MPA Europe will map the optimal locations for Marine Protected Areas (MPA) in European seas using a holistic range of measures that encompass the range of biodiversity from species to ecosystems, including habitats, covering the Exclusive Economic Zones of Member States and associated countries and Atlantic oceanic islands (Figures 1, 2). Areas will be prioritised using systematic conservation planning software which enables alternative weighting of variables and multiple scenarios based on stakeholder preferences, and thus support wider marine spatial planning. For example, it may be preferred to locate MPA near and/or far from cities (so called “greening” of coastal cities could include blue areas), aquaculture sites, fish breeding areas, windfarms, protected areas on land and where species of high conservation or cultural importance are concentrated. The contribution of the biodiversity in such areas to the European MPA network can then be judged. State-of-the-art environmental niche models will map current biodiversity richspots and estimate how species and biogenic (biological) habitat distributions might change in and outside the MPA network due to warming caused by future anthropogenic climate change, as we and others have documented (Burrows et al., 2011, 2014, 2019, Pinsky et al. 2013, 2019, 2020, Assis et al. 2017b, c, McLean et al. 2019, Chaudhary et al. 2021). A novel carbon indicator mapping methodology will be developed and trialled to map where carbon capture and sinks are most likely to occur, and thus judge the risks of their release due to seabed disturbance (Sala et al. 2021).
The project is ambitious in committing to achieve several firsts in terms of products based on new data and analyses.
Maps of an optimal MPA network in European seas prioritised for biodiversity protection, blue carbon benefits and both together covering 10% and 30% of the seas area at a spatial resolution of 0.05 degrees (~5 km)
In accordance with the Convention on Biological Diversity definition of biodiversity (the variation within and between species and of ecosystems), this project will quantify biodiversity by integrating European-wide species richness and composition including endemicity, seabed habitats and communities (i.e. biotopes), surface and near seabed pelagic ecosystems (newly mapped using statistical methods) using spatial prioritisation algorithms, and thus includes the ecosystem structures and processes that provide ecosystem goods and services
Maps of species richness in European seas based on multiple indicators, including actual observed data, statistical estimators, and modelled geographic range maps of about 15,000 of the ~30,000 species in European seas
Potential geographic distributions of important biogenic habitats in European seas, including seagrass meadows, kelp forests, fucoid seaweeds, maerl (rhodolith) beds and Lophelia reefs.
The first data-driven classification of ecosystems in shallow and deep European seas based on a new comprehensive dataset of high-resolution environmental layers for bioclimatic modelling, including a wave exposure index and current and future climate velocity maps
An online European marine biodiversity atlas for use by researchers, students, teachers, and in Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) by policy makers, industry and NGOs that ensures project traceability, transparency and reproducibility, including: key environmental variables for present-day and future climatologies (depth, rugosity, temperature, salinity, primary productivity, nutrient concentration, dissolved oxygen, wave exposure, etc.), ecosystems, biomes, habitats, species richness, species endemicity and rarity, threatened species and habitats locations, and “blue carbon” stores.
Underpinning the science behind these products will be peer-reviewed papers justifying the statistical rigour of the methods and validating them through comparisons between variables and data layers so that the products make sense from both theoretical and practical viewpoints.
By taking this interdisciplinary approach, combining physical, chemical, and biological data, empirical field observations and state-of-the-art models, the project considers the breadth of biodiversity as defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). In addition, it will include carbon sequestration benefits and consequences of future climate change on species and biological habitat distributions as recently being proposed in conservation initiatives (e.g. Roberts et al. 2017. Duarte et al. 2020, Laffoley 2020, Hutto et al. 2021). This will inform regional and national policy on how to best protect biodiversity, maximise climate change mitigation through blue carbon benefits, while adjusting the use of natural resources to be environmentally sustainable (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2019). It will contribute to achieving the international targets of achieving 30% of the oceans in MPA by 2030, as agreed by European countries within the CBD Global Biodiversity Framework. This approach therefore supports incorporating adaptation and mitigation actions into Maritime Spatial Planning, allowing planning processes to respond to climate change. By taking a pan-European seas approach to mapping aspects of biodiversity and blue carbon (see below), this supports more coherent MPA designation and more integrated and coherent maritime spatial planning at the sea basin level. It will directly contribute to implementing the European Green Deal (European Commission 2019), Habitats Directive and Natura 2000, Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Maritime Spatial Planning and the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030. While this project is focused on environmental and biological data it includes a social (and associated economic) dimension by engaging with stakeholders to assess how they view the proposed MPA network and prioritisation algorithms. These stakeholder views will help define future research and planning priorities.
