Periodic Reporting for period 2 - I-CISK (Innovating Climate services through Integrating Scientific and local Knowledge)
Okres sprawozdawczy: 2023-05-01 do 2024-10-31
Climate Services (CS) are crucial in empowering citizens, stakeholders and decision-makers in adaptation to climate extremes and climate change. Current CS, however, often fail to achieve their full value-proposition to end-users. Challenges include incorporation of social and behavioural factors, local needs, knowledges and customs of end-users. In addressing these challenges, the ambition of this project is to innovate how climate information is used, interpreted and acted on by users, through a next-generation of Climate Services that are co-created with users and follow a human centred, social and behaviourally informed approach. To ensure CS are credible, salient and legitimate, the approach recognises the importance of integrating the local knowledges, needs and perceptions of the users from across sectors and governance levels.
The main objective of the I-CISK project is to develop next-generation CS that follow a social and behaviourally informed approach and that meet the climate information needs of citizens, decision makers and stakeholders at the spatial and temporal scale relevant to them. Six specific objectives have been defined:
(i) Develop a framework for co-creating next-generation, human-centred climate services, recognising the social and behavioural factors of users, and integrating local knowledges with scientific data and knowledge.
(ii) Advance methods for integration and visualisation of local knowledge and data, including from citizen science, with science based sub-seasonal, seasonal forecasts and climate projections (e.g. from Copernicus and GEOSS).
(iii) Develop insight into the feedbacks, causal mechanisms and cross-sectoral influences between climate change and adaptation actions, across hazard types.
(iv) Work closely with citizens, decision makers and stakeholders to demonstrate the value of human-centred climate services in 7 Living Labs (LL) established in climate change hotspots in Europe and Africa.
(v) Upscale the use of climate information in risk management and planning across sectors through tools and capacities to strengthen the (European) climate services sector.
(vi) Multiply the storylines from the 7 LL to citizens, across sectors and to policy; contributing to the consolidation of climate information in supporting climate adaptation solutions and increasing resilience to climatic extremes.
The main objective of the I-CISK project is to develop next-generation CS that follow a social and behaviourally informed approach and that meet the climate information needs of citizens, decision makers and stakeholders at the spatial and temporal scale relevant to them. Six specific objectives have been defined:
(i) Develop a framework for co-creating next-generation, human-centred climate services, recognising the social and behavioural factors of users, and integrating local knowledges with scientific data and knowledge.
(ii) Advance methods for integration and visualisation of local knowledge and data, including from citizen science, with science based sub-seasonal, seasonal forecasts and climate projections (e.g. from Copernicus and GEOSS).
(iii) Develop insight into the feedbacks, causal mechanisms and cross-sectoral influences between climate change and adaptation actions, across hazard types.
(iv) Work closely with citizens, decision makers and stakeholders to demonstrate the value of human-centred climate services in 7 Living Labs (LL) established in climate change hotspots in Europe and Africa.
(v) Upscale the use of climate information in risk management and planning across sectors through tools and capacities to strengthen the (European) climate services sector.
(vi) Multiply the storylines from the 7 LL to citizens, across sectors and to policy; contributing to the consolidation of climate information in supporting climate adaptation solutions and increasing resilience to climatic extremes.
From the inception of the project, work performed has contributed towards the objectives through collaboration within the team and with diverse stakeholders in 7 Living Labs. 10 points summarise results achieved so far:
(i) Collaboration in the multi-disciplinary research team is founded on a common language and understanding, sharing opinions and values, with frequent meetings and internal training. This joint learning strengthens the team, and is also disseminated to the wider climate services (CS) community. Several early career scientists (ECS) contribute substantially to research in the project.
(ii) Seven Living Labs (LL) have been operationalised in Europe (NL, ES, IT, HU, GR, GE) and in Lesotho, providing the basis for research. Multi-actor platforms (MAP) in each comprise >50 stakeholder organisations and >150 individuals. 15 CS are being co-created in these LL.
(iii) A novel theory of change (ToC) approach has been developed within the project. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) support Monitoring and Evaluation.
(iv) A prototype CS co-creation framework has been developed and is used in the LL, contributing to refining and improving the framework. Steps carried out include; iterative co-exploring of CS needs; mapping decision spaces and co-identifying adaptation actions; and decision timelines to understand how decisions are made and local and scientific knowledges used.
(v) Research on local knowledge (LK) has developed a new definition of LK in CS; as well as who the holders of LK are, and how local and scientific knowledges can be combined.
(vi) The skill of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts over Europe and the LL, based on the state-of-the art, has been assessed and improved through advanced machine learning methods.
(vii) Hydrological impact models, downscaled using local data, have been applied to explore climate change impacts on extremes, uncovering region specific trends across Europe and the LL.
(viii) A framework has been developed to explore human-system dynamics and feedbacks in adaptation strategies supported by CS. System dynamics archetypes help uncover maladaptive practices, providing key insights and helping develop more balanced strategies.
(ix) An innovative I-CISK web-based platform has been implemented and configured to launch beta versions of 15 pre-operational CS in the LL. These integrate Copernicus, GEO, and local data. Business and exploitation strategies are being developed to foster sustainability of co-created CS.
(x) A website with regular news and events and project outputs; social media; newsletters; journal & conference publications; side events, and science-policy interfacing at high-level meetings (UN, WMO, UNESCO, ECCA, etc) have contributed to outreach, as has collaboration with other EU projects and liaison with the Green Deal Support Office.
