Periodic Reporting for period 2 - EpiPose (Epidemic intelligence to minimize 2019-nCoV’s public health, economic and social impact in Europe)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2021-03-13 do 2022-03-12
EpiPose aims to:
* collect and share epidemiological data of COVID-19 as widely as possible (O1)
* provide country-specific estimates of key epidemiological parameters (O2)
* model the expected impact of COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality (O3)
* monitor awareness and behavioural change during the COVID-19 epidemic (O4)
* provide health economic analyses for interventions within the EU (O5)
* foster the interaction between the scientific community, public health agencies and the public (O6)
* collect and share epidemiological data of COVID-19 as widely as possible (O1)
* provide country-specific estimates of key epidemiological parameters (O2)
* model the expected impact of COVID-19 on morbidity and mortality (O3)
* monitor awareness and behavioural change during the COVID-19 epidemic (O4)
* provide health economic analyses for interventions within the EU (O5)
* foster the interaction between the scientific community, public health agencies and the public (O6)
O1: We gained access to disaggregated data on COVID-19 incidence, hospital admissions, contact tracing etc. and to (sero-)surveillance. Whenever possible, data was shared as open data or as part of data visualization dashboards .
O2: We generated >20 publications on estimates of key epidemiological parameters (incubation/generation time, basic reproduction number, proportion of pre-symptomatic infections, IFR, hospital capacity, mortality) and on robust methods to deal with various sources of error/bias. Real-time estimates of Re have been made available via online dashboards.
O3: We assessed excess mortality using a linear mixed model that forecasts subject-specific mortality using historical data from BE and NL and investigated the relation between COVID-19 mortality, excess death rates, number of deaths per million and IFR in BE (see Verbeeck et al.,2021 & Molenberghs et al., 2021)
O4: We set up realtime health care pressure evaluation methods and tools, https://www.covid-hcpressure.org/home/ which is regularly updated for European countries. We have incorporated QoL measurements in citizen science initiatives: the Great Corona Study, https://www.uantwerpen.be/nl/projecten/coronastudie/ and in Infectieradar, https://infectieradar.be/. Mathematical models were developed to evaluate the effect of different scenarios of control & relaxation strategies on hospital and ICU burden. O4 counts several publications, online tools and platforms, and technical reports for policy advice.
O5: We a) collected social contact and risk perception data through the CoMix survey in >20 countries, yielding several publications. Comix reports were used directly for policy advice in several countries. b) analysed the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response. c) gained access to data from the Great Corona Survey. Output: 7 publications, (bi)weekly CoMix reports, open access CoMix data, technical reports for policy advice.
O6: We worked on the impact of NPIs (teleworking, school closure, social distancing, restricted social contacts (‘bubbles’), travel restrictions) and of testing policies, antivirals, and different vaccination strategies on mitigating local epidemics using mathematical and statistical models and CoMix data. Output 19 publications, technical reports in support of policy advice.
O7: We populated a database of macroeconomic parameters of 27 EU countries that can be used as inputs for CGE models and have applied the CGE model to UK data. Output: database and paper by Keogh-Brown et al.)
O8: We performed an economic analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in the UK (Sandman et al., preprint) and collaborated with other consortia to investigate affordability, funding and pricing of COVID-19 vaccines in the context of global accessibility (Wouters et al., Lancet 2021).
O9: We made results rapidly available to the scientific and public health communities. We fostered collaboration with many scientific partners and participated in advisory bodies and public health networks. Several initiatives were taken
to foster engagement with the wider public.
O2: We generated >20 publications on estimates of key epidemiological parameters (incubation/generation time, basic reproduction number, proportion of pre-symptomatic infections, IFR, hospital capacity, mortality) and on robust methods to deal with various sources of error/bias. Real-time estimates of Re have been made available via online dashboards.
O3: We assessed excess mortality using a linear mixed model that forecasts subject-specific mortality using historical data from BE and NL and investigated the relation between COVID-19 mortality, excess death rates, number of deaths per million and IFR in BE (see Verbeeck et al.,2021 & Molenberghs et al., 2021)
O4: We set up realtime health care pressure evaluation methods and tools, https://www.covid-hcpressure.org/home/ which is regularly updated for European countries. We have incorporated QoL measurements in citizen science initiatives: the Great Corona Study, https://www.uantwerpen.be/nl/projecten/coronastudie/ and in Infectieradar, https://infectieradar.be/. Mathematical models were developed to evaluate the effect of different scenarios of control & relaxation strategies on hospital and ICU burden. O4 counts several publications, online tools and platforms, and technical reports for policy advice.
O5: We a) collected social contact and risk perception data through the CoMix survey in >20 countries, yielding several publications. Comix reports were used directly for policy advice in several countries. b) analysed the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response. c) gained access to data from the Great Corona Survey. Output: 7 publications, (bi)weekly CoMix reports, open access CoMix data, technical reports for policy advice.
O6: We worked on the impact of NPIs (teleworking, school closure, social distancing, restricted social contacts (‘bubbles’), travel restrictions) and of testing policies, antivirals, and different vaccination strategies on mitigating local epidemics using mathematical and statistical models and CoMix data. Output 19 publications, technical reports in support of policy advice.
O7: We populated a database of macroeconomic parameters of 27 EU countries that can be used as inputs for CGE models and have applied the CGE model to UK data. Output: database and paper by Keogh-Brown et al.)
O8: We performed an economic analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in the UK (Sandman et al., preprint) and collaborated with other consortia to investigate affordability, funding and pricing of COVID-19 vaccines in the context of global accessibility (Wouters et al., Lancet 2021).
