Periodic Reporting for period 4 - CRIMETIME (Crime and Time: How short-term mindsets encourage crime and how the future self can prevent it)
Berichtszeitraum: 2023-01-01 bis 2024-03-31
Why are some people more likely to commit crime than others? Answers to this question, which is at the heart of criminology, can be grouped into two broad views. On the one hand, dispositional perspectives argue that stable factors within the individual, such as low self-control or a lack of integrity, lie at the roots of criminal conduct. Sociogenic perspectives, on the other hand, put the locus of study outside the individual and point towards factors such as rough neighborhoods, parental unemployment, and deviant peers, as the main causes of crime. In spite of ample empirical support for both views, there has been relatively little constructive engagement with each other.
Criminological theorizing is showing a trend towards more integrative approaches. This project takes the next step and aims to show that dispositional and sociogenic perspectives are not just compatible but in fact symbiotic: they have a common point of convergence and each offers something the other needs. Dispositional perspectives have demonstrated the importance of shortsightedness in the explanation of crime but have not fully incorporated the extent to which it is also influenced by social environments, events, and specific experiences. Sociogenic views, in contrast, have not entertained the possibility that such factors may influence crime precisely because they encourage short-term mindsets. This project develops a new perspective on criminal behavior –Short-term Mindsets Theory (STMT)– that integrates both views. This theory is tested using a combination of longitudinal research and behavioral field experiments.
Besides aiming connect the dispositional and the sociogenic perspective and providing the foundation for a common paradigm, the research project goes a step further by using STMT as the basis for a behavioral intervention to reduce crime. We use virtual reality (VR) technology in combination with a smartphone application to instill a future-oriented mindset in offenders. Using these technologies we create avatars, i.e. digital age-progressed representations of research participants, and let them interact with this future self. This combination of novel theory and innovative methodology may lead not only to a breakthrough in our understanding of delinquency but can also provide a blueprint for a scalable and evidence-based intervention to reduce it.
Conclusions: The research results support the assumptions of the project, both in terms of the proposed theory, as well as in developing a behavioral intervention to increase future-orientation. The intervention has been iterated throughout the project and is currently serving as the basis for new research on delinquent behavior and negative behavior as well as mental health problems, such as suicidal ideation and depression.
Criminological theorizing is showing a trend towards more integrative approaches. This project takes the next step and aims to show that dispositional and sociogenic perspectives are not just compatible but in fact symbiotic: they have a common point of convergence and each offers something the other needs. Dispositional perspectives have demonstrated the importance of shortsightedness in the explanation of crime but have not fully incorporated the extent to which it is also influenced by social environments, events, and specific experiences. Sociogenic views, in contrast, have not entertained the possibility that such factors may influence crime precisely because they encourage short-term mindsets. This project develops a new perspective on criminal behavior –Short-term Mindsets Theory (STMT)– that integrates both views. This theory is tested using a combination of longitudinal research and behavioral field experiments.
Besides aiming connect the dispositional and the sociogenic perspective and providing the foundation for a common paradigm, the research project goes a step further by using STMT as the basis for a behavioral intervention to reduce crime. We use virtual reality (VR) technology in combination with a smartphone application to instill a future-oriented mindset in offenders. Using these technologies we create avatars, i.e. digital age-progressed representations of research participants, and let them interact with this future self. This combination of novel theory and innovative methodology may lead not only to a breakthrough in our understanding of delinquency but can also provide a blueprint for a scalable and evidence-based intervention to reduce it.
Conclusions: The research results support the assumptions of the project, both in terms of the proposed theory, as well as in developing a behavioral intervention to increase future-orientation. The intervention has been iterated throughout the project and is currently serving as the basis for new research on delinquent behavior and negative behavior as well as mental health problems, such as suicidal ideation and depression.
