Descrizione del progetto
Modelli migliori basati su agenti per le malattie trasmesse dalle zanzare
Le malattie trasmesse dalle zanzare colpiscono ogni anno milioni di persone in tutto il mondo. Nonostante i progressi nei modelli computazionali, i modelli basati su agenti sono ancora spesso surclassati nella previsione delle malattie dalle loro controparti matematiche ideali. Finanziato dal programma di azioni Marie Skłodowska-Curie, il progetto SpatialStructure sfrutterà i processi gaussiani quale potente quadro statistico per aumentare significativamente la sensibilità dei modelli basati su agenti e valutare accuratamente diversi parametri del modello. La ricerca proposta potrebbe approfondire la nostra comprensione di come le strutture spaziali influenzino le dinamiche ospite-patogeno, migliorando così la previsione delle malattie e la valutazione delle strategie di intervento proposte.
Obiettivo
Computational advancements and the development of powerful agent-based simulation frameworks have allowed us to model unprecedented realism in mosquito-transmitted diseases – a threat that millions of people face every year. While this enhanced realism has already provided important insights, agent-based models are still often outperformed in disease forecasting by their idealized mathematical counterparts. This might be caused by a lack in our fundamental understanding of how spatial dynamics need to be appropriately modeled. To date, in depth sensitivity analyses of complex agent-based models that would help to address this issue are hardly conducted, because these complex models are very parameter rich. Thus, the required model recalibration and comparisons are very runtime intensive. I introduce Gaussian processes as a powerful statistical framework that will significantly advance sensitivity analysis for agent-based models and allow us to assess the relative input importance of different model parameters in unprecedented detail. The proposed research could further deepen our understanding of how spatial structure affects host-pathogen dynamics and be a valuable contribution to the field of sensitivity analysis for agent-based models. I expect to find that spatial structure changes disease transmission potential profoundly and can cause spatial-specific model dynamics. I hope that my findings contribute to the improvement of disease forecasting and evaluation of proposed intervention strategies.
Campo scientifico
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Meccanismo di finanziamento
MSCA-IF - Marie Skłodowska-Curie Individual Fellowships (IF)Coordinatore
1010 Wien
Austria