisions are made; ii) econometric and behavioural models that explain which factors influence the decision process and to what extent; and iii) data-driven (machine learning) methods that focus on the outcome of the decision process. The different aims and assumptions of these paradigms have resulted in very distinct strengths and weaknesses for each discipline. Only the synergy of the three will fulfil the promise of producing models that are behaviourally consistent, applicable to real-world problems, computationally tractable, and balance a priori assumptions with data-driven insights.
Integrating the three approaches into new Data-Driven Behavioural Models (DDBMs) is a novel, ambitious and highly complex undertaking, but one that is timely given the rapidly changing world, increasing use of models and big data for prediction, and growing interaction between humans and “intelligent machines” that require the latter to accurately predict human behaviour to enable safe and efficient use of AI. The proposed work will result in a paradigm shift for behavioural modelling, with impact in many application domains. SYNERGY will provide analysts with a powerful new toolkit that will allow efficient large-scale behavioural modelling on increasingly rich data while providing interpretable outputs and retaining important foundations in behavioural science.
Alongside major methodological contributions, the proposed research includes large-scale empirical work, applying the new DDBMs to real-world problems with implications for national policy. This includes case studies to understand and predict travel and other behaviour in a COVID-19 environment, and to establish the benefits that more behaviourally consistent AI routines for autonomous vehicles can have for road traffic safety.
Campo scientifico
Parole chiave
Programma(i)
Argomento(i)
Meccanismo di finanziamento
ERC-ADG - Advanced GrantIstituzione ospitante
LS2 9JT Leeds
Regno Unito