The main results obtained in Work Packages 1 and 2 which regard testing STMT, provide support the theory. In a first paper (Van Gelder, Averdijk, Ribeaud & Eisner, 2019), we questioned the commonly assumed view of a fixed causal ordering between self-control (i.e. short-term mindsets), delinquency, and sanctions, and test and find support for the hypothesis that experiencing sanctions may reduce self-control, thereby increasing the risk of future delinquent behavior. In another paper (Defoe et al., 2024), we provide evidence of the fluctuating nature of short-term mindsets during adolescence. We show that short-term mindsets and delinquency ‘travel together’ in the sense that increases in short-term mindsets predict higher levels of delinquency and, vice versa, that reductions in short-term mindsets predict reduced delinquency. In a another paper using the same dataset (Defoe et al., 2021), we investigated the co-development of friend delinquency and adolescent delinquency, as well as the co-development of friend delinquency and short-term mindsets. This study finds that higher initial levels of friend delinquency are associated with higher initial levels of indicators of short-term mindsets, but does not demonstrate co-development between delinquency of peers and short-term mindsets. A paper by Deitzer and others (2024a), found support for the prediction that harsh and unpredictable environments lead to unpredictability schemas resulting in short-term mindsets, which lead to crime. In another paper, (Kübel et al., 2023), the well-established victim-offender overlap is explained through short-term mindsets. In a follow-up paper (Kübel et al., 2024), we show that adolescents who regularly spend time with peers in situations of unstructured unsupervised socializing demonstrate increased short-term mindsets over time with concomitant effects on crime. Taken together, our empirical research provides strong support for the theorized mechanisms.
Work Packages 3 and 4 involve the use of virtual reality (VR) and smartphone technology. A series of articles on the use of VR in criminal justice and crime research have been published by postdoc Cornet and the PI (Cornet & Van Gelder, 2020a, 2020b, 2023; Van Gelder, 2023; Van Gelder & Thielmann, 2023). Furthermore, experimental tests of the FutureU behavioral smartphone and virtual reality intervention have also been published in a series of articles by the research team (e.g. Ganschow, et al. 2021; Van Gelder et al., 2022; Mertens et al., 2023, 2024). In addition, PhD-student Siezenga published a review paper on the state-of-the-art of VR and apps in the forensic domain to explore the shared and unique possibilities for risk assessment, offender rehabilitation,
and reintegration, and an empirical paper disentangling engagement and usage in smartphone use.
Overview of results: In a series of empirical research articles, we have been able to show how short-term mindsets, the key ingredient of STMT, change as a function of exposure to criminogenic environments and experiences. The theory was further developed in a conceptual article (Van Gelder & Frankenhuis, 2024) that aims to provide the foundation of an integrative paradigm for the field of criminology. In conjunction, this work should contribute to a change in our understanding of criminal behavior and the critical role that short-term mindsets play in it. Additionally, two novel behavioral interventions were developed and published on. This work has been instrumental in providing the basis for the use of virtual reality and smartphone apps in criminological and forensic science. Aside from publications in scientific and popular outlets, dissemination occurred in interviews with, and features in, national and international media outlets and podcasts on the project. All in all, the ERC project has substantially advanced the understanding of immersive methods and smartphone applications in the study of crime and rehabilitation, and it also broke ground in developing novel theory.
