This project has resulted in three different papers.
Two of these working papers are set in historical Amsterdam. For these, I have built large, linked databases of wealth and demographics (births, marriages, and deaths) of individuals in historical Amsterdam, as well as information on real estate ownership at several points in time and housing transactions. Upon publication of the respective papers, these datasets will also be made publicly available.
In the first paper, I examine how demographic changes affect house prices. Using centuries of data from Amsterdam, I show that birth rates today predict significant increases in house prices relative to rents 25-30 years later, followed by decreases 60-64 years later. By analyzing housing transactions and wealth data, I demonstrate that this phenomenon is linked to age-dependent entry into and exit from homeownership.
In the second paper, I investigate how shocks to housing wealth arising from property taxes impact household finances in the long run. This study focuses on a 1732 reform of the real estate tax in Holland, which caused individuals to unexpectedly lose or gain wealth due to changes in their tax liabilities. The findings reveal that such shocks can have profound effects because households tend not to move even when faced with significantly higher or lower taxes. As a result, the tax changes primarily influence savings, leading to a compounding wealth effect of tax reforms over time. This suggests that property tax reforms, which are often subjects of intense public debate, have far more substantial effects on households than previously understood. Both historical papers have been presented at leading academic conferences and in seminars.
The third working paper moves beyond the historical context and focuses on the impact of real estate investors on housing costs and neighborhood composition in the present day. In this study, my co-authors and I examine the effects of a ban on real estate investors and find that it did not significantly affect house values. However, we show that banning buy-to-let investors leads to higher entry of higher-income households into neighborhoods, as owner-occupiers generally have higher incomes than tenants in similar properties. This suggests that investors play a significant role in altering the residential composition of neighborhoods, rather than directly influencing house prices. This paper generated significant media coverage both nationally and internationally and has been widely presented in seminars, conferences, and to policymakers.