(i) Collaboration in the multi-disciplinary research team is founded on a common language and understanding, sharing opinions and values, with frequent meetings and internal training. This joint learning strengthens the team, and is also disseminated to the wider climate services (CS) community. Several early career scientists (ECS) contribute substantially to research in the project.
(ii) Seven Living Labs (LL) have been operationalised in Europe (NL, ES, IT, HU, GR, GE) and in Lesotho, providing the basis for research. Multi-actor platforms (MAP) in each comprise >50 stakeholder organisations and >150 individuals. 15 CS are being co-created in these LL.
(iii) A novel theory of change (ToC) approach has been developed within the project. Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) support Monitoring and Evaluation.
(iv) A prototype CS co-creation framework has been developed and is used in the LL, contributing to refining and improving the framework. Steps carried out include; iterative co-exploring of CS needs; mapping decision spaces and co-identifying adaptation actions; and decision timelines to understand how decisions are made and local and scientific knowledges used.
(v) Research on local knowledge (LK) has developed a new definition of LK in CS; as well as who the holders of LK are, and how local and scientific knowledges can be combined.
(vi) The skill of seasonal and sub-seasonal forecasts over Europe and the LL, based on the state-of-the art, has been assessed and improved through advanced machine learning methods.
(vii) Hydrological impact models, downscaled using local data, have been applied to explore climate change impacts on extremes, uncovering region specific trends across Europe and the LL.
(viii) A framework has been developed to explore human-system dynamics and feedbacks in adaptation strategies supported by CS. System dynamics archetypes help uncover maladaptive practices, providing key insights and helping develop more balanced strategies.
(ix) An innovative I-CISK web-based platform has been implemented and configured to launch beta versions of 15 pre-operational CS in the LL. These integrate Copernicus, GEO, and local data. Business and exploitation strategies are being developed to foster sustainability of co-created CS.
(x) A website with regular news and events and project outputs; social media; newsletters; journal & conference publications; side events, and science-policy interfacing at high-level meetings (UN, WMO, UNESCO, ECCA, etc) have contributed to outreach, as has collaboration with other EU projects and liaison with the Green Deal Support Office.
The project has in the 36 months since its inception progressed the state-of-the-art in the broad context of climate services:
(i) Multi-actor platforms are established in 7 Living Labs (LL), with >50 stakeholder organisations and >150 individuals from diverse sectors, public & private entities. 15 pre-operational Climate Services in these LL represent key innovations, serving to inform best practice in CS co-creation.
(ii) A novel prototype framework for co-creation of CS has been developed and is being refined and updated in the LL. The final framework is a key output, supported by guidelines and educational materials. This will serve the CS community in developing next generation human-centred climate services.
(iii) The framework includes approaches that (i) apply decision timelines to co-identify the decisions users make to support livelihood or sectoral activities, and how local and scientific knowledges are used, and (ii) co-identify coping and adaptation strategies and map decisions spaces. These are essential advances to human-centred design of climate services.
(iv) A new definition of local knowledge has been established. This is useful to co-creation of CS across sectors, governance levels, both in the Global South and Global North. It equally acknowledges local and scientific knowledge, contributing to better integration.
(v) A novel framework has been tested to evaluate maladaptive practices due to decisions that may prove unsustainable. Through system dynamics archetypes this provides insights in human-system dynamics, fostering a balanced approach to short- and long-term adaptation.
(vi) Research on the seasonal forecast skill of hydrological extremes over Europe provides new insights on patterns and drivers of skill, and how novel machine learning methods improve skill through bias-correction, including through use of local data.
(vii) A novel theory-of-change approach to evaluation of the impacts of this project has been developed. This M&E approach can be adapted to other CS projects and contexts.
(viii) A targeted communication and outreach strategy, and science-policy interfacing, is informing discourses on climate services co-creation, thus advancing the state-of-the-art of climate services.
(i) Multi-actor platforms are established in 7 Living Labs (LL), with >50 stakeholder organisations and >150 individuals from diverse sectors, public & private entities. 15 pre-operational Climate Services in these LL represent key innovations, serving to inform best practice in CS co-creation.
(ii) A novel prototype framework for co-creation of CS has been developed and is being refined and updated in the LL. The final framework is a key output, supported by guidelines and educational materials. This will serve the CS community in developing next generation human-centred climate services.
(iii) The framework includes approaches that (i) apply decision timelines to co-identify the decisions users make to support livelihood or sectoral activities, and how local and scientific knowledges are used, and (ii) co-identify coping and adaptation strategies and map decisions spaces. These are essential advances to human-centred design of climate services.
(iv) A new definition of local knowledge has been established. This is useful to co-creation of CS across sectors, governance levels, both in the Global South and Global North. It equally acknowledges local and scientific knowledge, contributing to better integration.
(v) A novel framework has been tested to evaluate maladaptive practices due to decisions that may prove unsustainable. Through system dynamics archetypes this provides insights in human-system dynamics, fostering a balanced approach to short- and long-term adaptation.
(vi) Research on the seasonal forecast skill of hydrological extremes over Europe provides new insights on patterns and drivers of skill, and how novel machine learning methods improve skill through bias-correction, including through use of local data.
(vii) A novel theory-of-change approach to evaluation of the impacts of this project has been developed. This M&E approach can be adapted to other CS projects and contexts.
(viii) A targeted communication and outreach strategy, and science-policy interfacing, is informing discourses on climate services co-creation, thus advancing the state-of-the-art of climate services.