The main results obtained in Work Packages 1 and 2 which regard testing STMT, provide support the theory. In a first paper (Van Gelder, Averdijk, Ribeaud & Eisner, 2019), we questioned the commonly assumed view of a fixed causal ordering between self-control (i.e. short-term mindsets), delinquency, and sanctions, and test and find support for the hypothesis that experiencing sanctions may reduce self-control, thereby increasing the risk of future delinquent behavior. In another paper (Defoe et al., 2024), we provide evidence of the fluctuating nature of short-term mindsets during adolescence. We show that short-term mindsets and delinquency ‘travel together’ in the sense that increases in short-term mindsets predict higher levels of delinquency and, vice versa, that reductions in short-term mindsets predict reduced delinquency. In a another paper using the same dataset (Defoe et al., 2021), we investigated the co-development of friend delinquency and adolescent delinquency, as well as the co-development of friend delinquency and short-term mindsets. This study finds that higher initial levels of friend delinquency are associated with higher initial levels of indicators of short-term mindsets, but does not demonstrate co-development between delinquency of peers and short-term mindsets. A paper by Deitzer and others (2024a), found support for the prediction that harsh and unpredictable environments lead to unpredictability schemas resulting in short-term mindsets, which lead to crime. In another paper, (Kübel et al., 2023), the well-established victim-offender overlap is explained through short-term mindsets. In a follow-up paper (Kübel et al., 2024), we show that adolescents who regularly spend time with peers in situations of unstructured unsupervised socializing demonstrate increased short-term mindsets over time with concomitant effects on crime. Taken together, our empirical research provides strong support for the theorized mechanisms.
Work Packages 3 and 4 involve the use of virtual reality (VR) and smartphone technology. A series of articles on the use of VR in criminal justice and crime research have been published by postdoc Cornet and the PI (Cornet & Van Gelder, 2020a, 2020b, 2023; Van Gelder, 2023; Van Gelder & Thielmann, 2023). Furthermore, experimental tests of the FutureU behavioral smartphone and virtual reality intervention have also been published in a series of articles by the research team (e.g. Ganschow, et al. 2021; Van Gelder et al., 2022; Mertens et al., 2023, 2024). In addition, PhD-student Siezenga published a review paper on the state-of-the-art of VR and apps in the forensic domain to explore the shared and unique possibilities for risk assessment, offender rehabilitation,
and reintegration, and an empirical paper disentangling engagement and usage in smartphone use.
Overview of results: In a series of empirical research articles, we have been able to show how short-term mindsets, the key ingredient of STMT, change as a function of exposure to criminogenic environments and experiences. The theory was further developed in a conceptual article (Van Gelder & Frankenhuis, 2024) that aims to provide the foundation of an integrative paradigm for the field of criminology. In conjunction, this work should contribute to a change in our understanding of criminal behavior and the critical role that short-term mindsets play in it. Additionally, two novel behavioral interventions were developed and published on. This work has been instrumental in providing the basis for the use of virtual reality and smartphone apps in criminological and forensic science. Aside from publications in scientific and popular outlets, dissemination occurred in interviews with, and features in, national and international media outlets and podcasts on the project. All in all, the ERC project has substantially advanced the understanding of immersive methods and smartphone applications in the study of crime and rehabilitation, and it also broke ground in developing novel theory.
Work Packages 3 and 4 involve the use of virtual reality (VR) and smartphone technology. A series of articles on the use of VR in criminal justice and crime research have been published by postdoc Cornet and the PI (Cornet & Van Gelder, 2020a, 2020b, 2023; Van Gelder, 2023; Van Gelder & Thielmann, 2023). Furthermore, experimental tests of the FutureU behavioral smartphone and virtual reality intervention have also been published in a series of articles by the research team (e.g. Ganschow, et al. 2021; Van Gelder et al., 2022; Mertens et al., 2023, 2024). In addition, PhD-student Siezenga published a review paper on the state-of-the-art of VR and apps in the forensic domain to explore the shared and unique possibilities for risk assessment, offender rehabilitation,
and reintegration, and an empirical paper disentangling engagement and usage in smartphone use.
Overview of results: In a series of empirical research articles, we have been able to show how short-term mindsets, the key ingredient of STMT, change as a function of exposure to criminogenic environments and experiences. The theory was further developed in a conceptual article (Van Gelder & Frankenhuis, 2024) that aims to provide the foundation of an integrative paradigm for the field of criminology. In conjunction, this work should contribute to a change in our understanding of criminal behavior and the critical role that short-term mindsets play in it. Additionally, two novel behavioral interventions were developed and published on. This work has been instrumental in providing the basis for the use of virtual reality and smartphone apps in criminological and forensic science. Aside from publications in scientific and popular outlets, dissemination occurred in interviews with, and features in, national and international media outlets and podcasts on the project. All in all, the ERC project has substantially advanced the understanding of immersive methods and smartphone applications in the study of crime and rehabilitation, and it also broke ground in developing novel theory.
Our team is busy with developing and testing additional theoretical questions related to TFT and addressing the objectives defined in the proposal. We anticipate to advance the state of the art in multiple ways, especially in terms of further addressing the development of short-term mindsets and how it relates to (the development of) other correlates of crime groups. On the VR and smartphone we are setting a new standard in criminological research.