O9: We made results rapidly available to the scientific and public health communities. We fostered collaboration with many scientific partners and participated in advisory bodies and public health networks. Several initiatives were taken
to foster engagement with the wider public.
WP1 Clinical data
We shared aggregated clinical data with the wider public, provided input on dashboards and reports of country-specific governmental institutions. The extent to which can be considered as beyond the state of the art. Focus now is on disclosing more data and providing advice to collect better data for future challenges.
WP2 Epidemiological parameters
We developed innovative techniques to infer key epidemiological variables (e.g. incubation time and generation interval), to determine the replacement of old Delta variant by the new Omicron variant and to estimate the increased transmissibility or immune evasion of new SARS-CoV-2 vocs.
WP3 Intervention strategies
The models developed within WP3 were used to track epidemic progress within countries and project the impact of different interventions in the short-term (in real-time) and long-term. The pace and intensity of this work is being conducted in a manner not seen before and which required innovations in methodology. This far exceeded our expectations at the outset of the project.
We have published extensively on the impact of entry screening, travel restrictions, school & workplace closures, vaccination, antivirals, testing and tracing and household-bubbles. We will continue to examine the impact of various interventions in response to policy needs.
WP4 Social and behavioural understandings
The CoMix survey has expanded significantly beyond the original scope of the project. Running in 20 countries across Europe, it is the largest of its kind. The first prototype of the new Influenzanet participatory surveillance platform - Infectieradar - has been developed and deployed in Belgium, Netherlands and Italy.
We will continue to a) collect, analyse and share CoMix data, including a multi-country comparison analysis; b) analyze the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response; c) analyse data collected through infectieradar and Influweb.
WP5 Health Economics
Our public information and data capture system and the database we have populated with macroeconomic parameters are both broad in scope, including 27 EU countries. The application of a CGE model and incorporation of economic analyses in complex dynamic transmission models combining behavioural change, NPIs and pharmaceutical interventions within months after these are trialled exceed also the state of the art in health economics. We continue to monitor and analyse health care capacity impacts, quality of life and mental health data, perform effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions with QALYs as outcome, and conduct macroeconomic impact analyses for EU countries.
The optimal health care base capacity also remains a key point of interest for pandemic preparedness.
WP6 "Dissemination and policy making"
We will continue to produce high-quality scientific publications and open-source code, making both widely and rapidly available to the scientific and wider community. We will continue to advise national and international policymakers and public health agencies on the evolving COVID-19 situation. We will produce more lay summaries of key publications which will be shared, on the project’s website and across social media channels. We will continue to collaborate with other EC-funded research consortia and epidemiological experts in the production of informative and accessible media content.
Impact: The impact of EpiPose outputs exceeds our expectations. Most of the developed tools and models have been made operational and are actively being used for decision making. There is active outreach to the wider society through engaging multimedia content, active social media channels, high-level policy reports and press briefings, media coverage and open-source code.
We shared aggregated clinical data with the wider public, provided input on dashboards and reports of country-specific governmental institutions. The extent to which can be considered as beyond the state of the art. Focus now is on disclosing more data and providing advice to collect better data for future challenges.
WP2 Epidemiological parameters
We developed innovative techniques to infer key epidemiological variables (e.g. incubation time and generation interval), to determine the replacement of old Delta variant by the new Omicron variant and to estimate the increased transmissibility or immune evasion of new SARS-CoV-2 vocs.
WP3 Intervention strategies
The models developed within WP3 were used to track epidemic progress within countries and project the impact of different interventions in the short-term (in real-time) and long-term. The pace and intensity of this work is being conducted in a manner not seen before and which required innovations in methodology. This far exceeded our expectations at the outset of the project.
We have published extensively on the impact of entry screening, travel restrictions, school & workplace closures, vaccination, antivirals, testing and tracing and household-bubbles. We will continue to examine the impact of various interventions in response to policy needs.
WP4 Social and behavioural understandings
The CoMix survey has expanded significantly beyond the original scope of the project. Running in 20 countries across Europe, it is the largest of its kind. The first prototype of the new Influenzanet participatory surveillance platform - Infectieradar - has been developed and deployed in Belgium, Netherlands and Italy.
We will continue to a) collect, analyse and share CoMix data, including a multi-country comparison analysis; b) analyze the relationship between media coverage, epidemic progression, and users’ collective web-based response; c) analyse data collected through infectieradar and Influweb.
WP5 Health Economics
Our public information and data capture system and the database we have populated with macroeconomic parameters are both broad in scope, including 27 EU countries. The application of a CGE model and incorporation of economic analyses in complex dynamic transmission models combining behavioural change, NPIs and pharmaceutical interventions within months after these are trialled exceed also the state of the art in health economics. We continue to monitor and analyse health care capacity impacts, quality of life and mental health data, perform effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions with QALYs as outcome, and conduct macroeconomic impact analyses for EU countries.
The optimal health care base capacity also remains a key point of interest for pandemic preparedness.
WP6 "Dissemination and policy making"
We will continue to produce high-quality scientific publications and open-source code, making both widely and rapidly available to the scientific and wider community. We will continue to advise national and international policymakers and public health agencies on the evolving COVID-19 situation. We will produce more lay summaries of key publications which will be shared, on the project’s website and across social media channels. We will continue to collaborate with other EC-funded research consortia and epidemiological experts in the production of informative and accessible media content.
Impact: The impact of EpiPose outputs exceeds our expectations. Most of the developed tools and models have been made operational and are actively being used for decision making. There is active outreach to the wider society through engaging multimedia content, active social media channels, high-level policy reports and press briefings, media coverage and open-source code.